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POLI1095 Evidence Policy And Practice

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  • Course Code: POLI1095
  • University: Royal Melbourne Institute Of Technology
  • Country: Australia

Question:

Background Information

Develop a strategy for doing a rapid evidence review to systematically analyse the research evidence that relates to a current policy issue. Rapid evidence reviews are more systematic and formal explorations for the evidence bases than what you might see in a general review of the literature.

A rapid evidence review is structured to respond to a set, predefined question. Questions can be impact related in that they are interested in 'what works' or non-impact related in that they are concerned with needs, experiences, perceptions of key participants. (This is the second stage of the assignment, but not the focus right now)

Rapid Evidence Review Question

Provide a justification as to why it is a good investment of time and resources to undertake an evidence review to answer the question you have posed. (Basically like a statement of problem)

Course Learning Outcomes

Scope and manage the production of policy evidence

  • I would like the question to be framed around the impact of COVID-19 on the Australian economy. (If you think of a better topic, we can discuss it)
  • I want the work in word document
  • Minimum of 10 References
  • If you need further clarification, let me know on time

 

 

Answer:

Impact of COVID-19 on the Australian economy

Australia is renowned as the fourteenth largest economy in the world that has the total Gross Domestic Product of about 1.69 trillion Australian dollars in 2019. It follows a mixed market economy which is one of the most developed in the world. The economy has already faced an economic loss due to the bush fire that took place in the beginning of 2020 and had been struggled to balance its economic growth As soon as it passed the phase, the corona virus broke in which has further affected the economic growth of Australia (Barua 2020). The aim of the paper is to study the impact of COVID-19 on the Australian economy.

There were about 5,800 active cases in the economy by the end of April 2020 with just 40 fatalities. This is not the case, the overall performance of the economies have slowed down which is further affecting the Australian economy. Government has announced for a lock down which is going to suppress the economy by significant proportions. Several industries were shut down and workers were laid off which has lowered the GDP growth rate. Economic activities has mostly stopped, the demand for necessary items has gone up as people panics that they would not be able to access them (Paloyo et al. 2020). As a result, in March the demand for consumer goods went up by significant proportion such that companies providing the necessary goods had the hire new employees to meet with the rising. Price level went up which again fell once the markets started stabilizing and the consumer were satisfied with their regular consumption products (Weinkove et al. 2020). This is creating recessionary pressures on the Australian economy which would be tested in this paper.

Review Questions

Review questions enables to understand the areas which will be effectively studied in the paper with respect to several evidences. The review questions are as given below:

  • Which sectors are mostly affected by the outbreak of COVID-19?
  • What is the impact of COVID-19 on the most effective sectors of Australia?
  • What is the overall impact of COVID-19 on the Australian economy with respect to real GDP and PMI?
 

Evidences to support the cause

Sectors and companies affected by COVID-19

Initially, the impact was seen on the sectors like agriculture, forestry, manufacturing who are dependent on China with respect to export and import. Gradually, COVID-19 spread across economies, the impact fell on other sectors as well like temporary work sectors, travel and tourism, manufacturing, energy, healthcare, e-commerce, retail, aviation and food (Sambell et al. 2020). However, government expenditure on health care activities widely increased and took several initiatives to decrease public gatherings.  Australia is expected to enter into the recessionary period for the very first time in three decades which puts Australia under threats as markets are unable to perform effectively.

According to Sheridan et al. (2020), the important companies who are affected by COVID-19 are Woolworths Group, Virgin Australia Airlines Pty. Ltd, Rio Tinto, Diamond Energy, BHP Group, Coca cola Amatil Group BP PLC, Quanta’s Airways Ltd, Wesfarmers Ltd. and several small firms. Manufacturing units were entirely closed in some companies as they had to stop the spread of COVID-19 (Karnon 2020). The mining operations has reduced due to the pandemic. Companies are now focusing its health conditions and trying to provide marks and small medical services that is needed in the times of economic crisis.

The impact of COVID-19 on the most effective sectors of Australia

 

Figure 1; Tend in growth of Manufacturing and Service sector in Australia

Source: (Fox, Trauer and McBryde 2020)

According the researchers, manufacturing and service are the two greatest sectors in Australia. However, since the beginning of 2020, service and manufacturing sector in Australia has effectively fallen, as evident from Figure 2. Fall in service activities has been more than manufacturing as public gatherings has decreased and so is the range of service activities associated with it. Australia will take a larger time to cope with its service operations and push the sector out of falling revenues (Ozili and Arun 2020). As per evidences, the global pandemic would wipe the 389 million dollars from the Australian sea food industry due to fall in output of the agricultural industries. Manufacturing activities reduced by a 17 points where manufacturing is a significant part of Australian economy that accounts for 11 percent of the total GDP.

Figure 2: Trend in the real GDP and PMI in Australia

Source: (Fox, Trauer and McBryde 2020)

Yet, the overall impact is severe and it is expected that he pandemic will actually lower the market activities. This is because the trade activities has fallen which is lowering the profits of these sectors (MacIntyre 2020). The inflation rates has gradually grouped showing the fact that the economy will be moving into recession sooner which will have a slower economic growth. This can be effectively understood by referring to the markets who have had negative impacts. The crisis is significantly felt on the mining sector with high domestic supply which is putting a downward pressure on the price level (McKibbin and Fernando 2020).

The overall impact of COVID-19 on the Australian economy with respect to real GDP and PMI 

Government has provided 110 million Australian dollars on forwards as international flight serves has decreased that has reduced the freight forwarding business. The fishing industry was granted with an amount of 3.7 million dollars as an assistance package. Business activities has significantly reduced due to reduction in export and import which has deepened a signal for the economic slowdown. This can be understood by the trend in real GDP and PMI in Australia from 2016 till the beginning of May. The PMI shows the trend in business operations which is showing a downward trend as it stands for Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Real GDP has sharply fallen in the first four months of 2020 which signifies that economy is gradually moving into a recession. Provided the current economic situation, markets will get time to cover. Moreover, the lockdown is not totally removed and businesses are partially regulated which poses a threat to Australia’s economy as it will be very difficult for Australia to recover from the current state of negative economic growth.

 

References

Barua, S., 2020. Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal https://doi org/10/ggq92n.

Fox, G.J., Trauer, J.M. and McBryde, E., 2020. Modelling the impact of COVID-19 upon intensive care services in New South Wales. The Medical Journal of Australia, 212(10), p.1.

Karnon, J., 2020. A simple decision analysis of a mandatory lockdown response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

MacIntyre, C.R., 2020. Global spread of COVID-19 and pandemic potential. Global Biosecurity, 1(3).

McKibbin, W.J. and Fernando, R., 2020. The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios.

Ozili, P.K. and Arun, T., 2020. Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. Available at SSRN 3562570.

Paloyo, A.R., Magno, C., Jandoc, K., Escresa, L., Epetia, M.C., Gochoco-Bautista, M.S. and de Dios, E.S., 2020. (DP 2020-02) A Philippine Social Protection and Economic Recovery Plan. UPSE Discussion Papers.

Sambell, R., Wallace, R., Lo, J., Costello, L. and Devine, A., 2020. Increasing Food Expenditure in Long Day-Care by an Extra $0.50 Per Child/Day Would Improve Core Food Group Provision. Nutrients, 12(4), p.968.

Sheridan, M.J., Koeberl, M., Hedges, C.E., Biros, E., Ruethers, T., Clarke, D., Buddhadasa, S., Kamath, S. and Lopata, A.L., 2020. Undeclared allergens in imported packaged food for retail in Australia. Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A, 37(2), pp.183-192.

Weinkove, R., McQuilten, Z., Adler, J., Agar, M., Blyth, E., Cheng, A., Conyers, R., Haeusler, G., Hardie, C., Jackson, C. and Lane, S., 2020. Managing haematology and oncology patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: interim consensus guidance. Med. J. Aust, 212(10), p.1.

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