As an engineer, very often you have to deal with problems that involve careful consideration, analysis, optimisation, interpretation, conclusion and decision. This assignment consists of three parts (A – Decision analysis, B – Network analysis and C – Shortest path analysis). Each part comprises a case study which poses real systems challenges in terms of planning, optimization and decision making. You will need to apply appropriate methods to analyze, interpret, and provide decisions regarding the problem context and write a brief report of your recommendations.
Please make sure that your written report is in pdf format. If you use Microsoft Word, then you must convert it to pdf before you submit it.
You will need to write a managerial report consisting of solutions on the three case study problems. Marks will be awarded based on the quality of analysis, interpretation, critical appraisal etc. in applying related perspectives to the case material. Your report should include
• an introduction
• detailed calculations, formula, results and interpretation for each case study
• appropriate decisions and recommendations for each case study
• critical appraisal for each case study and
• an overall conclusion.
Make sure that your results, interpretations, discussion and conclusion are concise. Feedback: Feedback and marks on the submitted coursework will be released by 11th September
A brief introduction to the case THREE studies (10 marks) Assignment - Part A: Decision Analysis (25 marks)
DENKO Manufacturing UK Ltd. is considering the launch of a new steel product. Data from the internal market research department show that there is a 75% chance of high sales giving a revenue of £50,000 and a 25% chance of low sales, resulting in a loss of £60,000.
The company could obtain alternative market research information from OC&C Strategy Consultants at a cost of £10,000. Past experience of information provided by OC&C Strategy Consultants indicates that they will report that there is an 80% chance of high sales and a 20% chance of low sales. However, further analysis also indicates that if the consultants forecast high sales there is a 5% chance that this will be incorrect (and low sales will occur), whilst if they forecast low sales there is a 35% chance that this will be incorrect (and high sales will occur).
Revenue/loss figures will be unaffected by any additional information obtained from OC&C Strategy Consultants.
DENKO Manufacturing UK Ltd. has been approached by another company offering to pay £22,500 for full rights to develop and sell the new product but this will entail solicitor’s fees of £3,000. Managerial report:
Perform a decision analysis of the problem facing DENKO Manufacturing UK Ltd. and prepare a report that summarises your findings, recommendations and critical appraisal. Include the following information in your report
• a decision tree that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem
• the recommendation of a course of action to the company using Bayes rule
• the profit/loss table showing the possible levels of profit the company can make and the associated probabilities
• the course of action and associated outcome if the company is totally risk-averse
• a critical appraisal