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ACC73002 Business Analytics and Big Data

Question

Answered

Task:

Instructions:

You are hired as a data analyst to prepare a short report that examines the annual dividend returns for Coca-Cola shares between 2001 and 2013 using the data contained in the spreadsheet <coke>. You have also been asked to forecast the annual dividend return for 2014.

Your report must be structured as follows:

1. Purpose 

In this section, the purpose of the report needs to be clearly and concisely stated.

2. Background 

In this section, write a brief review of annual dividend returns for Coca-Cola shares.

3. Method 

In this section, the data source and empirical approach used to examine annual dividend returns needs to be detailed.

4. Results

In this section, you need to present and summarize the results from your statistical analysis. In particular, the results section must:

a. Describe and plot the data. 

b. Calculate and explain the lhe linear trend forecasting equation

c. Calculate and explain the quadratic trend forecasting equation.

d. Calculate and explain the exponential trend forecasting equation (use LOG10 to transform the dependent variable) .

e. Find and explain the best-fitting autoregressive model using α = 0.05 (i.e., estimate a 1-lag model, 2-lag model, and 3-lag model and select the best fitting model).

f. Perform a residual analysis for each model (b) to (e) and create a combined residual plot.

g. Examine the standard error for the estimate (SYX) and R2 for each corresponding model in (f). Present these results in a single table.

h. Based on your results in (f) and (g), together with a consideration of parsimony,which model would you select for purposes of forecasting? Discuss. 

i. Using the selected model in (h), forecast the annual dividend return for 2014.

ACC73002 Business Analytics and Big Data

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