Dynamic Strategic Planning and Forecasting in Aviation: Pros, Cons, and Reasons for FAA Encouragemen

Reasons for Carrying out Forecasting

Why Forecasting Is Still Carried Out Despite Occasions Where They Proved To Be Inaccurate. Be Certain To Stress The Pros And Cons Of The Process. Also, Consider And Debate Whether Or Not Airport Planners Should Continue To Base Master Plans On Forecasting. Also, Find Out Why Faa Still Encouraged Forecasting Despite Being Flawed?

Defend Your Response With Good Examples. Please Make Sure All Requirements Have Been Answered Provide Top Quality Work Done As i Don’t Wish To Come Back For Any Rework.

Over the years, the competitive landscape has significantly changed for many industries, thereby forcing managers to emphasize more on strategic plans along with the process of developing it (Dibrell, Down, & Bull, 2007). Dynamic strategic planning is considered the key aspect of Airport Master Planning. Thus, in this context, dynamic strategic planning can be defined as the process of making plans specifically relating to infrastructure, which can be adjusted eventually to a real situation. This process states that the future cannot be predicted accurately, thereby leading all the forecast to be wrong. Therefore, a plan needs to be flexible so that it can deal with the issues in the future (Kwakkel, Walker, & Marchau, 2010). The objective of this essay is to understand the overall concept of dynamic strategic planning. This essay also focuses on portraying the reasons for carrying out forecasting even though it is incorrect along with the pros and cons of using it in airports. The essay also examines the reason for the FAA to encourage forecasting despite its flaws.

Kwakkel, Walker, and Marchau (2010) stated that even though problems related to the biases of the forecaster are mitigated, there are uncertainties that can lead it towards failure. With respect to the aviation sector, demand forecasting has been perceived to be highly problematic due to uncertainties. However, there is still a high demand for forecasting, especially while overcoming the uncertainties in Airport Master Planning (AMP). In this context, AMP has been unable to plan for the future development of the airports. An example can be cited from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol along with Boston Logan Airport, and Denver International Airport that some of the airport plans have been unsuccessful to depict future development (Kwakkel, Walker, & Marchau, 2010).

The advantage of using forecasting is that it helps in predicting traffic along with peak-period parameters, which is considered essential for air navigation systems planners. This is mainly because it helps in estimating the time and place related to congestion. Hence, “traffic forecasts are required by ICAO’s regional planning and implementation groups for air navigation systems planning including the implementation of CNS/ATM systems across the regions” (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2006, II-1). In addition, another advantage of using the forecasting technique in airports is that it assists in estimating aircraft movements, even though it is applicable only for short duration (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2006).

Pros and Cons of Forecasting in Aviation Planning

The disadvantages or cons of foresting in relation to aviation planning are the challenges associated with uncertainty in AMP. Even though aviation demand forecasts help in estimating the passengers along with goods, and air transport movement, but the estimation can be considered a major concern. For instance, the forecast, which was implemented for the plan in relation to the continuing development of Schiphol in the year 1995, was an estimation of aviation demand for 2015. This was specifically related to the number of passengers. Similarly, for identifying the average number of travelers on an airplane it was found that the forecast was actually done for air transport movements (Kwakkel, Walker, & Marchau, 2010). This indicates that there are issues that must be mitigated in order to forecast efficiently in the aviation planning process.

Sumathi, Balakrishnan, and Venugopal (2018) stated that forecasting helps in assessing the present along with impending movements of the airports. It also supports an airport to establish an idea for developing airport activities over the anticipated time. It further supports airports in developing the existing and strategic requirements based on airport activity forecasts. Additionally, forecasts focus on enhancing realistic estimation (Sumathi, Balakrishnan, & Venugopal, 2018). Hence, it can be suggested that the airport planners need to base their master plans on forecasting.

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) (2007) defined AMP as “the goal of a master plan is to provide guidelines for future airport development that will cost-effectively satisfy aviation demand while considering potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts” (2). The FAA further encourages the airport planners to estimate and consider the prevailing environmental, as well as socio-economic costs, which are related to other development concepts. Additionally, they should also consider the possible means to avert and minimize or mitigate the overall effects on sensitive resources at a suitable level for facilitating the planning process. The FAA is also engaged in reviewing the core concepts of the master plan for making sure that appropriate techniques are implemented. Hence, the master plan must further make certain that the underlying assumptions along with the forecasting approaches are all appropriate. In this regard, “Paragraph 704.h of this guidance should be used to determine the consistency of the master plan forecast levels and the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)” (Federal Aviation Administration, 2015, 8). Besides, “Inconsistencies between the master plan forecast and TAF must be resolved, and the forecast approved, before proceeding with subsequent planning work” (Federal Aviation Administration, 2007, 8).

Conclusion

Based on the overall understanding, it can be ascertained that dynamic strategic planning is an important aspect of airports. This is because it can help in mitigating the uncertainties such as wrong forecasting so that future plans can be made appropriately, which can lead towards further development.

References

Dibrell, C., Down, J., & Bull, L. (2007). Dynamic strategic planning: Achieving strategic flexibility through formalization. Journal of Business and Management, 13( 1), 21-35.

Federal Aviation Administration. (2007). Advisory circular. U.S. Department of Transportation, 1-136.

Federal Aviation Administration. (2015). Change 2 to airport master plan. U.S. Department of Transportation, 1-152.

International Civil Aviation Organization. (2006). Manual on air traffic forecasting. ICAO, 1-III-28.

Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & Marchau, V. A. W. J. (2010). Adaptive airport strategic planning. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 10(3), 249-273.

Sumathi, N., Balakrishnan, A., & Venugopal, A. (2018). A Study on the master planning in airports. International Journal of Latest Technology in Engineering, Management & Applied Science, VII(IV), 157-162.