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Macroeconomic Data Analysis Of Singapore

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Question:

Analysis the Macroeconomic Data of Singapore.
 
 

Answer:

Introduction

Singapore is regarded as one of the most attractive destinations in the world for business. The companies from all around the world seek to set up their business in Singapore due to stable economic and political environment. The economic policies of the country focus on increasing trade and making the commercial sector transparent. In order to analyze the economy of Singapore in more detail, it is crucial to make an assessment of the macro economic factors such as gross domestic product, per capital income, unemployment rate, and inflation rates. The gross domestic product provides evaluation of the overall wealth of the economy while inflation indicates the rise in the price levels of the goods and services in the country. Further, the analysis of per capital income gives an overview of the living standards of the residents of the country. Apart from these factors, unemployment rate is also a crucial macro economic factors that provides overview of employment prosperity or problem of the country. In this context, the essay presented here provides an analysis of the economy of Singapore with the assessment of macroeconomic factors mentioned above.  

Production Output Performance Analysis

Definitions and Meaning

The output performance analysis of an economy relates to analysis of the gross domestic product (GDP).  The GDP refers to the total value of goods produced and services rendered in a fiscal year by the country. The value of GDP is computed by adding together the amount of consumer spending, government spending, investments of the country, and net exports. Further, in order make the trend analysis meaningful, the amount of GDP is adjusted for inflation converting the GDP to real GDP. The GDP per capita is computed by dividing total real GDP by the population of the country.  

 

Performance and Trend Analysis of the Singapore Economy

The Singapore economy has grown rapidly in the past decade as depicted from three times increase in the real GDP over the period. The real GDP of Singapore was $127.42 billion in the year 2005 which increase neatly three times to $306.64 billion in the year 2014. The detailed information about the real GDP and per capita GDP is presented in the table given below:

Table 1: Gross Domestic Product Data of Singapore: 2005 to 2014

Year

Real GDP ($ billion)

Growth rate

GDP per capita ($)

Growth rate

2005

                       127.42

 

    29,869.85

 

2006

                       147.80

15.99%

    33,579.86

12.42%

2007

                       179.98

21.78%

    39,223.58

16.81%

2008

                       192.23

6.80%

    39,721.05

1.27%

2009

                       192.41

0.09%

    38,577.56

-2.88%

2010

                       236.42

22.87%

    46,569.68

20.72%

2011

                       275.22

16.41%

    53,093.67

14.01%

2012

                       289.27

5.10%

    54,451.21

2.56%

2013

                       300.29

3.81%

    55,617.61

2.14%

2014

                       306.34

2.02%

    56,007.29

0.70%

(World Bank, 2016)

Figure 1: Real GDP ($ billion): Singapore

From the data presented in the table shown above, it could be observed that the figure of real GDP of Singapore has been increasing continuously. However, the grow rate as depicted in the chart can be observed to be fluctuating. The grow rate was massive in the year 2006 and 2007, in these years, the GDP grown by 15.99% and 21.78% respectively. However, in the year 2008 and 2009, GDP growth rate slopped downwards reaching 6.80% and 0.09% respectively. This severe fall down in the rate was the impact of global financial crisis that occurred in the year 2008-09. However, Singapore came back strongly overcoming the global financial crisis. The growth rate again picked up reaching 22.87% and 16.41% in the year 2010 and 2011 respectively. However, again in recent years, it was observed that the Singaporean economy is struggling with the GDP growth as depicted from the low growth rate of 2.02% in the year 2014. Further, the growth rate of GDP per capita has also been observed to be fluctuating in tandem with the growth in total GDP. The decrease in GDP per capita of Singapore is not only due to decrease in GDP with also because of increase in the population.         

 

Government’s Measures Enhance Output Growth

Singapore was one of the Asian countries which got affected by the global financial crisis of 2008-09 severely. In order to counter the recession caused by the global financial crisis, the government of Singapore took unprecedented measures by changing its monetary and fiscal policies (Liang, 2010). In the year 2009, the government announced job credit scheme to provide financial assistance to the companies as compensation to retain the employees. Further, the government also announced a special risk sharing program that helped in leveraging the risk position of the financial sector entities. Apart from that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) also took initiatives to improve the liquidity position of the banks and financial institutions. The MAS leveraged margin requirements of the banks to increase their liquidity (Liang, 2010). Taking these all measures, the government aimed at infusing more money in the economy so that the output (GDP) could be increased.  

Labor Market Analysis

Definitions and Meaning

The unemployment refers to the situation of being jobless. The rate of unemployment signifies the portion of workforce that is eligible for job but does not have the job in their hands. The analysis of rate of unemployment is crucial from the macroeconomic analysis perspective as it provides the understanding of the economic health of a country (Baumol & Blinder, 2008). There are different reasons that cause unemployment and based on these reasons there have been defined different types of unemployment. Primarily, the unemployment is classified into three categories such as structural, frictional, and cyclical. The structural unemployment arises commonly in every economy. It arises because certain job skills are considered outdated on inventions coming in the market (Baumol & Blinder, 2008).

The frictional unemployment is caused due to the workers being sitting idle deliberately. Some people wait for the right job opportunity and thus, they do not join the job until they get the right job. The Cyclical unemployment is crucial for every economy because this occurs when the economy is slopping down. The problems connected with the economy cause cyclical unemployment to arise (Baumol & Blinder, 2008).               

Unemployment Trend in Singapore

Reducing and keeping the unemployment under control has been the primary goal of the government of Singaporean in the past decade. In the year 2005, the unemployment rate of Singapore was observed to be 4.10% which reduced significantly to 1.70% in the year 2014. The detailed analysis of trend in unemployment rate is presented in the table and chart given below:

Table 2: Singapore Unemployment rate

Singapore Unemployment rate

Year

Unemployment rate

 

Rate

2005

4.10%

2006

3.60%

2007

3.00%

2008

3.20%

2009

4.30%

2010

3.10%

2011

2.90%

2012

2.80%

2013

2.80%

2014

1.70%

Figure 2: Trend in Singapore Unemployment Rate

From the chart, it could be observed that the unemployment rate in Singapore is showing downward trend, which is good for the economy. The unemployment rate decreased from 2005 to 2007 and then it increased slightly in the year 2008 and 2009. The rate rose from 3% to 3.20% in 2008 and then further increased to 4.30% in the year 2009. The global financial crisis and recession occurred in the year 2008 was the main reason for increase in the unemployment rate. However, recently, in the year 2014, the unemployment rate has been observed to be under control at 1.70%.   

Type of Unemployment in Singapore

The structural and frictional unemployment can not be eliminated in an economy. These will always be there in the economy as long as the unemployment rate does not become zero. However, the cyclical unemployment arises due to economy downturn and recession like situations. In the recent years, the Singaporean economy has been observed to be running smoothly without any severe economic problems. Therefore, the unemployment prevailing in Singapore can be said to be of two types such as structural and frictional (Econs, 2017).           

Government’s Measures to Achieve Full Employment

The government has made changes in the fiscal and monetary policies from time to time to control the unemployment in the country. In order to overcome the shock of global financial crisis of 2008-09, the Singaporean government adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The government made every effort to boost up the economy and create demand in the market so that more job opportunities can be created (Econs, 2017).   

Price Level Analysis

Meaning and Causes of Inflation

The rate of inflation is the macroeconomic factor being used for analysis of price levels of a country. The analysis of rate of inflation reveals the decreases or increases in the prices of goods and services over the period of time. Further, in other words, the inflation also refers to the purchasing power of money (Hamouda, 2011). When the rate of inflation goes up, the purchasing power of money is decreased conversely when the inflation goes down, the purchasing power of money increases. There are two crucial aspects having bearing on the inflation rate such as demand of goods and services and their supply. When the demand is excessively higher than the available supply, the prices of goods and service will increase causing the inflation to rise. This implies that when the economy is growing at fast rate, the inflation rate will be on higher side. Further, the rise in cost of manufacturing goods or providing services is also the reason for increase in the inflation rate (Eggertsson, 2003).     

 

Inflation Trend in Singapore

The inflation has been under control in Singapore in the past decade as depicted from the low rate of inflation. The trend in inflation over the period of past ten years from 2005 to 2014 could be observed from the table and chart given below:

Table 3: Inflation in Singapore

Year

inflation (CPI) rate

2005

2.23%

2006

1.72%

2007

5.86%

2008

-1.49%

2009

3.52%

2010

-0.05%

2011

1.11%

2012

0.73%

2013

-0.70%

2014

0.04%

Figure 3: Trend in Inflation Rate Singapore

From the chart presented above, it could be observed that the rate of inflation is showing fluctuating trend over the period of 10 years. In the year 2005, the rate of inflation in Singapore was 2.23% which decreased to 1.72% in 2006 and then increased to 5.86% in 2007. In the year 2008, the rate of inflation went negative depicting deflation in the economy. The deflation was also observed in the year 2010 when the rate of inflation when to -0.05%. The deflation in the year 2010 was the impact of global financial crisis and recession in the economy in the year 2008-09. In the year 2011, the rate increased to 1.11%, however, it again went negative reaching at -0.70% in the year 2013.

Causes of Inflation in Singapore

In the past few years, the Singapore economy has got hit by the deflation. The rate of inflation has gone negative on many occasions leading to deflation in the country. The main reason for deflation in the economy has been observed to be the decrease in the prices of crude oil. Consequent upon the decline in oil prices, the cost of accommodation and transportation reduced significantly (Min, 2014).     

 

Government’s Measures to Control Inflation

The economy of Singapore has been facing low inflation or even deflationary situations on occasions. Considering the state of economy, the government has taken steps from time to time to keep the rate of inflation under control and balanced. In order to revive the economy from deflationary situation, the government is striving to make the fiscal and monetary policies expansionary. However, there have not been seen any significant improvement in the regards to the rate of interest (Focus-economics, 2017). In the past 5 years the rate of interest has been observed to be around 0.25% as depicted below:

Figure 4: Interest rate in Singapore (Focus-economics, 2017)

Conclusion

This essay discusses the macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and the rate of inflation in the context of the Singaporean economy. From the overall discussion carried out, it could be articulated that the Singaporean economy is facing slow down as far as growth rate of GDP is concerned. Further, the per capita income of the country has also been observed to be falling down, which indicates decline in the living standard of the residents. The slow economy growth is affecting the unemployment and inflation adversely. The inflation rate of Singapore has been very low depicting deflationary conditions in the economy. The major point for consideration of the Singapore government is to enhance the economic growth by adopting expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. There is a need to increase the flow of money in the market.  

 

References                            

Baumol, W. & Blinder, A. 2008. Economics: Principles and Policy. Cengage Learning.

Econs. 2017. Singapore Unemployment. Retrieved March 10, 2016, from https://www.econs.com.sg/essay-writing/5-singapore-has-maintained-an-annual-unemployment-rate-at-approximately-2-since-2010-it-was-1-9-in-2013-discuss-the-effectiveness-of-policies-that-singapore-government-currently-adopts-to-maintain/

Eggertsson, G.B. 2003. How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap: Committing to Being Irresponsible. International Monetary Fund. 

Focus-economics. 2017. MAS leaves policy band unchanged at October meeting. Retrieved March 10, 2016, from https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/singapore/interest-rate

Hamouda, O.F. 2011. Money, Investment and Consumption: Keynes's Macroeconomics Rethought. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Heritage. 2017. 2017 Index of Economic Freedom: Singapore. Retrieved March 09, 2017, from https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore

Liang, T.J. 2010. The global financial crisis and policy response. Retrieved March 10, 2016, from https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/Knowledge/Pages/The-Global-Financial-Crisis-and-Policy-Responses.aspx

Min, C.Y. 2014. Singapore hit by first deflation in five years on falling global oil prices. Retrieved March 10, 2016, from https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-hit-by-first-deflation-in-five-years-on-falling-global-oil-prices

World Bank. (2016). Macroeconomic data of Singapore. Retrieved March 10, 2016, from https://data.worldbank.org/country/singapore

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