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Space Weather M3 Problem Set:  (Please hand write answers. Thanks)

1. In the Module 3 folder there is a movie entitled “CME 2017.” Pick four frames in the CME movie (see below) and use them to calculate the velocity of the CME for three time intervalsand the acceleration for two intervals. 

2. You will have to estimate some of the distances and identify CME features to track between frames.  What are two challenges in determining precise values of velocity and acceleration for a CME?

3. Use the table in Lecture 3E Slide 6and the images in the Module 3 folder showing magnetic latitudes and the map of ground conductivity for this problem.  For a 100-year storm, what is the ratio of the strength of the geoelectric field in Minneapolis, Minnesota, with that of Dallas, Texas?
 
Assume a 4800 nT/min geomagnetic storm disturbance hit the United States.  You are tasked with estimating the economic damage resulting from the storm.

1. If there were no power outages, how much impact (in dollars) would there be in the United States just from the “value of lost load?”  Assume 200 GW of lost load for 10 hours and a “value of lost load” of $7,500 per MWh.   

2. If two large power grids collapse and 130 million people are without power for 2 months, how much economic impact would that cause to the United States?  Explain the assumptions you are making in your estimate.
 
3. If every country above 40° magnetic latitude had a similar proportion of its economy impacted, what would the global economic impact (in dollars) be?
 
4. Imagine you are tasked with a cost/benefit analysis on upgrading power grids to prevent power outages during a magnetic storm.  You have already determined that the proposed upgrades must prevent $10 billion in expected economic damage for the benefit to justify the cost.

5. If the upgrades moved the estimated damage from the value you calculated in part (b) to the value you calculated in part (a), what would the odds of a 4800 nT/min geomagnetic storm disturbance over the next 10 years have to be to justify the expense?  Are those odds greater or lower than the reported 12% odds of a Carrington-level storm in 10 years?

ECON 2513 Global Economic History

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