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BAFI1002 Financial Markets Review View

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Question:

To complete the market view, you are required to analyse one currency pair out of the following currencies: AUD, USD,  JPY, EUR and GBP.
 
You can choose any combination of these currencies, so something like AUD/USD and AUD/JPY is acceptable, and so is AUD/USD and JPY/GBP. You are required to analyse what will happen to these exchange rates in the next 3-6 months. Based on the theory that you have learnt in class in the FX topic (exchange rate determination), you are required to analyse these exchange rates based on the economic indicators of the respective countries. The indicators you learn in this subject include relative interest rates, relative inflation rates, relative growth rates, government intervention and exchange rate expectation. You may also use other factors that may affect the exchange rate (e.g. commodity prices in Australia). It is a  good idea to use at least three of the indicators that you have learnt in class if you want your market view to be strong. In your analysis, if you have looked at a particular indicator, you must write why you believe that this indicator will cause a currency to appreciate or depreciate against another.
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