Management Report on Decision Making Techniques

The learning outcomes that are assessed by this coursework are:

1. Identify the required components of a BI system by systematic analysis of a perceived problem area, appraisal of available techniques and tools, and the critical evaluation of developed systems.

2. Conceptual understanding of a range of predictive analysis techniques, critically evaluating current research and new insights.

3. Design appropriate BI systems using appropriate BI approaches.

Your task is to prepare a management report in which to illustrate to management how the techniques of forecasting, optimisation and simulation and Business Intelligence more broadly could be useful to the organisation. As management know little of these techniques, you need to demonstrate how they will work in practice. For this purpose, data has been supplied for you to carry out some of the techniques. Further details of the task and deliverables are given overleaf.  

Your marked coursework and feedback will be available to you on:

If for any reason this is not forthcoming by the due date your module leader will let you know why and when it can be expected. The Associate Professor Student Experience ([email protected]) should be informed of any issues relating to the return of marked coursework and feedback.

Late submission of coursework policy:

Late submissions will be processed in accordance with current University regulations which state: “the time period during which a student may submit a piece of work late without authorisation and have the work capped at 40% [50% at PG level] if passed is 14 calendar days. Work submitted unauthorised more than 14 calendar days after the original submission date will receive a mark of 0%. These regulations apply to a student’s first attempt at coursework. Work submitted late without authorisation which constitutes reassessment of a previously failed piece of coursework will always receive a mark of 0%.”

Decision Making Techniques (50%)

Forecasting (20%)

a. Provide an overview of how forecasting techniques could be useful. Highlight any problems or areas of caution with the technique of forecasting.

b. Application of forecasting techniques. For this task you should use the data supplied in Appendix 1. Use this data to demonstrate how the different products show different characteristics with regard to forecasting. Identify the most appropriate forecasting technique for each of the three products given and justify your choice. Give forecasts for year 4. Critically evaluate your results highlighting whether you consider the model to be good or not. Use just one of the product’s data to demonstrate a methodology for evaluating your model.

Linear Programming/Linear optimisation (15%)

a. Provide an overview of how linear programming could be useful. Critically evaluate the technique and identify areas in the organisation where linear programming could be used. (The ASW text book has a large number of examples especially in Chapter 4.)

b. Application of linear programming techniques. For this task you should carry out a linear programming analysis using the data in appendix 2. In the first example  formulate and solve the problem and hence identify the mix that gives the optimal results and advise management on producing theseproducts. In the case of the second example on staff/labour planning please only formulate the problem - there is no requirement to solve this problem.

Simulation (15%)

a. Provide an overview of how the technique of queuing models and simulation could be useful. Critically evaluate the technique and identify areas in the organisation where this technique could be used.

b. Carry out an analysis of a retail branch queueing system noting the following information: The Leicester branch experiences a mean arrival rate of 2 per minute. The average time to serve a customer is 0.5 minutes. Investigate the effects of different numbers of servers on the customers’ total time in the system (i.e queueing time plus service time) Interpret results for management and advise on the number of branch staff required. You can assume a single queue system is in operation