Understanding The Threat Posed By ISIS To America, An Essay.

Using the knowledge you have learned in this course evaluating various terrorist groups and the threat they pose, use the Intelligence Cycle (Note Week Two, readings and forums) to help demonstrate your understanding of the threat posed by ISIS to the America. Develop an intelligence request and provide recommendations to law enforcement agencies from the Department of Homeland Security on how to counter the ISIS/ISIL threat. Your Final Project must address the following:

1. Understanding the Threat.Summarize who ISIS/ISIL is and why ISIS/ISIL is a threat to America.
2. Intelligence Assets and Capability.Based on the threat, select three intelligence agencies to generate actionable intelligence on ISIS/ISIL. Describe the capabilities of the intelligence asset and the type of intelligence gathered by the intelligence agency. Finally, explain how the combination of the three intelligence assets will work together to provide a better understanding of the threat, the methods, and capabilities of ISIS/ISIL.
3. Develop a Request For Intelligence(RFI). Based on your analysis of the threat, voids in intelligence on the threat, and the available intelligence assets, develop a specific request for intelligence (RFI) from the appropriate intelligence agencies to identify future intelligence requirements.
4. DHS Recommendations to Law Enforcement Agencies.Provide a minimum of two recommendations from DHS to law enforcement agencies to adjust operations to counter the ISIS/ISIL threat to America.

How ISIS is a threat to America

Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) is also known as Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) or Islamic State (IS) or by the acronym ‘Daesh’. They have been labelled as a terrorist organization by the United Nations and is mainly comprised of the Salafi group of Jihadist, a fundamentalist faction from Iraq and Syria following the Sunni doctrine called Salafi.

They have been accused by International organizations of human rights abuses, war crimes and ethnic cleansing (cia.gov, 2018). ISIS started as a faction of Al Qaeda based in Iraq where they played a key role in the Iraqi insurgency after it was invaded in 2003 by United States and its allies. After ceasing control over several provinces in the west and north of Iraq and declared themselves as a ‘Caliphate’with the name Islamic State. The ISIS later expanded to the eastern part of Syria by 2015, as some of the members from the Free Syrian Army started to join ISIS (Gray, 2014; wilsoncenter.org, 2018).

In the areas under the control of ISIS, a strict Sharia law was followed, that shunned every form of modernism, and subjected its people to immense cruelty. Harshest of punishments were doled out to anyone not following their laws, and the faction was actively involved in recruiting mercenaries to terrorize sits neighborhood regions, in the attempt to destabilize them and spread its control even further (Blanchard & Humud, 2018). By 2014, ISIS became independent of Al Qaida because of conflicts between Abu Bakr AL Baghdadi who was the leader of ISIS and Al Zawahiri from the leadership of Al Qaida. ISIS wanted to take a more aggressive approach in its actions (Mazzetti et al., 2017; Archick et al., 2015).

How ISIS is a threat to America: 

ISIS follows a radical Islamic view of the world that is based on the concepts of sharia (the word of god) and jihad (holy war) against all infidels and apostates. The group’s ambition is to develop an Islamic control over the world and fight against the influence of western culture (Mazzetti et al., 2017).

They promote religious violence and ethnic cleansing and superiority of Islam over other religions. It also condemns any muslim who does not follow the scripture as infidels and apostates and considers people from the Shia Islamic Group as unworthy. Adopting the ‘Seal of Muhammed’ on their flag clearly shows their intentions to restore the system of caliphate that existed in the early Islamic ages, and according to some authors, their ideologies have been significantly influenced by the ideologies of the post Ottomanic Islamic group called the  Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt in the 1920’s (bbc.com, 2018).

Intelligence Assets and Capability

Since its formation ISIS have been engaged in the recruitment of fighters from all over the world through its aggressive propaganda, many of these recruits are from the western countries. These ‘radicalized’ individuals trained by ISIS are then used to execute terrorist plots across the western countries. Many of such terrorist attacks have been targeted for cities in the United States, where different American Citizens claiming allegiance to the ISIS have planned shootouts or bombings. These activities have significantly affected the homeland security in United States, as well the safety of thousands of Americans living abroad in regions under the influence of ISIS and their operatives (Humud et al., 2018).

Since ISIS has singled our United States and United Kingdom as the main targets for their ‘Jihad’, it makes this organization particularly threat to the peace of these nations. Some of the most prominent activities of the ISIS includes ethnic cleansing, abductions, extortions and human trafficking, apart from organizing terrorist activities in different western countries and publicly executing their prisoners (abcnews.go.com, 2015; cbsnews.com, 2018). They finance themselves primarily through extortions, smuggling or arms and historic artifacts and selling oil produced in the areas under their control to fund their terrorist activities (Humud et al., 2015).

2. Intelligence Assets and Capability 

Three Intelligence Assets that can provide actionable intelligence on ISIS can include:

Central Intelligence Agency: 

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is a foreign intelligence agency operated by the US Federal Government. The organization has the task of collecting; processing and analyzing intelligence data related to national security from around the world using human intelligence and is a primary member of the US Intelligence Community (cia.gov, 2018; Pedlow & Welzenbach, 2016). The organization reports to the Director Of national Intelligence and provides intelligence to the US President and Cabinet.  

The agency is capable of covert intelligence operations through which they can collect information of critical intelligence on national security and have been involved in several espionage as well as training of mercenaries abroad to fight terrorism (Lowenthal, 2016). He type of intelligence information gathered by the agency includes  intelligence data from overseas on counter terrorism, non proliferation and weapons of mass destruction, counter intelligence, cyber intelligence and warning from US leaders in overseas events (Mazzetti et al., 2017; Archick et al., 2015).

Federal Bureau of Investigation: 

The federal Bureau of Investigation is a domestic intelligence agency in US, acting as the primary law enforcement agency in the country, working under the US Department of Justice and a member of US Intelligence Community reporting to the Director of National Intelligence and Attorney General of US (fbi.gov, 2018).  The function of the FBI includes protecting US from terrorist attacks, espionage, foreign intelligence operations and cyber attacks. They are highly capable of collecting intelligence data within US, conduct surveillance and investigations within the country and also coordinate with other intelligence agencies from time to time. The type of data gathered by the agency is primarily domestic data related to national security (Ronczkowski, 2017).

Central Intelligence Agency

Interpol: 

Interpol is the abbreviation for International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) is an international police agency with representatives from more than 100 nations and is focused on the maintenance of public safety and stopping international; crimes like violations of human rights, crimes against humanity, genocide, human trafficking, smuggling of weapons and war crimes (interpol.int, 2018). The agency helps to coordinate police agencies from various countries, providing a central repository of international police records in order to monitor and prevent crimes. Their database mainly comprises of police records and counter, profiles of known criminals as well as counter intelligence records which can be tracked across borders thereby helping to track known terrorists (Stock, 2017).

How the three intelligence assets can work together to provide a better understanding of the threat: 

Intelligence data gathered from CIA, FBI and Interpol can be used to generate actionable intelligence on ISIS from both outside USA as well as within the country. CIA can be actively involved in covert surveillance and espionage of ISIS related targets in both Syria and Iraq from where they primarily operate (Blanchard & Humud, 2018; Humud et al., 2015). The Interpol can also provide information on known criminals who are engaged by the ISIS as their fighters and mercenaries, and follow their movement across western nations and especially to US. Interpol can also help to coordinate the intelligence data from other agencies to develop an actionable intelligence on ISIS. The FBI can be involved in the home front in the collection and analysis of domestic intelligence data, informed by both CIA and Interpol on possible domestic security information which can help them to identify and prevent domestic terrorist acts (Lowenthal, 2016; Van Buren, 2015).

3. Request for Intelligence 

The following intelligence data needs to be gathered from the three intelligence agencies in order to identify future intelligence requirements:

From CIA: 

Data on terrorist activities:

Data on various terrorist activities across the world that are linked to ISIS can provide an information on how active they are and thus to assess their strengths and strategies which can help the FBI and Homeland Security to be prepared by any threats to US citizens by ISIS (Bash, 2017).

Data on weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons:

This can help the intelligence agencies to analyze whether ISIS has any WMD in their arsenal, and thus understand any possibility of ISIS using such weapons in their terrorist activities (Jones, 2015).

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Cyber Intelligence data:

This data can be used for the surveillance and monitoring of the online communication between ISIS operatives across the world and thus uncover and prevent any terrorist plots by them (Bash, 2017).

Counterintelligence and Counter terrorism intelligence:

CIA can also provide counterintelligence and counter terrorism data on ISIS from other countries to further develop understanding on the terrorist organization and their activities (Pedlow & Welzenbach, 2016).

From Interpol: 

The following data from the Interpol can also provide vital insights into the operations of ISIS across the world:

Crimes against humanity:

Crimes against humanity such as genocide and ethnic cleansing done by the ISIS around the world can help to understand the extent of the actions of the organizations and how it impacts the global security and also understand the extent to which they pose a threat to other countries, especially USA (Stock, 2017).

Human Trafficking:

ISIS have also been involved in human trafficking in many parts of the world, often with support from other terrorist organizations as seen in the case of Boko Haram from Nigeria who abducted several schoolgirls from Nigeria and selling them off to ISIS. This can also help to understand the extent to which their influence exists in the world.

Terrorists:

Data on known terrorists can also be collected and surveyed by the Interpol which can provide information related to their movement across various countries, especially USA and its allies and thus help to be prepared for any possible terrorist plots (Van Buren, 2015).

Weapons Smuggling:

Information of illegal weapons leaving or entering conflict zones can also help to monitor the risks of terrorism, and also prevent any possible terrorist threats (Van Buren, 2015).

From FBI: 

Domestic Incidents:

Information on domestic security incidents that might be related to ISIS can help to analyze the ISIS operations in the country and thus understand their impact within USA. Other security incidents that might be related to ISIS operatives in USA can also be used to understand their movement in the country and prevent any terrorist activities (Humud et al., 2015).

Communication Surveillance:

CIA can also provide intelligence on communication between ISIS operatives within the country through communication surveillance strategies. This can include both digital as well as physical data by intercepting suspicious communication messages in US and analyzing its link to ISIS or to identify a risk of a terrorist attack in US (Lowenthal, 2016; Ronczkowski, 2016).

Interpol

4. DHS Recommendations to Law Enforcement Agencies 

Based on the information above two important recommendations can be made for the Law Enforcement Agencies in US that can allow them to counter the threat posed by ISIS to America and Americans:

Focusing on all types of threats posed by ISIS (domestic and foreign):

It is vital to follow all types of terrorist activities of ISIS and its factions across the world to understand their current trajectory and modus operandi. It is equally important that the emergent threats posed by the organization are also taken into consideration since ISIS always tries to use new strategies and methods. It is therefore necessary that all forms of potential terrorist attacks across the world using various types of weapons such as explosives, lethal weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons as well as cyber attacks should be monitored (Gray, 2014). This can also provide important counter terrorism intelligence to the homeland security agencies which can be used to identify and prevent future attacks (abcnews.go.com, 2015; cbsnews.com, 2018; Gray, 2014).

The law enforcement agencies can also use the intelligence from CIA, FBI and Interpol to create a profile of potential ISIS operatives, and create a system of warning whenever known ISIS operatives enter the country. Any individuals or groups in US that claims allegiance to ISIS should also be closely monitored for any suspicious activities along with their associated to understand if they are involved in any terrorist plots in the homeland. Additionally, it is also vital that the law enforcement agencies share useful intelligence with other security agencies, and mobilize national security agencies to prevent any possible security incidents planned by the ISIS. It can also be useful for the intelligence agencies to follow the recruitment of operatives by ISIS, identifying any American citizen who might have joined the ISIS forces (Archick et al., 2015; Blanchard & Humud, 2018).

Mobilizing other Intelligence Agencies to stop ISIS

Law Enforcement Agencies in US can also play a key role in the mobilization of other intelligence agencies both within and outside USA, by sharing the intelligence related to ISIS and their operations in order to disrupt their activities both in USA and abroad and prevent them to coordinate their terrorist plots between different countries, a strategy that is significantly used by ISIS. Coordinating with other security and intelligence agencies across the world such as Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and Defense Intelligence of UK, Mossad of Israel, Iraqi National Intelligence Service of Iraq and Military Intelligence Service of Syria would also help to gather and coordinate intelligence related to ISIS from the conflict regions.

How the three intelligence assets can work together to provide a better understanding of the threat

Such intelligence can be useful for the Law Enforcement Agencies to identify potential of an impact for security incidents caused by SISI abroad on US national security (abcnews.go.com, 2015; cbsnews.com). It can also recommended that the federal law enforcement agencies coordinate with the state police whenever a security threat has been identified and develop a coordinated action plan to prevent its occurrence. This would require both the federal and state law enforcement agencies to modify their operations and work together in the same jurisdictions in order to prevent security risks in the country (Blanchard & Humud, 2018).

References:

abcnews.go.com. (2015). ISIS trail of Terror | Is ISIS a Threat to the U.S.?. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/WN/fullpage/isis-trail-terror-isis-threat-us-25053190

Archick,, K., Belkin, P., Blanchard, C., Humud, C., & Mix, D. (2015). European Fighters in Syria and Iraq: Assessments, Responses, and Issues for the United States. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44003.pdf

Bash, J. (2017). The Plan to Defeat ISIS: Key Decisions and Considerations. Hampton Roads International Security Quarterly, 1.

bbc.com. (2018). The war against ‘Islamic State’ in maps and charts. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034

Blanchard, C., & Humud, C. (2018). The Islamic State and U.S. Policy. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R43612.pdf

cbsnews.com. (2018). The fight against ISIS - CBS News. Retrieved from https://www.cbsnews.com/isis/

cia.gov. (2018). Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/index.html

cia.gov. (2018). The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2264.html

fbi.gov. (2018). Federal Bureau of Investigation. Retrieved from https://www.fbi.gov/

Gray, J. (2014). Isis: A thoroughly modern caliphate. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28246732

Humud, C., Blanchard, C., & Nikitin, M. (2018). Armed Confl ict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf

Humud, C., Pirog, R., & Rosen, L. (2015). Islamic State Financing and U.S. Policy Approaches. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R43980.pdf

interpol.int. (2018). INTERPOL. Retrieved from https://www.interpol.int/

Jones, C. (2015). In Battle Against ISIS, Saving Lives or Ancient Artifacts.

Lowenthal, M. M. (2016). Intelligence: From secrets to policy. CQ press.

Mazzetti,, M., Goldman, A., & Schmidt, M. (2017). Behind the Sudden Death of a $1 Billion Secret C.I.A. War in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/world/middleeast/cia-syria-rebel-arm-train-trump.html

Pedlow, G., & Welzenbach, D. (2016). The Central Intelligence Agency and Overhead Reconnaissance: The U-2 and OXCART Programs, 1954Ð1974. Skyhorse Publishing, Inc..

Ronczkowski, M. R. (2017). Terrorism and organized hate crime: Intelligence gathering, analysis and investigations. CRC press.

Stock, J. (2017, May). Breaking the Foreign Terrorist Fighter Cycle: an INTERPOL Perspective. In Sicherheit in einer digitalen Welt (pp. 61-68). Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG.

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