Analyzing Monthly and Quarterly Demand: Forecasting Methods for Chemical Production Company

Submission Guidelines and Originality Score Information

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Your overall total word count should not exceed 2,500 words (Weighted at 30% of final mark for the module)

Coursework Description:

UOLI Ltd is a chemical production company. One of the products they make is sold in three distinct markets: domestic, export and as an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) for Bayes plc. The excel data file DEMAND.XLSX contains monthly demand over 50 months for domestic and export sales and quarterly demand figures for OEM over the same 50-month period.

You are required to analyse the data and produce a report providing a recommendation for a forecasting method for each market and use this to produce forecasts for the next year. Your analysis should be based on decomposition, exponential smoothing and regression forecasting
approaches for each time series.

With this course work you should produce a report containing:

An executive summary (approximately 250 words), which should summarise what was done, why, how, what was concluded and recommended (5%)

An introduction including discussing why forecasting of these variables is important to the organisation and how the forecast might be used. Also include some preliminary analysis of the data (15%)

A section on forecasting the domestic demand, explaining the application of the methods explored and the results obtained. (15%)

 
A section on forecasting the export demand, explaining the application of the methods explored and the results obtained. (15%)

A section on forecasting the OEM demand, explaining the application of the methods explored and the results obtained. (15%)

A concluding section including a summary of the findings, comparison of the accuracy of the ifferent methods employed for each time series, and recommendations on the appropriate method of forecasting, together with production of the required future forecasts. You should also provide qualitative commentary on the confidence you have in your forecasts.(20%)

An appendix giving a discussion of assumptions you have made in completion of this work and suggestions on how you might extend the work if time and resources were available. (15%)