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ASB2411 Quantitative Methods For Business

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Question:

In the spreadsheet file Country assignment_2017.xlsx (available on Blackboard), you have been assigned to study consumer price inflation in two countries, Country A and Country B. (The pair of countries assigned is different for each student).

Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the period 1979-2010 for your two assigned countries can be extracted from the spreadsheet file cpi.xlsx. (The data in this file for all other countries should be ignored!)

  1. Using the formula , where ptis the annual percentage rate of inflation between years t–1 and t, and pt is the value of the CPI in year t, calculate pt for each year from t=1980 to t=2010 for Country A and for Country B. Using these data, complete the following table of descriptive statistics
  2. country A for the period 1980-2010. 
  3. country B for the period 1980-2010. 
  4. Assuming that the annual inflation rates of Countries A and B are normally distributed, and interpreting each country’s data on ptfor the period 1980-1999 as a random sample of 20 observations drawn from a fixed population distribution of all possible inflation rates for each country, construct the following confidence intervals, commenting briefly on what the confidence interval is demonstrating:
  5. 95% confidence interval for the population mean inflation rate of Country A.
  6. 99% confidence interval for the population mean inflation rate of Country A.
  7. 95% confidence interval for the population mean inflation rate of Country B.
  8. 90% confidence interval for the population mean inflation rate of Country B. 
  9. Assuming that the annual inflation rates of Countries A and B are normally distributed, and interpreting each country’s data on ptas a random sample, use appropriate hypothesis tests to evaluate the following assertions concerning the (population) mean inflation rates of Countries A and B.  Use a significance level of α=0.05.  Briefly comment on your answers.Country A’s (population) mean inflation throughout the period 1980-2010 was
  1. Country B’s (population) mean inflation throughout the period 2000-2010 was less than 3.5%. 
  1. Country A’s (population) mean inflation during the 11-year period of euro membership 2000-2010 was significantly less than Country A’s (population) mean inflation during the 20-year period prior to euro membership 1980-1999. [Treat the observations on ptfor the two periods as independent samples.]
  2. Country A’s (population) mean inflation during the period 2000-2010 was significantly different from Country B’s (population) mean inflation during the same period. [Treat the samples of observations on ptfor the two countries during the period 2000-2010 as matched pairs.], an applicant for EU membership, has an annual inflation rate that is known to behave as a normally distributed random variable, with a population mean and population variance identical to the numbers for the sample mean and sample variance reported for Country A during the period 2000-2010 (see Q1).
  1. Calculate the probability that Country C’s inflation rate in any future year is less than 1.5%. 
  1. Calculate the probability that Country C’s inflation rate in any future year is greater than 2.5%. 
  1. Calculate the probability that Country C’s average inflation rate over the next 4 years is greater than 2%. 
  1. Using the data on ptin Country B for t=1980 to t=1999 (20 observations), calculate p = the proportion of years in which Country B’s rate of inflation was greater than 5%.

In a certain emerging country D, which has an economic structure similar to that of Country B during the 1980s and 1990s, episodes of annual inflation above 5% are known to occur randomly, with a probability of p (as calculated above). The Governor of Country D’s central bank had set a maximum annual inflation target of 5% in each of the next 6 years.

  1. Calculate the probability that Country D’s inflation target will not be breached in any of the next 6 years. 
  1. Calculate the probability that Country D’s inflation target will be breached in exactly 2 of the next 6 years. 
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[Accessed 28 September 2021].

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My Assignment Help. Quantitative Methods For Business [Internet]. My Assignment Help. 2021 [cited 28 September 2021]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/asb2411-quantitative-methods-for-business/consumer-price-index.html.


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