country
$20 Bonus + 25% OFF
Securing Higher Grades Costing Your Pocket? Book Your Assignment at The Lowest Price Now!

Operators And Development Organisations In Tourism

tag 0 Download7 Pages / 1,564 Words tag Add in library Click this icon and make it bookmark in your library to refer it later. GOT IT

Question:

Discuss about the Operators and Development Organisations in Tourism .
 
 

Answer:

Introduction

Tourism is a major foreign exchange earner for Australia. In cities like Sydney, the arrival of tourists depends greatly on theme tourists. Such tourists, who come in groups, are visiting this magnificent city with the purpose of exploring the various cultural aspects of Australia. For economic and social reasons, forecasts about tourist arrivals becomes important as it enables the various tourism related sectors of the country such as airlines, hotels and other service providers. This forecasting also helps all these stakeholders in making preparation for the expected number of tourists at a given future period, assert Buhalis & Crotts, (2013). This paper makes the attempt at forecasting arrival of tourists, especially in Sydney, by using the ‘Statistical Time Series Modelling Techniques’. Techniques used by the author include “Double Exponential Smoothing” and “Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average” (ARIMA). All the data related to arrival of tourists in Sydney has been obtained from Australia Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Trade Commission and Department of Tourism, Government of New South Wales, as per Erskine & Meyer, (2012). The author has used the tourist arrivals for the period 2006 to 2015 for model validation.

Arrivals of international tourists and the revenues generated from these international tourists have been used by nations across the globe as benchmark aggregate series for arriving at an assessment of the importance of tourism by specific countries. Nations often make use of advertising campaigns and international political discussion forums for arriving at a higher international tourist arrivals level so as to emphasize the success of their country in the international community, say Evans, Stonehouse & Campbell, (2012). On the same scale, a sizeable increase in international tourist revenues become a good indicator of the role played by tourism in the economy of a nation when assessing its Gross Domestic Product and foreign exchange generation. Subsequently, the policy makers get convinced and assist in development of tourism and to further increase the profitability from these enhanced tourism activities. In Australia, the overseas visitors contributed about 25% of the total tourism earnings of the country. In 2014-15, the revenue generated from overseas visitors was $32 billion and it represented about 11% of Australia’s total export revenue, asserts Harris, (2012).

Tourism Forecasting Methodology

Rapid global growth of the tourism industry across all nations in the past 20 years is instrumental in contributing highly to the economy of that nation. The research data provided by World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has shown that output value of global tourism, including other sectors related to tourism, was US$5.474 trillion and this was 9.4% of the Global GDP in 2009. According to WITC, this output value of global tourism industry may reach US$10.478 trillion, generating 9.5% of Global GDP by 2019, as detailed by Gilligan & Hird, (2012).

Methodologies used for tourism forecasting can be broadly divided into Qualitative and Quantitative methodologies. Regardless of the forecasting methodology used, this author has noticed that usefulness of the tourism demand forecasting model is actually based on the accuracy of the tourism demand forecasts which the technique generates, especially when it is measured in comparison with the actual inflow of the tourist arrivals, as defined by Hall, Timothy & Duval, (2012). In this regard, there are five patterns in use while working on a tourism time series:

  • Seasonality
  • Stationarity
  • Linear Trend
  • Non-linear Trend and
  • Stepped Series.
 

It has also been observed that while forecasting, the single variable approach has limitations as it lacks in explanatory variables. Also, because it is best suitable when making short- to medium-term forecasting, assert Erskine & Meyer, (2012). Another factor in this approach are the factors which are directly related to seasonality, trend and cycle, as they change slowly and can be best extrapolated in the short- to medium term forecasting, say Huimin, & Ryan, (2011).

The conventional tourism demand forecasting methodologies have been categorised as Univariate Time-series Approaches and Multivariate Demand Modelling Approaches. In this respect, say Lemelin, Dawson & Stewart (ed.), (2013), the latter can be implemented by using either a conventional four-step travel planning model or direct demand model. As far as overseas tourist demand forecasting is concerned, the direct demand modelling approach has been used more often because of its capability to identify the demand elasticity which is helpful in representing the causal relationship between the demand and the explanatory variables, assert Lemelin, Dawson & Stewart (ed.), (2013).

However, in many of the forecasting studies conducted, one of the factors comprises of the facilities which the tourists demand and the prices at which the tours are offered. Under such circumstances, this model has shown that the Univariate Approach has been able to demonstrate a better prediction accuracy. The universal application of the Univariate Time-series Models, according to Jung, Namkung & Yoon, (2012), in arriving at an accurate overseas tourist demand forecasting has established the superiority of this forecasting model in this field.

Univariate Time-series Model

This paper uses the univariate model and the multivariate direct demand model for forecasting overseas tourist arrival in Sydney. The author has used the ARIMA model for Univariate Time-series Analysis and this discussion is based on the dynamic Partial Adjustment Model (PAM), which is constructed from the Sydney Household Travel Survey (SHTS), as explained by Jung, Namkung & Yoon, (2012). For the direct demand modelling approach ARIMA model has been used. This author has found that using a number of time-series models, which have been developed for the purpose of forecasting, does not in fact specify a superior time-series model, as this author has noticed and as has been detailed by Evans, Stonehouse & Campbell, (2012), that the forecasting power solely depends on the nature of the data used and the context in which the study has been conducted.

The ARIMA model, which was introduced by Box and Jenkins in 1970, has been the most widely used time-series model because of its capability to process non-stationary as well as the seasonal data. Hence, instead going into the comparison of performance of the different univariate time-series models available, the focus of this paper is on the forecasting power between univariate modelling technique and multivariate modelling technique, assert Lemelin, Dawson & Stewart (ed.), (2013). This paper also looks at their implications for their practical use of tourist demand forecasting. Hence, the author has selected the ARIMA model for the univariate analysis in this paper solely because of its popularity in tourist demand forecasting studies as well as its flexibility while using a wide range of applications.

The ARIMA model, typically denoted as an ARIMA (p, q) model, consists of the Auto-Regressive (AR) term and the Moving Average (MA) term. The AR (p) model uses p lags of time for predicting the dependent variable y as is specified below in equation which is referred to as ARIMA (p, 1, q) Equation.

Data plotted in Graph-1 shows that the time series was a non-stationary one as there was certain trend component present in the flow of data. As per the available trend shown, the data was made into a stationary one by taking into consideration the first order difference (d = 1). The arrived at time series of this differenced data has been shown in Graph-2. Using the R-language for different values of p and q, the author arrived at different results of the ARIMA model, which were fitted for comparison with the requirements and then the best model was selected based on the minimum values prescribed in the selection criteria. For this purpose, this paper chose the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), the formula for which is given in the equation shown below.

Based on these findings, this author arrived at the best ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model. The best model was represented by the following equation.

The author also made use of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) technique and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error technique (MAPE) using the following formulae for arriving at the best ARIMA Model.

In making all these estimations, this author has used the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Technique (MLET). After this, use of data was made for forecasting the arrival of international tourists for the period 2006 to 2015 and the relevant values have been shown in the Table shown in the Appendix.

 

List of References

Buhalis, D. and Crotts, J. 2013. Global alliances in tourism and hospitality management. Routledge, Oxon.

Erskine, L. M. and Meyer, D. 2012. Influenced and influential: The role of tour operators and development organisations in tourism and poverty reduction in Ecuador. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(3), 339-357.

Evans, N., Stonehouse, G. and Campbell, D. 2012. Strategic management for travel and tourism. Taylor & Francis, New York.

Gilligan, C. and Hird, M. 2012. International marketing: strategy and management (Vol. 17). Routledge, Oxon.

Hall, C. M., Timothy, D. J. and Duval, D. T. 2012. Safety and security in tourism: relationships, management, and marketing. Routledge, Oxon.

Harris, L. C. 2012. Ripping off’ tourists: an empirical evaluation of tourists’ perceptions and service worker (mis) behavior. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(2), 1070–1093.

Huimin, G. and Ryan, C. 2011. Ethics and corporate social responsibility—An analysis of the views of Chinese hotel managers. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 30, 875–885.

Jung, H. S., Namkung, Y., & Yoon, H. H. 2012. The effects of employees’ business ethical value on person–organization fit and turnover intent in the foodservice industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 29(3), 538–546

Lemelin, H., Dawson, J., & Stewart, E. J. (Eds.). 2013. Last chance tourism: Adapting tourism opportunities in a changing world. Routledge, Oxon.

Download Sample

Get 100% money back after download, simply upload your unique content* of similar no. of pages or more. We verify your content and once successfully verified 100% value credited to your wallet within 7 days.

Upload Unique Document

Document Under Evaluation

Get Credits into Your Wallet

*The content must not be available online or in our existing Database to qualify as unique.

Cite This Work

To export a reference to this article please select a referencing stye below:

My Assignment Help. (2018). Operators And Development Organisations In Tourism . Retrieved from https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/operators-and-development-organisations-in-tourism.

"Operators And Development Organisations In Tourism ." My Assignment Help, 2018, https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/operators-and-development-organisations-in-tourism.

My Assignment Help (2018) Operators And Development Organisations In Tourism [Online]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/operators-and-development-organisations-in-tourism
[Accessed 13 July 2020].

My Assignment Help. 'Operators And Development Organisations In Tourism ' (My Assignment Help, 2018) <https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/operators-and-development-organisations-in-tourism> accessed 13 July 2020.

My Assignment Help. Operators And Development Organisations In Tourism [Internet]. My Assignment Help. 2018 [cited 13 July 2020]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/operators-and-development-organisations-in-tourism.


MyAssignmenthelp.com has become preferred online assignment help provider in Australia due to its efficiency and professionalism. Our highly skilled assignment writers work day in and day out to resolve students' doubts 'can I do my assignment perfectly' or 'will I able to write my assignment exactly in a manner that professors want' and provide them needed Assignment Help. Hence, students, who avail our services, get the chance to secure higher grades.

Latest Finance Samples

BE314 Financial Modelling

Download : 0 | Pages : 10
  • Course Code: BE314
  • University: University Of Essex
  • Country: United Kingdom

Answers: Introduction One of the major responsibilities of the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority of India is to supervise and coordinate the production of all the imported agricultural productions of India. Thus, the director of the company is interested to identify and analyse the issues that are related to the economy of rice. Nine major rice brands have been considered for the study. The brands of rice are stored in stores of New Delhi an...

Read More arrow

BAO5534 Business Finance

Download : 0 | Pages : 9
  • Course Code: BAO5534
  • University: Victoria University
  • Country: Australia

Answers: Introduction The managers of the entity are accountable for the conduct of the business operations in a manner that leads to the wealth maximization of the shareholders as well as the consideration of the interests of the other stakeholder groups within the business entity. Further to note, that business conduct within an organisation involves undertaking of varied strategic decisions in the areas of the operating, investing and fina...

Read More arrow Tags: Australia 34 Business finance Victoria University 

FIN 200 Business Finance And Group Assignment

Download : 0 | Pages : 9
  • Course Code: FIN 200
  • University: University Of Phoenix
  • Country: United States

Answer: 1.1 Depicting the monthly payment: Particulars Value Loan amount  $ 20,000,000 Tenure 120 Interest rate 0.67% Monthly payment  $ 242,655 1.2 Depicting how much is the first payment interest: Particulars Value Loan amount  $ 20,000,000 Interest rate 0.67% First payment is interest  $ ...

Read More arrow

HI5002: Finance For Business Analyse

Download : 0 | Pages : 7

Answer: Introduction  In this report, financial analysis of Lefroy exploration limited has been taken into consideration. There are several financial analysis tools that have been taken to analysis the performance of company such as ratio analysis, bottom up analysis and share price movement analysis. This financial analysis of Lefroy exploration limited will help in evaluating the business performance of company. It will help investors ...

Read More arrow

MAA250 Ethics And Financial Services Assessment

Download : 0 | Pages : 9
  • Course Code: MAA250
  • University: Deakin Business School
  • Country: Australia

Answer: Introduction: Directors and management contributes the man power into the bank and in return, they expect from the company monitory and non monetary items such as salary, incentive, bonus and sweat shares. Shareholders: Shareholders of CBA contribute the money and the funds in the organization for the operations and new projects of the company and in return, they expect dividends from the company. Dividends of shareholder depend on ...

Read More arrow Tags: Australia Murdoch Management University of New South Wales Humanities 
Next
watch

Save Time & improve Grade

Just share Requriment and get customize Solution.

question
We will use e-mail only for:

arrow Communication regarding your orders

arrow To send you invoices, and other billing info

arrow To provide you with information of offers and other benefits

1,360,695

Orders

4.9/5

Overall Rating

5,081

Experts

Our Amazing Features

delivery

On Time Delivery

Our writers make sure that all orders are submitted, prior to the deadline.

work

Plagiarism Free Work

Using reliable plagiarism detection software, Turnitin.com.We only provide customized 100 percent original papers.

time

24 X 7 Live Help

Feel free to contact our assignment writing services any time via phone, email or live chat.

subject

Services For All Subjects

Our writers can provide you professional writing assistance on any subject at any level.

price

Best Price Guarantee

Our best price guarantee ensures that the features we offer cannot be matched by any of the competitors.

Our Experts

Assignment writing guide
student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating 5/5

285 Order Completed

99% Response Time

Eugene Baranowski

MBA in Supply Chain

London, United Kingdom

Hire Me
Assignment writing guide
student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating 5/5

2830 Order Completed

97% Response Time

Leroy Bicknell

MBA in Marketing

London, United Kingdom

Hire Me
Assignment writing guide
student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating 5/5

1758 Order Completed

99% Response Time

William Martinez

MS in Biology

Washington, United States

Hire Me
Assignment writing guide
student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating 5/5

610 Order Completed

100% Response Time

Cheryl Zhao

PhD in Statistics

Singapore, Singapore

Hire Me

FREE Tools

plagiarism

Plagiarism Checker

Get all your documents checked for plagiarism or duplicacy with us.

essay

Essay Typer

Get different kinds of essays typed in minutes with clicks.

edit

GPA Calculator

Calculate your semester grades and cumulative GPa with our GPA Calculator.

referencing

Chemical Equation Balancer

Balance any chemical equation in minutes just by entering the formula.

calculator

Word Counter & Page Calculator

Calculate the number of words and number of pages of all your academic documents.

Refer Just 5 Friends to Earn More than $2000

Check your estimated earning as per your ability

1

1

1

Your Approx Earning

Live Review

Our Mission Client Satisfaction

The paper was well written, although there some changes needed to be made , overall im satisfied.

flag

User Id: 438520 - 13 Jul 2020

Australia

student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating

It was a perfect work. Nice analysis and organized. I also appreciate that they were very fast.

flag

User Id: 341163 - 13 Jul 2020

Australia

student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating

THIS WAS HANDS DOWN THE BEST PAPER I\'VE EVER RECEIVED FROM A STAFF/TUTOR ON THIS SITE. IT WAS VERY WELL WRITTEN - GRAMMAR ERRORS WERE VERY MINOR & NOT NOTICEABLE. I DIDN\'T HAVE TO EDIT MUCH TO SUBMIT THE WORK. I DEFINITELY WOULD LOVE FOR THE PERSON...

flag

User Id: 234292 - 12 Jul 2020

Australia

student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating

Always fast and efficient. They seem to care about delivering good work to the students. My powerpoint was nice and well put. I will continue to use your services.

flag

User Id: 451381 - 12 Jul 2020

Australia

student rating student rating student rating student rating student rating
callback request mobile
Have any Query?