Three VFR Scenarios in Aviation: Risk Assessment and Decision Making

VFR Scenario 1

VFR Scenario 1

 You are a 37-hour Student Pilot and you are finally on your solo cross-country. You have waited for this day for at least 3 weeks. Weather has been completely awful because of 2 frontal patterns that kept you on the ground due to either wind or rain. Your instructor called you only the day before to let you know about this possible window of opportunity. Organizing your schedule to make this happen has been a struggle.

Although you freed your schedule in the morning, your boss expects you at the warehouse for at least “half a day.” This is the second time in 2 weeks you have asked for a schedule adjustment for flying.

You finally get in the air. You feel a little rushed. You had to take your second-choice aircraft. The local Departure Control asks you a question you do not understand… “Say again for 34 Alpha.”

You are just beginning to enjoy the flight when you realize the weather at your destination is different than forecasted. The AWOS says the winds are “zero-five-five at one-zero gusting one-seven.” The weather is VFR, but the aircraft is having to noticeably crab to the right in order to track the centerline of Runway 1. It is also gusty. The aircraft is moving around and bouncing a bit more than you’re comfortable with. Your first approach ends in a go-around.

You begin to think through the consequences of these issues and go back to your PAVE checklist.

 1. Address the situation from the perspective of each letter in the PAVE checklist found in Chapter 3. What do you see? What would you do?

a.Pilot –

b.Aircraft –

c.environment –

d.External pressures –

 

2. Refer to Figure 13 in the Nall Report. Consider also the summary data in the Types of Pilot-Related Accidents chart. How does this scenario compare with the accident statistics provided?

 

3. Refer to Figure 36 in the Airman Knowledge Testing Supplement for Sport Pilot, Recreational Pilot, and Private Pilot. What is the sustained crosswind component? Hint: the sustained wind is 10kts. 

VFR Scenario 2

You’re a 125-hour Private Pilot. You recently did a night checkout with an instructor and then completed 1 solo night flight in the airport practice area. You were also able to ride-a-long on a friend’s dual night cross-country the night before this flight.

You have been planning to take a close friend on a flight so they could visit a relative. The plan is to fly the 1-hour+ flight, meet up at the airport, go to dinner, and then return home before it gets too late.

VFR Scenario 2

You only “planned” 1 leg (filled out just 1 nav log). Your flight instructor was not available when you and your friend arrived at the airport. Mrs. McCauley informed you that Bob (the CFI) had not returned with your aircraft from his dual lesson. He wasn’t due back until 6 p.m. (your departure time).

You took off almost 45 minutes later than planned. The food was good. The conversation was better. Plus, you had fun letting your friends watch you do the preflight for the return flight home.

Takeoff was routine. However, you and your friend both laughed when you mentioned you should have gone to the bathroom before the flight. It was dark by this time—very dark.

Because it was so late, you had not bothered to complete the nav log for the return leg. You figured the combination of flight following along with the GPS was good enough.

It was soon after you reached your cruise altitude that you noticed flashes of light on the horizon in the vicinity of your destination. Your friend then asked if that was lightening. “Yes,” you replied.

You begin to think through the consequences of these issues and go back to your PAVE checklist.

1. Address the situation from the perspective of each letter in the PAVE checklist found in Chapter 3. What do you see? What would you do?

a.Pilot –

b.Aircraft –

c.environment –

d.External pressures –

 

2. Use the comprehensive risk assessment tool below and calculate a score for the return flight. What is the score, and what did you discover?

 

3. Does the score seem accurate?

 

4. Would you add any specific questions? How would that change your score?

VFR Scenario 3

You really enjoy flying. You just totaled your current logbook page and you are so close to 100 hours. In fact, this flight will certainly push you past that milestone.

It is a beautiful, clear, and crisp winter day. Winds aloft are moving at 25 knots. Your flight is just a routine 83.4NM cross-country with an immediate return. The objective today is to complete the DAY/SOLO cross-country in the Syllabus.

During the preflight, you find yourself hurrying because you are shivering. All you brought was a sweatshirt. The cabin heat is nice once you level off.

Approximately 15 minutes into the flight, you notice the engine beginning to slightly sputter. It’s not long and occasionally became continuous, with an approximate 300–500 RPM reduction in available RPM.

You begin to think through the consequences of these issues and go back to your PAVE checklist.

1. Address the situation from the perspective of each letter in the PAVE checklist found in Chapter 3. What would you do? Hint: Does your aircraft checklist address this situation?

a.Pilot –

b.Aircraft –

c.environment –

d.External pressures –

 2. What do you suspect is the issue here?