Comparison of Analytical and Numerical Solutions for Digital Fingerprint Process - Tasks and Analysi

M/M/c Queueing System to Analytically Determine Operational Characteristics

Tasks – Comparison of analytical and numerical solutions for Digital Fingerprint process

1.Use an M/M/c queueing system to analytically determine the operational characteristics of the digital fingerprinting operation (provide times in units of hours).

2.How many CSIs are needed at any one time to meet the demand generated through petty crime?

3.Simulate  the same system using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and compare the numerical solution to the analytical solution to make sure that your answers are correct. You should present the average of the simulation results, plus the lower and higher ranges. Where relevant quote the times in minutes. The analytical solutions should lie within the lower and higher of the numerical solutions(again provide times in hours).

Task – Analysis of current DNA matching process

1.Using the accompanying Simul8 file, extract relevant results for the current operational system (e.g. time in system, time in queue) in minutes. Using separate graphs/tables, identify the main stages of the system that delay the samples from being matched. Where relevant show the distributions as well as the average.

Tasks – Scenario Analysis

1.Modify the current DNA matching process to model Scenarios 1-5.

2.Estimate the minimum, average and maximum times in system for each scenario.

3.Using comparative analysis of queueing time distributions, identify and explain how each scenario improves the distribution of sample times in system.

Tasks – ROI analysis

1.A standard “ROI” metric for policing is arrests per £m spent. Assuming a constant rate of 5000 DNA samples per year and that the average time in system for each scenario is an appropriate metric to assess the ROI, estimate the ROI for the traditional DNA forensics process and the proposed Rapid DNA scenarios. Present your findings in a suitable graph.

2.Discuss the ROI findings. What is your recommendation? Do you recommend moving to a Rapid DNA process? If so, which scenario do you recommend?

3.Consider the distribution (not just the average) of times in system for each scenario. What effect do you think the distribution of the times in system for each scenario will have on the estimated ROI? Can you incorporate the distribution of time in system into your ROI estimate? Does this change your recommendations?