Agri-Tourism and Forecasting Model for Blackberry Hill Farm

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1 Analyse the use of planning and scheduling tools and techniques within the operational environment.

2 Critically appraise and apply appropriate tools to assess the current business environment.

3 Evaluate alternative improvement options using mathematical modelling and simulation tools.

4 Develop a forecast plan with a supporting business case to the executive board of an organisation.

‘Six years ago I had never heard of agri-tourism. As far as I was concerned, I had inherited the farm and I would be a farmer all my life.’ (Jim Walker, Blackberry Hill Farm)

The ‘agri-tourism’ that Jim was referring to is ‘a commercial enterprise at a working farm, or other agricultural centre, conducted for the enjoyment of visitors that generates supplemental income for the owner’. ‘Farming has become a tough business,’ says Jim. ‘Low world prices, a reduction in subsidies, and increasingly uncertain weather patterns have made it a far more risky business than when I first inherited the farm. Yet, because of our move into the tourist trade we are flourishing. Also I’ve never had so much fun in my life.’ But, Jim warns, agri-tourism isn’t for everyone. ‘You have to think carefully. Do you really want to do it? What kind of life style do you want? How open-minded are you to new ideas? How business-minded are you? Are you willing to put a lot of effort into marketing your business? Above all, do you like working with people? If you would rather be around cows than people, it isn’t the business for you.’

Tasks:

1.Detail the current business issues being faced by Blackberry Hill Farm

2.Discuss why Blackberry Hill Farm should develop a stable forecasting model.

Discuss and justify your preferred forecast model,

4.Discussion around the accuracy of the forecast model and how the model is measured against historical data

Part 1 (LO 4) – Individual presentation, the following areas should be covered and explained in detail. (25%)

Develop a forecast plan with a supporting business case to the executive board of an organisation

-Based on historical data develop a forecast for Blackberry Hill Farm for the following twelve months.

-Appraise a number of different forecast techniques and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each technique, from this analysis justify the technique you are proposing.

Discuss how forecasts can be measured in terms of the accuracy of the forecast, must include a minimum of two different techniques

·Critical analysis

·Oral communication skills

·Written communication skills

·Application of scheduling and forecasting tools for decision-making purposes