Macroeconomic Outlook Report for Germany: An Investment Bank Perspective

Task

The objective of this project is for you to write up a macroeconomic outlook report for Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, as if you were working for an investment bank, consultancy firm or a government agency.

The report has a word limit of 1,000 words (not counting the bibliography, section headings and table and figure captions).

The main resources for your report will be:

i. Data downloaded from the website https://stats.oecd.org. The data you need can be found in the Labour and National Accounts tabs.

 

ii. The OECD Economic Outlook series for your countries of choice, particularly the most recent ones.

 

iii. Any articles, op-eds, commentaries, policy reports or research papers that you can uncover through your own internet searches. The Economist magazine is a good place to search for thoughtful op-eds and commentaries, while each country’s central bank or Treasury is a good place to search for policy reports.

Make sure to cite all your sources following the instructions below.

i. This is an individual assignment to be completed independently.

 

ii.  Collaboration is not permitted. Cases of plagiarism will be dealt with according to university policies.

 

iii. Write your report using font size 11 and submit your coursework as a pdf file.

 

iii. DO not copy and paste graphs from other sources. For any graph that you include in your report, you need to download the data and plot it in Excel (or any other software you choose). Make sure to label all axes and list the source of the data and a description of the variables used in the graph’s footnote.

1. Provide a brief description of the macroeconomic performance of Germany by showing the evolution of the growth rate of real GDP, inflation, and unemployment rate from the first quarter of 2015 until the last quarter
for which data is available.

2. Compare the macroeconomic performance of Germany with respect to France, the second largest economy in the Eurozone. Discuss the similarities and differences between the two countries in terms of their macroeconomic performance.

3. Using annual GDP data for 2019 from the Annual National Accounts section of https://stats.oecd.org, draw pie charts that illustrate the composition of GDP in Germany and France using the expenditure and income approaches (compensation of employees, gross operating surplus and taxes less subsidies on production and imports). Discuss the similarities and differences between the two countries.

4. Using annual data from the International Trade and Balance of Payments section of https://stats.oecd.org, calculate the balance of trade in goods as a share of GDP (make sure that both GDP and the balance of trade in goods are measured in the same unit, e.g. millions of national currency) over the period 2000-2019. Produce a graph that depicts the evolution of this variable for Germany and France and discuss the potential economic causes driving the differences between the two countries.

Your report will be assessed against the following criteria:

Knowledge and Understanding [30%]: Does the report show evidence that as a group, you have collectively familiarised yourselves with the macroeconomic performance of your chosen countries, correctly identified the trends in the data, and offered thoughtful and plausible explanations for them?

Analysis and Application [30%]: Where relevant, does the report show evidence that the appropriate macroeconomic concepts and models have been applied in analysing the data?

Research Design and Referencing [20%]: Is there evidence of independent research into sources of information and insight relevant to answering the questions addressed in the report? Have the data been correctly plotted and interpreted?

Communication and Structure [20%]: Is the report well presented, clear written and accessible? Is it structured in a logical way which makes it easy to follow its findings? Does it use proper referencing, diagrams labelled & integrated, correct grammar & spelling, spacing and visual appeal etc?