Essay On Brexit And European Union: Possible Scenarios And Impacts On The UK Taxi Industry

At the end of the module the learner will be expected to be able to:

1.Outline research aims and objectives within given parameters.

2.Demonstrate an ability to critically review and evaluate management related literature.

3.Identify and utilise appropriate research methodologies.

4.Conduct appropriate analysis of the data collected in the light of the research objectives

5.Design a realistic and justified set of proposals based on the research.

6.Critically evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of their own work, and that of others.

7.Demonstrate an ability to work autonomously and manage the research process.

Overview of the European Union and the Maastricht Treaty

The European Union is an International organisation of 28 countries. There is a common economic, social and security governance in these countries with minimal trade barriers in them to improve the trade surplus of these countries. Though originally focused on the Western part of Europe, it went through a massive expansion in the resent times to also include Central European and East European Countries (Union and Pettinger, 2018). The EU was founded by the Maastricht Treaty in 1st November , 1993. The main objective of this treaty was to strive towards greater improvements in the integration of these countries economically and politically. To do this they introduced the Euro, a single currency which was to be used by most of the member nations (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2018). It is thought to be further advancing he goal of unified Economic and political unity along with providing common citizenship rights and also making sure to work together in areas of political greyness specially relating to terrorism, immigration , asylum and other such judicial affairs. The 2 countries comprises of  Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,

Slovenia, Spain,   Sweden, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom obviously has decided to move out of the EU in the historic vote on 23 June 2016 in which about 51% of the voting population voted that it wants out. The actual departure is set to happen on Friday, the 29th of March 2019 at 11 Pm Greenwich Mean Time. The United kingdom and the EU have thus far decided that it will provisionally dwell on the three issues of the divorce and that would be how much does the UK owe the EU, what would happen t the city’s of United Kingdom who are living in other part of the EU and the EU citizens who are now settles in the UK, and the third issues would be what would happen to the Northern Irish Wall. Positive talk has been taking place on how to smooth relations with the EU post the Brexit and there was an agreement reached on a 21 month transition period to see all the changes through smoothly. BREXIT which is the portmanteau of Britain and Exit is something that has actually impacted people from every walk of life in the United Kingdom (Hunt and Wheeler, 2018). Very famously the London stock market crashed and it had a huge impact on the value of the Pound Sterling in the days following the results of the referendum. It had political impacts with David Cameron resigning and giving over reigns to a new Prime Minister to sail the country through the turbulent waters. British nationals have thus not only had to have an impact economically and politically, but socially also looks at the prospect of a less open country, culturally and trade-wise. The Taxi industry would have been one to be hit the most. A lot of the taxi drivers are immigrants and with the current political situation would most probably not be feeling safe enough to make this country their home. Thus there could a dearth of good taxi drivers. Again, there might be less of an influx of people due to stricter regulations and therefore less business. Again, there are influences to be had on this in terms of the competition with the app based aggregators such as UBER. We shall look into this well in the next few sections.  There would be no way for us to

Types of Brexit Possible

TYPES OF BREXIT POSSIBLE

The biggest advantage of the European Union is that it provides access to the Euopean Single (Geoghegan, 2017) . What this means is that there are zero tariffs on exports to and imports from the rest of the European Union. Hence there are no quotas or taxes on trade. Also the European Union being a custom union means that the cost of trading is much lower than what it would have been otherwise, specially the administrative cost is pretty much as low as can be as with the EU one cannot put in VAT, rules of origin and physical checks. Another very important advantage is the free movement of resources, be they technological, intellectual physical or human (Chang, 2018). Goods and services being able to move freely provides a very big boost to the trade and economy of the region and helps in the efficient allocation of resources in all sectors or as close to it as possible. We shall further look into some possible scenarios depending on how the final agreement with the EU stands.

Hard and soft exits are terms generally coined by the media to distinguish the two kinds of exit that might be happening from the European union.

There is no strict definition of the term but generally is used to mean the closeness of the UK with the EU post Brexit. His would mean hat are the advantages that UK can retain of the European Union after leaving as of March 2019 (Reuters, 2018).

The hard exit is the extreme case and he one usually favoured by those who were ardent in favour of the Brexit. This kind of arrangement will in all probability see the United Kingdom give up rights to the Single European Market and also the full access fo the customs union along with the EU. This arrangement would be able to promise the country full control over its borders as well as its immigration policies, making new trade deals and applying laws within the country. This would mean that the UK return to the trading rules and regulations set up by the World Trade Organization for all its trading activities.  One of the pros to this approach is that it can foster economic improvement in Britain by making it such that there is global trading nation (Cleary, 2012). Leaders of business in Eu nations such as Germany have similar views in that it is better to have a hard exit and the Britain pave its own way than to be in the middle such that its stance is a political statement for every time or would have to go through severe discussion from time to time. Here they also would not have to contribute to the EU budget in any way making way for more cost cutting by them (Scutt, 2018).

Hard Exit

The cons of this would be that it could see the price of Britsh good and services subject to tariffs, adding around ten percent to the goods of exported things for example, cars. To add to this, certain sectors such as agriculture would also be losing protections against cheap imports from abroad putting the agricultural industry into an upheaval which would again lead to the rise in the prices of agricultural good and hence in the general standard of living (Arnorsson and Zoega, 2018).

Leaving the union would also mean that the checks that are done in the bureaucratic region for goods passing through the ports and airports would also increase. Thus there is heftier administrative costs to bear for trade. It would also find it difficult to have much impact in forging trade deals with major nations as it has already been announced that US and Australia would be prorating into making significant trade deals with European Region.

Soft exit on the other hand means that means that the relationship of the UK to the EU would be as close as possible to the existing relationship that is now there (BBC News, 2018). To a lot of the retainers this seems like an uncomfortable compromise. This would neckssarily mean that The United Kingdom would not be having a seat in the European Council and will obviously no longer be a member of the European Union. It would lose all the high officials related to these posts. However the very clear advantage would be that it would have unrestricted access to the European Single Market which is with whom the bulk of its trade happens. Good and services would continue to be traded on primarily a tariff free basis and there would be no quotas or such imposed on British goods. Financial firms could also retain their rights to sell services and operate the branches within the EU. Britain would continue to be a part of the custom union and thus goods would not need to be subjected to border checks which would save plenty in administrative costs. This sort of deals have happened before with nations such as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, which are not members of the EU but have access to the single market by being part of the  European Economic Area (Sims, 2018). To have access to this EEA, these countries must make contributions to the European budget and also accept that there would be freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and people. They are subject to EU law through the Luxembourg-based EFTA Court. So Britan has a very real example on what would be the kind of things they would have to follow in these situations.

Soft Exit

It is likely that a "soft Brexit" deal would insist on Britain observing the "four freedoms", meaning continued free access for European nationals to work and settle in the UK.

Another kind of agreement which was previously done by Switzerland was a bilateral agreement in which there would have been access to the single market for specific sectors as well as there were secured tariffs. However it was outside the customs union and had to make financial contribution towards the EU. Under this, it still allowed free movement of people under the Schengen agreement.

At this point it is very much understood how much these trade laws could govern the stability of the country as a whole (Midgley, 2018).  The economic conditions of a country are governed by trade and hence to get a better deal after weighing the pros and cons could seriously help with making sure the there are no disruptions as to when the country switched from a EU member country to a non member. Also decisions made in this respect would have far reaching consequences in all sectors. As in the modern world everything is interconnected and with interconnectivity raises the chances of all the dominoes tumbling down when one thing goes wrong. As seen with the Global Crisis of 2007, shocks do not take time to travel fro one sector to another and hence see of the most hard hitting sectors if this foes wrong might be the sectors which originally on the surface would have had low impact from the exiting of the United Kingdom from the EU.

This literature review will examine a few articles, with different point of views and the one that fit the purpose of this project will be chosen as an example for further examination. It is very likely that Brexit will affect the whole UK and also all the sectors, such as public services, food and drink industry, agriculture, economics and many others to some degree. The aim of the literature review is based on taxi services across the UK and how those services will be mostly affected in Plymouth.

Actual cities are oversaturated, on one hand most of the population is concentrated in large cities (in 2030 it is projected that more than 80% (UNFPA 2007) of the population will live in urban areas), on the other hand mobility needs of the modern population are growing continuously. While urban demand for trips is growing constantly, supply (capacity of city streets) is limited, and must be optimised, not increased (most of the times not possible inside the city). Well-planned, efficiently operated, and cost-effective transportation system management (TSM) strategies can improve mobility of existing systems for transportation users, especially in urban environments, where a good optimization of the infrastructure is needed (considering the high cost of building new facilities and the continuously increasing demand resulting from economic and population growth). Last year’s tendencies are shifting person trips from private vehicles to public vehicles, increasing the Public Transport share importantly. The most used Public Transports are the “Mass Transports” such as metro, tram or bus. This kind of transport usually has a centralised management which uses ITS technologies developed in the last decade for an optimal operation of the service. Unfortunately, inflexibility, long total travel time and insufficient service coverage of Mass Transport systems cause a lower usage of them in most metropolitan areas. Oppositely, the taxi-cab sector is a more convenient mode due to its speediness, door-to-door attribute, privacy, comfort, long-time operation and lack of parking fees.

Potential Consequences of Brexit on the UK Economy

The great inconvenience is the lack of central management; each taxi is operated by an independent driver, taking his own decisions continuously, with a weak intent of control by the policy issues of each city such as license control or distributing the working days of the taxi vehicles (normally the control is imposed on vehicles, not on drivers, generating double shift and increasing the use of taxis). An important percentage of the cars (e. g. 60% in Hong Kong (Yang et al. 2000) in the daily flow are taxis, most of them empty taxies. This situation is creating two problems, an internal problem to the taxi drivers (higher empty kilometers means lower benefits) and an external problem to the citizens (congestion and pollution). The first problem is being aggravated with the actual economic crisis, which is breaking the market equilibrium: demand is decreasing due to the lower incomes of the population and offer is increasing due to the increasing number of taxi drivers (not taxi licenses). Market equilibrium cannot be achieved in this concrete market because of the regulations (price is not established freely) and cannot go to the next equilibrium point due to the price policies imposed in each city. This is a vicious cycle, where empty hours are increasing, and taxi drivers need to work more time in order to have the same income, which means lower income per hour (Daniel (2006). In this situation, taxi drivers prefer to stop at taxi stands and wait for a client, without expending fuel in empty trips and consequently saturating the taxi stands. If taxi stops network is not well designed, this situation will create a decrease in the Level of Service of the passengers, decreasing the demand and congesting the streets near the taxi stops. The taxi sector has been traditionally a regulated market in terms of fares and entry control. The objective of this regulation is to correct the defects of the taxi sector, such as externalities (congestion and contamination), low level of service offered and anticompetitive behaviour of the market. A fundamental distinction in types of taxi regulations is between quantity regulation, quality regulation and market conduct regulation. Quality regulation embraces the standard of vehicles, driver and operator; this type of regulation is more a safety regulation than a competitiveness one. Market conduct regulation includes rules regarding pick up of passengers, or affiliation to a radio network. Quantity regulations include price regulation and entry restriction. From now and on, the term regulation will refer to quantity regulation. Restrictions on entry to the taxi market have been applied by many cities around the world, but actually many cities are deregulating their markets. The most common justifications used for controlling the entrance to the taxi market are the protection of the taxi drivers’ incomes and the externalities (pollution and congestion) caused by the circulating taxis, but when decisions are taken without a good justification or implementation plan, entry restrictions and fare regulations are distorting economically the taxi sector, leading to important welfare losses. As a result of entry control, the price of the licenses in markets where taxi licenses are tradeable are higher (Paris 125.000 €, Sydney 300.000 $, Melbourne 500.000$, New York 600.000$ [OECD 2007]), and they are rising up constantly due to the exploitation of their owners. Reforms have often been opposed to reduce the incomes of drivers, which are normally low, and restrictive conditions have been applied in this direction, but there is no evidence that taxi incomes are higher in markets with regulated entry conditions. Oppositely, license owners is the group who is being beneficiated by these measures, and not the drivers (Melbourne, as commented above has taxi licenses valuated in 500.000$, but driver incomes are estimated at 8 – 14$ per hour [OECD 2007]). Deregulation has most of the times positive impacts, resulting in lower waiting times, increased consumer satisfaction and price falling (OECD 2007). Market liberalization is an interesting challenge for many cities, but in cities where strong supply restrictions have been applied, there will be a strong opposition to reform proposals from the license-owners. Arguments support that license-owners must be compensated in that case: one approach (first used in Ireland) is to give the additional licenses to each license-owner, ensuring that the new monopoly will remain in their hands; alternatively, the new license can be given to taxi drivers without taxi license (OECD 2007). In Melbourne, a 12-year program is adding to the stock of licenses a number of licenses equal to the yearly demand growth. Other concepts are important in relation to deregulation, most of the times quantity deregulation means quality regulation, ensuring safety and minimum service standards.

The situation in the UK is mixed. On the one hand, the UK has avoided the worst excesses of taxi market regulation. There is no British equivalent of Evgeny Freidman, the ‘Taxi King’ of New York City. Taxi licensing practices were highly restrictive until 1985, when local authorities could arbitrarily refuse the issuance of licenses. Indeed, from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, the number of licenses remained almost flat, rising from just under to just over 30,000 (Department for Transport 2013). Then, however, the 1985 Transport Act introduced a number of formal hurdles that local authorities would have to clear if they wanted to limit license numbers. This did not make restrictive licensing practices impossible, but the number of taxis began to increase again, reaching 50,000 in the early 1990s, and 60,000 a decade later. In recent years, numbers have hovered around 78,000 (ibid). So unlike in Ireland before 2000, or in several large US cities to this day, where taxi license numbers have been effectively frozen for decades, license numbers in the UK have been rising steadily.

However, throughout this period, the UK has also experienced substantial population growth, income growth, and increases in the relative price of private motoring, factors which must have led to an increase in (latent) demand for taxi trips. National aggregates also hide substantial variation between local authorities. Most authorities do not set an upper limit for license numbers, however, the ones that do cover most of the major population centres.

Local authorities do not just differ in a snapshot perspective, but also show different policy trends, which enables us to get some idea of the effects of different policies. Aquilina (2011) compares short-term trends in English taxi markets that have abolished quantity controls to short-term trends in markets that have retained them. He finds that while the former have seen taxi numbers increase by 78% over a few years, the latter have only seen a 5% increase. Waiting times in markets that have derestricted have fallen by 60%, compared to only 12% in markets that have not derestricted. The research is not of a particularly high quality: it only covers a small number of local authorities, and it is not clear whether the markets which have not derestricted represent a suitable control group. Markets that have derestricted, and markets that have not, may have differed in other ways, so we cannot automatically attribute differences between them to derestriction. But it is compatible with most of the international evidence on deregulation.

What is important to note in the UK context, though, is that the absence of an official cap on taxi numbers must not be confused with open entry into the market. In London in particular, the stringent Knowledge test that drivers have to pass, combined with the high cost of a vehicle that fulfils the regulatory requirements, is just as effective an entry control as an explicit limit (Law Commission 2014:144 footnote 3). The preparatory course for the Knowledge test for central London takes up to four years, i.e. longer than most university degrees. In order to pass, prospective drivers must memorise more than 300 different routes (ibid p. 54).

There are also more subtle forms of rationing licenses. The application process itself is time-consuming, and when the volume of applications exceeds administrative capacities, a backlog builds up (Law Commission 2014 p. 144 footnote 3). Waiting lists then act like entry controls. So, it would be wrong to describe the London taxi market as ‘derestricted’, even if there is no quantitative upper limit on licenses. This must be borne in mind in order to make sense of the incumbents’ resistance to the new market entrants. (Institute of Economic Affairs, 2018). Basically, taxi has been quite an old job and has always been used, especially black cabs which are known to best describe London, everyone knows about the black cars, which used to have a driver wearing a black uniform and a cap. Those old cars are still in use, but newer models have been manufactured. Most black cab drivers in Plymouth use different models such as Peugeot, Mercedes and Ford, which actually does not represent the tradition anymore, but they are still called black cabs. A few months ago for example, the City Council of Plymouth, decided to enforce a new law for black cab drivers, which is asking every driver to have their cars painted in white and some green lines which will represent the logo of Council; most drivers were frustrated about the law and there has been a meeting back in January or February and about 90% stated that they do not wish to do that to their cars, because it will cost a lot of money.

In January 2013, David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, held a speech wherein he pledged to hold an in-out referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU before the end of 2017 (CEP 2014). UK citizens are increasingly discontent with the EU, its agenda of increasing integration and the large inflow of EU migrants to the UK labour market (Glencross 2015). Further, the Conservative party is split in two on whether to remain or leave the EU (Whyte 2015). The referendum commitment is a political move by the Conservative government to appease its base, as well as the constituency. Hence, Cameron has promised to renegotiate the terms of UK membership in the EU, in the hope that UK citizens will choose to stay in the Union on the back of more favourable membership terms. The referendum then creates pressure for reform in the EU, as the other member states face a realistic risk that the UK withdraws its membership. The EU has recently fought tooth and nail to keep Greece in the eurozone, and it would make sense that it would go even further to keep the third largest economy in the EU.

When the UK government set out to join the EC, it was presented as a trading arrangement, rather than a first step towards an eventual political and economic union. As European integration moved forward, and UK national sovereignty was continually conceded, the public discontent with the EC grew. This has come to show in international media where the UK is the only member state to openly discuss leaving the Union, as well as in the several opt-out rights of EU policies and measures. Nevertheless, the UK has been one of the strongest powers in moving the European project, and notably the single market, forward. In this chapter, I will portray the development of the British relationship with the European Union and shed some light upon the background for the public discontent with the Union.

The UK would be the first member state to exit the EU, and accordingly, there is no precedence for establishing relationships with former member states. Though Algeria left upon its independence from France in 1962 and Greenland voted to leave the EEC in 1985. Greenland is still subject to EU treaties, as it is a part of the Danish Realm and thus took the opportunity to join the Overseas Countries and Territories Association (OCTA). Of course, OCTA will not be relevant as an exit model for the UK, rather it is a further complication, as countries part of the Commonwealth will likely lose their OCTA status when the UK exits the EU. All of this information is quite old and probably out dated as the discussion started in 2015 and 2016, when most residents from the UK voted to leave the EU, the Prime Minister David Cameron refused to continue his job as he was not happy about the results. After he resigned, the government chose Theresa May as the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The UK will leave the EU in March 2019, until then nothing will change, but most people are scared and are planning ahead as they do not fully understand the changes that will occur once the UK will no longer be part of the EU. On 29 March 2017, the government triggered Article 50, which began the formal process for the UK to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. In December 2017, the UK government reached an agreement with the European Commission to secure the status of UK nationals living in other member states and EU citizens living in the UK after we exit the EU. The UK remains a full member until we exit the EU, and all rights and obligations of membership remain in place until then. (The Economist, 2016)

• UK nationals living in the EU

There will be no change to the rights and status of UK nationals living in the EU while the UK remains in the EU.

• EU nationals living in the UK

There will be no change to the rights and status of EU nationals living in the UK while the UK remains in the EU (GOV,2018).

The UK government has reached an agreement with the European Union on citizens’ rights in negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. This will provide certainty about the future to millions of EU citizens and their families in the UK. Most importantly, it will allow people to stay here after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019, and to continue to access public funds and services. The UK government has agreed that EU citizens and their families arriving during the implementation period, from 30 March 2019 to 31 December 2020, will be able to stay on the same terms but will need to register if they choose to stay for longer than 3 months (GOV,2018).

Citizens will be able to apply for settled status if they are a citizen, or the family member of a citizen, of an EU country. They have agreed with the EU that the conditions for EU citizens and their family members to get settled status in the UK will be the same as, or more generous than, those set out in the existing Free Movement Directive. In most cases this means anyone willing to apply will need 5 years of continuous residence in the UK. If people meet the criteria and submit a valid application they will be granted status, unless: they were not resident in the UK by 31 December 2020, they are refused on the grounds of their serious criminal convictions or for security reasons. The withdrawal agreement will become a part of UK law and so the Home Office will not be able to refuse an application for any reason not covered by the agreement. (GOV,2018).

(Musaddique, 2018) “Industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders estimated last month that a no-deal Brexit would cost the motor industry an additional £4.5bn in tariffs. It’s repeatedly warned that a failure to establish proper trade deals after Brexit could damage the industry “beyond repair”. Ford warned in November that a no-deal Brexit would spell “disaster” for the UK car industry and could cost it as much as $1bn in additional tariffs (Ross and Meakin, 2017). Toyota said in September that it may be forced to shift some UK production work elsewhere, while Aston Martin’s chief executive called for Theresa May to provide clarity by the first quarter of 2018.”

In November the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in a decade (Musaddique, 2017). The last time that happened, the iPhone was less than a week old and Gordon Brown was Prime Minister. With wage growth set to remain stagnant, the Bank’s Governor Mark Carney admitted that the economy may be heading for a bumpy few years, and that two further interest rate rises would likely follow before the end of 2020. Carney also said that the Brexit vote had already slowed the UK economy and he pointed out that the country is now among the worst performing in the G7, having been the best performing prior to last year’s referendum (Amadeo, 2018).

Also, in November, the Autumn Budget saw Chancellor Philip Hammond announce £25bn in extra spending to prop up the economy. Data in the Budget showed families are suffering the biggest financial squeeze since the 1950s. The Office for Budget Responsibility said that it now sees the economy growing by just 1.5 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent next, down from previous estimates of 2 per cent and 1.6 per cent. Business investment was also subdued in 2017. The Bank of England in November said that it expects the level of business investment to be around 25 per cent lower by 2019 relative to its pre-referendum forecasts, damaging our future productivity growth. The UK economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of the year, official data showed (Giles, 2018).

Based on the information found on the internet, above there are some economic facts and figures which shows how the economy has changed since the referendum, also, economists are worried about more negative impacts that will occur until the Brexit and after. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Daiwa, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Nomura have all already announced that they will be relocating some operations and staff from Britain to the EU because of Brexit. The EU dealt a major blow to the UK in November after it agreed to move the European Banking Authority to Paris, after a dozen EU member states lobbied to host the regulator (Hobolt, 2016). London has always been known as the most powerful city, because all the banks are there, because all the money are there and all the powerful people, but now, big firms are getting worried and they are trying to move their operations to the EU as they do not know what will happen after the UK leaves the EU, although everyone is getting worried as they know deep down that there will be lots of negative impacts, especially there where are lots of employees and money (Portes and Forte, 2018).

Taking a pyramid as an example, putting the richest people on top, the modest people in the middle and the poorest at the bottom, it is clear that Brexit is a political game, people get to know what those on top wants everyone to know, but those on top, they know everything because they have everything and nowadays, sadly, money is the key to everything. Not just the economy will be affected, but also technology, car industry, constructions and manufacturing, food and drinks, pharmaceuticals, architecture and design and banking (Witte, 2018). All these sectors will be affected in a negative way, although they have been already affected since the referendum, which makes everyone worry more. For example, if the car industry will be affected, many industries will move their operations abroad or the prices could be doubled, which affects the business and the customers (Driffield and Karoglou, 2016). Like the car industry, the global nature of the construction and manufacturing sector means that it could stands to lose a lot – especially if Brexit restricts the free movement of labour. Seven of the construction industry’s largest trade bodies warned in November that the sector faces a Brexit “cliff edge” if the Government does not provide more details on its plans to implement a two-year grace period for EU citizens looking to apply for settled status after the split (Redwood, 2018).

There has been an increase in the number of EU construction workers leaving the UK for jobs on the continent, according to the Association for Consultancy and Engineering. Findings by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors in a report published in March showed that almost 200,000 construction jobs could be slashed if Britain loses access to the European single market, jeopardising billions of pounds worth of infrastructure projects (Ruddick, 2018).

Another huge impact could be the international students, whom not only pay more tuition fees that the other students, but whom are also taxi driver’s “best customers” on weekends. If the free movement will be restricted, Plymouth University will lose students and money, the taxi companies will lose customers and money, the city centre will lose customers and money and even the banks will lose customers and money. Even though, the Brexit is a future process and there are not stated or changed regulations, everyone is worried and planning ahead. As mentioned above, some taxi drivers even said that after Brexit, they might even leave the country because they do not know what will happen.

BREXIT on the other hand had positive impact too. Firstly, it will help in decreasing overcrowding which UK complains that it affects its economy on a large scale. Moreover, UK skilled workers are working in other countries BREXIT will help to bring talent back to UK. When overcrowding will decrease then HR can easily find the right person for the right job. This will help in overcoming unemployment of people born in UK (The Conversation, 2017).

Secondly, it will solve the multi-currency problems i.e. it will solve the problems in converting euros to pounds or pounds to euros as only single currency would be available. This will lead people out of confusion that either people are hired based on euros or pounds. This will help UK enjoy independent monetary policies (Lilico, 2016).

Thirdly, it will help UK government in lowering taxes on every item as government will not have to pay extra at least 7 billion pounds for the membership. New businesses will grow, and government will build new industries and plants in order to improve their economy. This all will lead to make every item cheap and households in UK would be getting richer (The Week UK, 2016).

At the time of writing the pound is worth €1.12, and $1.22. This time last year it was around $1.54 and €1.34. So, things are looking good for those earning in other currencies. When people come to visit the UK, they then spend their hard-earned dollars/euro/rupees/yen on food, attractions, transport and hotels., which is good for the economy as their money will stay in the UK even after they leave. While obviously Brexit is going to make it a lot harder for people from EU member states to move here, the timing could not be better for people coming from non-EU countries (Molle, 2010). In particular, it could be good for professionals immigrating from the US, Singapore and Australia, for example, who may be bringing their savings over in dollars. Brexit is also an advantage for those who live in the UK, but work for a foreign-based company and get their wages in dollars or euros. With Brexit on the way, fishing leaders are hoping that the Britain will regain control of the industry and become a top seafood exporter (Green, 2018). Addressing the House of Lords last month, seafood bosses predicted that the UK would return to being a world leader in sustainable seafood. Back in July the Russo-British Chamber of Commerce said that Brexit would ‘open up new prospects and new opportunities’ for the UK and Russia to build up a relationship. As part of the EU, UK abide by sanctions placed on Russia over the invasion of Crimea.

Basically, UK leaving the EU could have both negative and positive impacts on the country itself and also on businesses, employees, customers, partners, on those who work, on those who study and also on those unemployed (Grady, 2018). They will have to create their own rules and regulations, they will have to find countries to trade with, also they will have to have some restrictions because after Brexit, the country might go through a though period of time which could lead to a recession, the benefits will be definitely lowered and those who are now unemployed, will probably be asked to get a job, even a part time job, nothing is for sure yet, but there so many things that will definitely change after March 2019 (BBC News, 2018). All the information, facts or just ‘stories’ are there to make the reader understand what could happen, nothing is 100% accurate, because UK is still an EU member until 2019 or 2020, based to some news, which suggests that the process will be extended until 2020 (Janse, 2016).

At the end of March 2017:

• the total number of licensed taxi and private hire vehicles in England increased by 16% to 281,000
• 73% of all licensed vehicles in England were private hire vehicles
• 39% of the total number of licensed taxis and private hire vehicles in England were in London
• 58% of licensed taxis in England were wheelchair accessible
• there were 356,300 taxi or private hire vehicle driver licences in England (GOV, 2017).

Taxis are private vehicles used for public transport services providing door to door personal transport. Taxi services can be divided into three broad categories: rank market, hail market and prebooked market. Rank places are designated places where taxi can wait for passengers and vice versa. Taxis and customers are forming queues regulated by a FIFO system. Disadvantages are that due to the FIFO policy established price has no effects on customer choice, and that customers must walk until the nearest taxi stop. In the hail market clients hail a cruising taxi on the street. There is uncertainty about the waiting time and the quality/fare of the service customers will find. Advantage here is that customer must not walk until the taxi stop. In this case a monopolistic market is possible. In the pre-booked market consumers telephone a dispatching centre asking for an immediate taxi service or for a later taxi service. Only in this kind of market consumers can choose between different service providers or companies. At the same time, companies can fidelise clients with a good door to door service. The market here is a competitive market where larger companies can offer smaller waiting times.

The Process Required To Become A Taxi Driver In Plymouth

To become a taxi driver in Plymouth, it’s mandatory to pass two tests, the knowledge one which is a written test and the candidate has to learn all the venues, routes and some questions related to customer service, and a driving test which involves the candidate driving a car from point A to point B for example, it is more like a normal driving test, but this test also shows if the candidate knows the city and the traffic regulations in the UK, if the candidate is a foreign participant . To get a private hire licence, the candidate must be 25 years old because of the insurance premium being too expensive for those under 25, furthermore the driver must have held his/her driving licence for at least a year before joining any taxi companies in Plymouth. To become a taxi driver, there is also a medical examination that will either allow or not allow the candidate to work as a taxi driver. Once qualified the candidate will be a self-employed driver, sub-contracting to TAXIFIRST. The taxi driver can work any hours he or she wants.

The key benefit of using TAXIFIRST is all bookings are processed through the TAXIFIRST dispatch system allocating the nearest car to their customers. This enables them in getting to their customers chosen pick-up point on time. They strive to provide taxis within 10 minutes however the taxi may take longer during peak periods. They are the leading Taxi Company in Plymouth. Their success is purely down to the commitment to their industry on all levels which leads to the most important people, their customer. TAXIFIRST consistently delivers a reliable safe service, with drivers and staff that care. All drivers are in uniform, CRB checked and trained on “How to be a Professional Taxi Driver”.

They are extremely proud of their heritage and the organic growth in their business which has made them the largest Taxi company in Plymouth by more than double. The company has started to recruit drivers from Romania and Bulgaria since 2010, and the process used to be different to what it is now. A manager used to be sent to Bucharest, the capital of Romania, where he would stay for a period of time, advertising about TAXIFIRST. People who were interested, used to fill in a form and kind of register for an interview, then the manager would pay for their flight ticket from Romania to the UK. In order to be successful and sent to the UK, the candidates had to pass a theory test in Romania and a driving test in the UK. This was the process a few years ago, nowadays drivers who are already here and working, are telling their friends or family members about it, having them for a few months here, helping them to pass both tests here in Plymouth, instead of learning in Romania, moreover they can get used to the city, learn quicker and also get used to driving on the left hand side.

In particular, taxi drivers are worried about their jobs and also about their status in the United Kingdom. Most EU citizens are worried about their jobs being lost, prices going up and everything being overpriced, which will result in most people deciding to move to other countries, where the life would be cheaper. For example, Brexit has an negative impact on food manufacturing industry, which is a worry for both taxi drivers and also the rest of the people living in the UK.

The food and drink industry encompass a complex value chain from farmers, through manufacturing, to retailers and caters, and finally the customers. Mostly, food and drink manufacturers source their majority raw materials from domestic agricultural sector and only 21% of agricultural products are imported. According to EEF 9% of all food and drink manufactured products are exported and around 60% of them reach consumers via channels as retails and wholesales or caters. (Sector Bulletin: Food & Drink, 2017, p.,5). According to government figures almost 51% of the food consumed is imported, from which 30% comes from EU. (GOV, 2017).

Basically, most EU citizens who do not possess the British Citizenship are scared because of the Brexit; they do not know that anyone who lives in the UK, has a job, is paying taxes and is doing the right things, are safe. Safe means that they will not be deported or asked to leave the country, after March 2019. There are certain documents that can prove someone’s status in the UK, such as the ‘permanent residency certificate’ which is a document certifying that someone has lived and worked or studied in the UK in the last 5 years and is willing to apply for British Citizenship. Not everybody has that certificate, which means anyway that after the Brexit will begin, everyone in the UK except the British residents, will have to apply for a different type of document certifying their rights to live, work and remain in the UK after Brexit. TAXIFIRST drivers and their families will not have to leave the country because they are working, paying their taxes and other expenditures; in other words, they will have to prove that they can live and have a decent life without applying for benefits, apart from the Child Benefit, which is a benefit for every child in the UK under the age of 18 and in full time education (Turner, 2018). This forms a barrier for people from low income families from being able to retain the jobs they have been doing all their lives.

Another new way of taxi drivers in Plymouth is Uber. Though traditionally a threat to the nuance of a taxi driver, Uber drivers face a lot of discrimination specially in regards to how they are assumed to be. There is a general nuance that Uber drivers are dirty immigrants who often abuse their customers. Uber has already lost its license in London and that would definitely be so as to give the more traditional taxi drivers a better chance. This affects the Uber drivers negatively as they are often low skilled and would struggle to find employment elsewhere (Wight, 2018). The sentiment is very anti-immigrant and is surely a product of the anti-outsider sentiment that has been prevalent in the UK since the Brexit.

The methodologies used in this project are questionnaires and secondary research. This would mean that after finding out what had been the responses of each of the individuals considerable effort was made so as to make sure that one might be able to find out the possible reason of such responses. Taking qualitative answers was not within the scope of this survey so it was very important that one try and find what might have actually happened through research. The questionnaires have been created  keeping in mind to find out the general condition of the drivers in terms of waiting time and such as well as how they anticipate the characteristics of their job to change post Brexit and given to the drivers around Plymouth and they have answered the questions, which helped the researcher understand their point of view, their worries and their future plans.  Secondary research is the data that is already published on the internet or somewhere else and can be accessed by anyone, this type of data is easy to find and use but it can be inconvenient because people might use the same information as one another. The questionnaires have been made on a Word document and handed out to drivers from TaxiFirst and Black Cab; the drivers have been numbered as they did not wish to use their names in case the questionnaires would be published somewhere, even though some of them did not have a problem with that, because it has been clearly explained that the information used will only be shared with the researcher and the University of Plymouth, so the surveys or the answers will not be publicly revealed.

In the data collected in the primary survey, we have made sure to remove as much bias as possible. The data was collected anonymously with full guarantee to the responder that no information such that he might be identified will be shared with anyone whatsoever. It is very much possible that the respondents still had some qualms about this but we have tried our best to provide yes or no questions such that there might not be any scope for subjective answers.

Below we analyse the responses given by these drivers in the forms of bar charts and pie charts. These  responses have been presented base don the frequency of response as to keep the responder anonymous, names had not been recorded anyway and no qualitative data was recorded that it would benefit from individual analysis.

Firstly the below graph shows the frequency with which the cab drivers are actually being tipped presently. We see that the tipping percentage is very low, and bound to get lower with the introduction of the Brexit rules which would very likely see that  the households have an increased expenditure due to prices of goods increasing. The disposable income of the common household is bound to get lower. Cab prices might also go up to keep in line with the increased petrol and diesel prices due to there being a change in the policies governing the import of these fuels in the UK. If this happens there will in all probability be a decrease in the demands of cabs and even if cabs are taken people would be very less likely to tip the driver over and above the already increased fare.

Shows the response to if these cab drivers thought that there would be negative impact in their jobs due to the Brexit. As can be seen an overwhelming amount of them have said yes and the reasons for these are some of the same mentioned before. Even cars and other auto parts which would have been coming tariff free from other parts of the EU would not be forced t be paid some kind of taxes thus increasing their price. Another would be that with tourists from other European countries now requiring more administrative drudgery to visit the UK would be less likely to visit , hence there would be a downturn in the number of fares these cabs have been taking. This on top of the overall decreased dispensable income makes it a very bad situation for these taxi drivers.

Here shows what these cab drivers think they might be doing post the BREXIT. An unfortunate number of them think they would have to end up changing jobs due to the pressure of the cost that would become associated with becoming a cab driver.  Though very few thought they would have to leave the country about 56 % of them thought they would have t change the job to make their daily needs met. It would be very hard to get jobs with things such as TAXIFIRST due to issues mentioned above.

Except the graphs shown here data was also collected on the average wait times to get another customer and such. It showed that most cab drivers had to wait over 15 mins to get their next fares, something that would only ever increase as the customer dries up.  What the survey paints is not a happy picture. The drivers  who have been doing this job for a long time now feel threatened about the stars quo due to the complications that might be brought about by the Brexit. More discussion on this is taken u in the next section.

After handing out the surveys, 53 drivers wished to take part and answered the 7 questions. Every driver had a different opinion and of course each one chose whatever suited him. On average all of them answered the same to some questions, which made it clear that a taxi driver waits approximately 15 minutes or more to get a fare, the average tips they get is maximum 50 pence as it is very rare when they get more and this is probably because of the wages customers get, sometimes they can get up to £10 when the journey is longer or when they get somewhere on time, there are many reasons why a customers might give a taxi driver such a generous tip. On the other hand, when the drivers were asked if they are worried that the UK leaving the EU might have a negative impact on their job, 9 out of 10 answered “yes” because they really are, the negative parts could be high prices for petrol, insurance, car maintenance, loss of jobs and they are even worried that after the Brexit, they could be asked to leave the country, which is not a good thing as most of them have been living here in Plymouth for more than 5 years, they have their families and children here, some of them even bought houses or flats here and overall it is unlikely that any taxi drivers will be deported or asked to go back to their countries, as the UK government and the EU are trying to make it clear that EU citizens will have the right to live and work in the UK after the Brexit and also that British citizens are allowed to work and live in EU countries without any restrictions after the Brexit. Also things like petrol prices being at the highest they have been in three years worries these drivers as to whether it would be cost effective to continue in this job (ABC Money, 2018).

For the effects of the BREXIT as a whole as can be imagined that none of these effects would be immediate. Ongoing economic turbulence will be having a influence of the cost of buying and keeping a car. This is specially true in relation to fuel prices which are anyway very dynamic and also very much dependant on political relations. In a couple of years once the BREXIT is final , we could be looking into a drastic change in the motor industry. One of these ways would be that the price of a car would increase and thus it would not be as affordable to but a new car or even a cheap one. Though a very large number of factors are going to go into what would actually be the cost of this, what makes matters much simpler to calculate is that the auto industry would be looking to be very heavily hit with the BREXIT with that it sources resources from all over the region. Also foreign providers might very well choose to miss Britain because it would need to increase prices to make sure to make the payments for the present bureaucracy that would come from UK again being its own nations. Taxi drivers might be apprehensive to buy cabs that is why and thus stick to this job long term. Another very important point would be that Britain has a right hand drive and European manufacturers would have to make cars specifically for this country which if unsold, cannot be shipped off to other parts of the EU. Thus they might stick to smaller number of choices for the EU market. Brexit however could pave the way of increasing grey imports from other countries which also have the right hand rule such as Japan which are huge manufacturers of automobiles anyway. It remains to be seen such opening up to the world actually helps Britain in some way. As ready has been mentioned one of the biggest detriments to these drivers would be that the fuel prices are expected to rise once the Brexit kicks in. Fuel prices are extremely volatile and depend heavily on the global factors but also on how the Pound Sterling fluctuates in the world economy. A lot of it is also political with the kind of trade agreements the government can have with oil providing nations also having a huge impact. But the worst case scenario would be that the price of these crude oils keep rising and also the pound keep getting devalued. Though this sounds like a nightmare, thoughts of such high risk uncertainties have pushed the drivers to possibly consider, other more stable industries.  The worst case scenario situation presented is that a family of two cars would have an increased spending of around 500 pounds if it fills up the cars every fortnight. This is hardship for a lot of people who are probably already looking at a decrease in their disposable income anyway. As for the can drivers who have to make multiple trips the cost would be very much higher.

The there comes the thing about car insurance (Wiseman, 2018). Though there have been no indicators that car insurance would be increasing or decreasing there is a chance that the men will have to pay more insurance. This is because there was previously a European law which stated that insurance premiums cannot be different base on just gender. Previously in the UK women were considered less dangerous while men were considered more dangerous with a car. But with the EU law it had evened out. Now once Britain is again out of the UK this law is to be reintroduced and would be problem for the taxi drivers majority of whom are male. This would be abetter hiccup if the taxi driver wants to own his own car to be sued as a taxi. With that there is also the cost of the price of the parts of a car that are to be replaced from time to time such as the tire. The price of these are very likely to change along with the change in the price of the imports. One of the main concerns of this industry is that the components of the supply chain would increase in price and they would be distributed to the customers as well. This makes another steep cost increase in the business of the taxis after the BREXIT.

Conclusion

The European Union and the UK are taking the divorce talks very seriously and we often see articles in the newspapers regarding the progress of these talks .  However it must be kept in mind that no matter what kind of an exit that ends up happening from the EU, there are real common people who will be directly impacted form this. The taxi drivers taken into consideration here would face real problems regarding the cost side of their businesses if appropriate trade laws are not made. As was seen through the later portions of the project, these people are not very happy and are hopeless regarding what the BREXIT might actually bring for them, many of them fearing the worst. One of the largest concerns would be that with the level of immigration that would now be allowed in the UK. While the government has already had greater control over migrants from the rest of the world, Europeans have benefitted from looser restrictions in the EU’s freedom of movement("What does Brexit mean for the British taxi industry? - Freeway Insurance", 2018).  With this freedom removed, migration can be controlled better to differentiate the honest contributors from non-workers. It would probably be wrong to think of it as a closed gate instead of having some guards at the door. In the best case scenario these restrictions would help weed out the ones who are not here to contribute positively to the work thus protecting the industry as a whole specially since the taxi industry is one the most diverse industries. To be taken into consideration also is the fact that there is a huge racial diversity in these taxi driver populations and care should be taken not to negatively affect anyone based on their race or citizenship status, that is to safe guard them against institutional racism and xenophobia (Alfano, Dustmann and Frattini, 2016). The auto industry and the taxi industry along with it is poised to undergo a huge change. All that remains to be seen is that if it is for the better or for worse.

Data was collected through a questionnaire method for the survey. However the pitfall of this was one was not able to better understand the reason for the responses given by the correspondents. Something like race, immigration status etc. which might further help understand the reason for any of these responses was outside the scope of this survey. Also this being a survey there was no change to forecast what might actually be happening in the future, as it might have been with a more data oriented statistical study. However, the primary responses provide a unparalleled look into the reality of what is happening without giving the data a chance to be tampered with or for any of its characteristics to be removed which might have been a problem when working with secondary data.

Let us take a closer look into what could be the pros of using a survey method to research a topic :

1. It lets the surveyor collect quantitative feedback ("The Pros and Cons of Surveys - qSample Blog", 2018). Often this is the only way to collect the all important qualitative feedback from the market.  By this it is meant a questionnaire. Though use of open ended questions it might be possible to better understand what it is that the issue is. Other techniques can be used such as the A/B testing method in which the respondents would have to chose between two or more options. However the data collected by this method would only be qualified as quantitative data and not qualitative as we fail to see why a certain choice has been made as there is no provision to include this. This is what has been done in this project. To better this it might be useful to look into what could possibly be the reasoning behind each of the drivers responses.  Without understanding why a person has made the choice they have one is often left guessing as to what the motivating factor could be and that provides some unsoundness of analysis.
2. This is also an excellent way to get how emotionally involved each of your test subjects are with the matter. Someone who is a taxi driver by force is bound to be more emotional regarding how a huge charge such as Brexit might affect the sector whereas someone who is probably doing this for someone else part time might not care as much. Then it might make sense to weigh their responses in such a way that people who have more impact in something are higher weighted.
3. Though sometimes it might do to study patterns of publicly available data, at the end of the statistics is a way of analysing things in an aggregation level. However such tests require formidable resources and technology which might not be readily available. It might also require very complex and advanced statistical knowledge along with knowledge of newer age technologies such as machine learning which might not be possible for everyone. A survey is a much simpler, clearer way if looking at the results specially when the data points are not vast.
4. Another is the cost associated with other methods. Surveys though require some time and ground work effort from the surveyor, is not very costly otherwise as it just involves asking people some questions or handing out certain questionnaires. This might not be the case with other methods where serious computing power might be necessary and that kind of computing power does not come cheap. So this was chosen as the method of research here and is also preferred with students in general as they are able to do this extensively.
5. It is also very quick and several surveys can be recorded in a short amount of time without needing much else. This helps in there being more data pints to examine when drawing a conclusion. The survey done here of the 53 taxi drivers was done over a period of 2 days which is very fast for the wealth of knowledge it gave insight to.

But there are some cons too of surveys which we shall discuss below in light of the present topic.

1. The data presented is sampled data and not the full data. For example the data of the 53 taxi drivers in Plymouth presented here is something the surveyor has chosen by herself, in that she has selected these 53 people base don some criteria and not been able to sample the data for all the taxi drivers in the city. Even if a mail was sent to every one of them typically a fraction of it responds. So care should be taken when drawing conclusions about the entire population from the sampled data.
2. In light of the above point it might very well happen that most people are not inclined to fill out the particular survey and the ones who fill it out are the ones very enthusiastic about the topic and hence this would give rise to inherent bias in that the person must be feeling very strongly about the issue in agreement or disagreement.
3. In a qualitative survey there are often responses where the actual question is not answered or the question is not answered properly so that the interviewer can categorise the response in one way or another. Also they responses might well be irrational or overtly emotional which has the disadvantage of ruining the unbiasedness of a survey. Not only that external factors are likely to influence the responses. If a taxi driver had a very rude customer that day, he would be more likely to mark the response as that he is thinking about changing is job when this might not even be the actual case or the reality of his situation.
4. Another con of this is that the survey is only as good as the questions being asked. If the survey is very good such that the questions are in a reasonable order and also that the survey has question so a stop validate what was said before and also, if not fully to try and gauge broadly what could be the reason for most of the surveys then the survey is very good. However it is hardly ever possible to create such perfect questionnaires so there are often specification biases also from the end of the surveyor.

So, in conclusion, in future this same experiment might be carried out with many more respondents so as to have a more extensive set to present the results of the analysis on. 

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