Autism Incidence Data in Northern Ireland: Analysis and Interpretation

Calculating new autism cases in Northern Ireland from 2015-2018

To answer this question, you will be working with some data on the number of new cases of autism in Northern Ireland across the years 2015–2018 in five different Health and Social Care (HSC) trusts. These data are available in an Excel spreadsheet and also repeated in Tables 1A–D and 2 on the next page. Answers can be calculated manually from Tables 1A–D and 2, or if you are familiar with using spreadsheets, you can use the appropriate functions in the Excel spreadsheet (see the learning guide for using formulas in Excel).

Please note that this question includes several question parts. For some question parts, you will need to show your working to demonstrate your numeracy skills. Please see 6.1 Working with numbers in the SK298 Primer if you need a reminder on basic numeracy skills.

To demonstrate good academic practice, you should include citations for your sources of information in parts (e), (f) and (g) of this question. You can provide references after each question part, or in one list at the end of all your answers to this question.

(a). Using Table 1A–D, calculate the total number of new cases per year (2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018) for the whole of Northern Ireland. (Hint: you will first need to calculate the total number of new cases per year (2015–2018) for each HSC Trust (Northern, South Eastern, Southern, Western). The data for Belfast is provided as an example.) Present your data in an appropriate table.

(b). Now describe the trend in the number of new autism cases in Northern Ireland over the four years (2015–2018). In other words, looking at the data you calculated in the above question, what pattern do these values show? Describe the pattern quantitatively by discussing the approximate magnitude of change over time.

(c). Now convert the number of new autism cases for the Belfast HSC Trust in 2015 into a percentage of the total Northern Ireland cases for 2015. Repeat this for the Belfast HSC Trust in 2018, the Western HSC Trust in 2015 and the Western HSC Trust in 2018, using the total Northern Ireland cases for the corresponding years. Round your percentage answers to the nearest whole number. Show your working in your answers.

(d). Using the child population data from 2018 that are shown in Table 2, calculate the incidence per 1000 child population for autism in each of the five HSC Trusts (in 2018 only). Round your answers to two decimal places. Show your working in your answers.

(e). This question has required you to calculate incidence data for autism in Northern Ireland. Define the term ‘incidence’ using an example from the spreadsheet. Remember to use your own words in your answer.

(f). The data you have been working with cover the period 2015–2018. Using the module materials, explain how the diagnostic categories relevant to autism changed in 2013 with the publication of DSM-5. What effect, if any, are these changes likely to have had on the incidence of autism since 2013 as opposed to incidence prior to 2013?

(g). In Topic 3 you explored the possible alterations to ‘theory of mind’ in people with autism. Briefly describe how this aspect of cognition might be altered in people with autism. Describe a test that can be used to detect these changes in a person with autism and the results that you might expect to see.