Influence of the change in initial probability estimates by the UWS technical staffs
In the case of UWS Technical solutions, the specifications outlined by their client, required packaged software, which would not be cost effective for the concerned company. The decision of the UWS Technical solutions being chosen for the outsourcing of the web and mobile applications of the ARS Company decided to adopt any one of the four possible software applications for the application development. The seven stages of decision making suggests that the process of decision making can be divided in to seven steps which involves identifying the decision to be taken, gathering proper information to make the decision a success, researching the alternatives with proper evidences and the final step includes choosing from the alternatives and reviewing the decision (Velasquez and Hester 2013). As per the seven stages of decision-making, seven steps includes identifying the decision, gathering relevant information, identifying alternatives, examining the alternatives, choosing from the alternatives, implementation of the decision and the last step involves reviewing of the final decision. The engineers of the UWS solution have clearly applied the seven stages of decision-making by identifying that a decision should be made on which software would ensure maximum probability of success both for their client as well as for the company itself. Relevant information regarding the cost and the effective output of software are gathered which in turn shaped their decision making process also the alternatives of each of the software are researched. Weighing each of the alternatives the UWS chose to draw a final decision based on the best alternative. The sixth stage of decision-making helped the UWS employees to reduce the risk of the uncertainty of their deliverables. The last step of the decision-making process that involves reviewing the decision before implementation will allow the engineers to predict the consequences of their decision before hand (Levy 2015).
Influence of the probability estimates and the uncertainty of the decision
The decision-making process of the UWS Technological Solution involves potential uncertainty. The implementation of the Software packages B, C, D may turn out to be successful or unsuccessful depending on the discrepancies of the applied technology. Apart from this, their lies potential risk on the chances of running the software on both web application as well as the mobile-based application. As the probability estimates suggests, the cost of developing the software A, B, C and D varies and their chances of successful compilation varies from platform to platform. Although UWS Technological Solutions have mapped their decision with the aid of seven stages of decision-making but still there lies a potential risk and uncertainty of the decision. The probability estimates have also helped in shaping the decision making process for the company (Kahneman and Tversky 2013). Considering the company benefits and the required service of their respective clients the UWS Technology Solutions is expected to give a much more importance to not only their own benefits but also their service quality. Compromising the cost can turn out to be both profitable and risky at the same time (Ford and Richardson 2013). The probability estimates have greatly influenced the decision making process of the UWS team.
Ford, R.C. and Richardson, W.D., 2013. Ethical decision making: A review of the empirical literature. In Citation classics from the Journal of Business Ethics (pp. 19-44). Springer, Dordrecht.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 2013. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. In Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making: Part I (pp. 99-127).
Levy, H., 2015. Stochastic dominance: Investment decision making under uncertainty. Springer.
Velasquez, M. and Hester, P.T., 2013. An analysis of multi-criteria decision making methods. International Journal of Operations Research, 10(2), pp.56-66.