Engineering Assignment: Decision Analysis, Network Analysis and Minimal Spanning Tree Analysis

Assignment Brief

As an engineer, very often you have to deal with problems that involve careful consideration, analysis, optimisation, interpretation, conclusion and decision. This assignment consists of three parts (A – Decision analysis, B – Network analysis and C – Minimal spanning tree analysis). Each part comprises a case study which poses real systems challenges in terms of planning, optimization and decision making. You will need to apply appropriate methods to analyze, interpret, and provide decisions regarding the problem context and write a brief report of your recommendations (approximately 2,000 words for the whole report).

Please make sure that your written report is in pdf format. If you use Microsoft Word, then you must convert it to pdf before you submit it.

You will need to write a managerial report consisting of solutions on the three case study problems. Marks will be awarded based on the quality of analysis, interpretation, critical appraisal etc. in applying related perspectives to the case material. Your report should include

• An introduction

• Detailed calculations, formula, results and interpretation for each case study

• Appropriate decisions and recommendations for each case study

• Critical appraisal for each case study and

• An overall conclusion.

Make sure that your results, interpretations, discussion and conclusion are concise.

The BPL Oil Company is considering making a bid for a shale oil development contract to be awarded by the government. The company has decided to bid £110 million. The company estimates that it has a 60% chance of winning the contract with this bid. If the firm wins the contract, it can choose one of three methods for getting the oil from the shale. It can develop a new method for oil extraction, use an existing (inefficient) process, or subcontract the processing to a number of smaller companies once the shale has been excavated. The results from these alternatives are as follows:

The cost of preparing the contract proposal is £2 million. If the company does not make a bid, it will invest in an alternative venture with a guaranteed profit of £30 million.

Perform a decision analysis of the problem facing BPL by constructing a sequential decision tree for this decision situation and determine whether the company should make a bid including a report that summarises your findings, recommendations, and a critical appraisal. Include the following information in your report

• A decision tree with all necessary values that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem

Assignment - Part A: Decision Analysis (25 marks)

• The recommendation of a course of action to the company using Bayes rule (expected value approach)

• The recommendation of a course of action and associated outcome if the company is totally risk-averse

• A critical appraisal.

BPL Oil Company has decided to move its regional office to a recently developed building in Glasgow. The project management team has identified a series of activities, their completion time and predecessors for the project shown below. The executives want to know the earliest completion time of the project.

BPL Oil Company also wishes to know whether the project can be completed over a 21-day period with the least cost. The project management team has obtained the following information for normal and crash duration of the project, along with associated costs.

Develop a report that presents the project completion time to move to the new building showing the following:

• Construction of the network diagram to show the activity sequence accurately

• An event-based analysis of the project, i.e., obtaining earliest event times (TE) and latest event times (TL), inserting them appropriately into the diagram and, hence, obtaining the critical path and project duration

• An activity-based analysis, i.e., obtaining EST, EFT, LST, LFT, total float (TF) and free float (FF), showing the values (TF and FF) in a table and, obtaining the critical path and project duration

• Crashing decisions to meet the desired 21-day completion time at the least possible cost making the crashing decisions and developing an activity schedule one-by-one and taking least cost first. Calculation of extra project cost required to meet the 21-day completion time including all critical paths

• A critical appraisal.

The BPL Oil Company is planning to connect its eight small depots (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8) in the Edinburgh area. The company must develop a system of oil pipeline that makes each depot accessible from every other depot. The distance (in miles) between every pair of depots is as follows:

Management now wishes to determine between which pairs of depots the pipeline should be constructed to connect all depots with a minimum total length of pipeline to minimise its cost.

Perform an analysis of BPL Oil Company’s minimal spanning tree problem to connect all depots at the minimal length of pipelines. Prepare a report that summarises your findings. Be sure to include information and analysis on the following:

• Minimal spanning tree analysis including the minimal length of pipeline

• A critical appraisal.