Analysis of Past Energy Market Predictions and Their Comparison with Current Scenario

The Purpose of the Exercise

The purpose of this exercise is to analyse predictions made in the past about how energy markets were expected to evolve up to the present day (and beyond), and compare these with what actually happened. Table 1 and Figure 1 (which shows data from Table 1 graphically), provide information about energy projections made a few decades ago. The term ‘inexhaustible energies’ used here refers to what we would now call renewables, plus nuclear fusion.

For most recent energy statistics, use contemporary sources (see module Resource Lists). In particular, you may want to use the WEC (2017) and IEA (2017).

Present your comparisons between past projections and current energy use (based on recent years available in reports) in graphical and tabular form. Analysis should be undertaken primarily at the global level, although you can refer to the influence of different regions on production and consumption.

Explain the reasons for differences between earlier projections and current energy usage, and discuss what this means for how energy supply is likely to evolve up to 2050.

In most cases, the years for which energy data are provided or predicted do not coincide. You can decide how to deal with this, for example, by interpolation or extrapolation. Be careful to check units and ensure you are comparing numbers from different sources using the same unit, converting if necessary.

Context - To provide background to the projections in Table 1 and Figure 1, the Summary and Conclusions section of Ion (1978) is provided on Blackboard as a scanned PDF document. It is important that you read this.

Table 1: World energy supply 1950 – 2050 (data known until 1974). Source: Ion (1978).

Note that Figure 1 just reproduces what is in Table 1. This is a ‘stacked line’ chart so the amount is the vertical distance between the lines, not the line itself. Crude oil and gas become very small by 2050, and the top line shows the total, reaching 26 Gtoe (26,000 Mtoe in the table); this is not the value of inexhaustible energies (i.e. renewables and nuclear fusion).

Figure 1: World energy supply projections 1950 – 2050 (source: Figure 10 in Ion (1978); from Introduction, “Figure Ten illustrates the ideas which I hold on 5 December, 1977 as the shape of things to come”).

The report must not be longer than 7 pages in total, including the title page and references, and there should be no appendices.

Use a style appropriate to a technical report (i.e. formal, factual and to the point). Use portrait A4 format with a single column. Include page numbers in the footer.

You should use Calibri, Times New Roman or similar font of size no less than 11 points. Leave a ½ or 1 line space between paragraphs. Your report must include the following, in this order (including your own headings):

• Title page (include your name, course code, module name, month and year of submission) with executive summary [150 words max.]
• Introduction
• [your chosen headings]
• Conclusions
• References

You do not need a table of contents, list of figures or list of tables. All tables and figures must be numbered Table 1, etc., and referred to in the text. It is best to do this in Word using ‘insert caption’ and ‘insert cross reference’ when referring to these in the text, from the References tab. The ‘Conclusions’ should clearly summarise the logic of your narrative.

A long set of references is not expected but you should include some. Your references should reinforce your discussion and identify sources of information. These should mainly be reliable sources such as books and refereed papers; there should be only a small number, if any, of commercial sites, blogs, press articles, etc. Use the Harvard (author (year)) or IEEE system [number] for references (in Word you can use Endnotes for IEEE). Self-study guides explaining referencing is available from the DMU library web pages2. You should submit as a PDF file if possible (in Word: Save As PDF). Check the final PDF version for errors, as this will be the version that is marked (converted, if necessary, from electronic submissions). Note that fields are updated when saving to PDF and this can produce unexpected results.

Successful completion of this coursework will demonstrate the ability to:

1. Analyse and organise data from different sources;

2. Explain why past predictions of the evolution of energy markets differed from what actually transpired, and consider how this affects our current attempts to project forward;

3. Use information from a range of sources, and cite and reference correctly;

4. Produce a well-structured, well-written, clear, and concise report that is appropriate for postgraduate level.