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# STAT6003 Statistics For Financial Decisions

## Question:

2. Market place Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020 Schmeckt Gut has recently entered the Swedish market and the Board is interested in an estimate of this year’s sales as well as potential sales for the next 5 years (until 2020). Additional details are provided below. Data set: The excel file provides you with four data sets for the 4 countries of interest which include: • Sales figures in US\$ (not available for Sweden) • GDP data in US\$ • Average Price Index (in %) • Population (15-65 years of age) Assessment 2 Briefs: Presentation Page 3 of 9 • Survey score – this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied) • Number of average advertisements • Number of stores All data is exogenous and independent except in their relation with the sales figures. Detailed tasks 1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020 • Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis) • Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and:

o (i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results • Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020. o Hint: You should use natural logs (ln) for your analysis as discussed in your assignment of Module 5. o For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and Population developments. ? For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected?

2. Market place Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020 • Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection. o Hint: Look at average GDP per capita statistics (GDP divided by Population) and Price Index. • Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country’s characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market. o Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020. ? See pg 40 of the ‘IMF 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION’ report for Sweden for the data. Assessment 2 Briefs: Presentation Page 4 of 9 3.

Other suggestions - Based on your analysis in parts 1 and 2, are there any other suggestions you have for the Board on how Schmeckt Gut can boost sales in the countries? Your presentation: - Create a presentation (for example with PowerPoint) and turn your presentation into a video. o See https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Turn-your-presentation-into-avideo-c140551f-cb37-4818-b5d4-3e30815c3e83 for details should you decide to use PowerPoint o You can also use any other suitable programs - Present your main results that will assist the Board in their decision making o Focus on the main results and explain which techniques you have applied to achieve these results and why you used these techniques. o What do these results imply? o What are your main recommendations? - Your presentation should not be longer than 15 minutes - Submit your narrated video on Blackboard.

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[Accessed 10 August 2022].

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My Assignment Help. Statistics For Financial Decisions [Internet]. My Assignment Help. 2020 [cited 10 August 2022]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/stat6003-statistics-for-financial-decisions/interpretation-of-correlation-coefficient.html.

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