MGT4646 Supply Chain Planning Individual Assignment

General Instructions

·You need to have a clear title page with your name, student number, module code, number etc

·You have to clearly indicate the calculations and explain how you arrived at the answer by providing the formula

·You have to submit two files – a word document and an excel sheet (You can embed the excel sheet into word document)

·In excel, ensure that you clearly title the sheet and don’t try to solve two different problems in the same sheet

·Use references where necessary

1.Forecasting (30%)

In 2007, Britain witnessed the wettest record in history and the financial damages of the floods to properties alone were estimated to be £1.5bn. Several businesses were shut for months and sadly businesses in low lying areas were affected more than others. Nash Ltd is a grocery retailer based in Gloucestershire, who was forced to shuts its operations due to floods. The store was closed for operations between June and September 2007. Due to the loss, Nash wanted to file an insurance claim for the lost sales.

In order to submit a claim, Nash must identify the value of two figures.

1.Calculate the sales that Nash would have made if there were no floods  (7.5 Marks)

2.Calculate the sales that the region would have if there were no floods (7.5 Marks)

3.Calculate the additional sales that Nash could have generated due to increased demand for their products from temporary construction, rescue and government workers

Write a short managerial report  (explaining your findings, forecasts and recommendations. Include the following:

·An estimate of sales if there has been no flood

·An estimate of the sales that the region would have gained if there were no floods

·An estimate of lost sales Nash for June to September 2007.

The report (Max 500 words) can be structured as

·Key Findings, forecasts (In this section you need to include the following)

oSales Nash would have made if there were no floods

oSales region would have if there were no floods

oAdditional Sales Nash could have generated

Market research has indicated that a promotion dropping prices by 1% in a given month will increase sales in that month by 20% and bring forward 10% demand from each of the following two months. Thus a 1% drop in price in March increases sales in March by 3000 (=0.2*15,000) and shifts 1,800 (=.1*18,000) units in demand from April and 2,500 (=.1*25,000) units from May forward to March.

a.What is the total production cost for the year if we assume no promotion and keep the production constant? What is the annual profit from this plan? What is the cost of this plan?

b.Is it better to promote in April or July? How much increase in profit can be achieved as a result?

c.If hoods are sold for £250 instead of £125, does the decision about the timing of the promotion change? Why?

Assume that Thomas Cope can alter the headcount by firing or hiring. Hiring a new employee incurs a cost of £1000, firing an employee incurs a cost of £2000

a.What would be the total production cost for the year if we assume no promotion? What is the annual profit with this plan? What is the cost of this plan?

b.Is it better to promote in April or July? How much increase in profit can be achieved as a result?

c.If the holding cost for hood increases from £3 per month to £5 per month, does the decision of the timing of promotion change? Why?

Response to this question

You can summarise the answers for this question in a word document, I would leave it to your creativity and imagination in presenting the answers. Please bear in mind that the responses are easy to follow and nicely formatted.