Project Management and Critical Path Method under Uncertainty in Excel: A Lab Experience

Task:

All of the discussion so far regarding project management, critical path method is based upon deterministic data. This means we KNOW how long something will take or we KNOW how many resources are necessary. Have you ever managed a project when everything you estimated before the project is initiated turns out to be true/correct in the end?
This lab will give you experience with making project planning decisions under uncertainty of your estimates.  We will conduct this lab in Excel.
Instructions
You are beginning a facility for manufacturing a new product. To build the new facility, you will need to complete the following tasks:
Time estimates
Task ID    Task    Predecessor(s)    Most Optimistic    Most Likely    Worst Case Time
A    Obtain a building permit from county         3     15     36 
B    Dig foundation and pour footers    A     5     8     24 
C    Dig well for water    A     5     8     12 
D    Deliver framing and roofing materials    A     3     10     15 
E    Frame walls    B,D     10     15     22 
F    Install septic - sewer system    A    2     5     8 
G    Rough plumbing - connect water and sewer    E,C, and F     5     9     25 
H    Roof building    E    10     15     33 
I    Paint exterior    E     10      12    32 
J    Move in manufacturing equipment    I,H, and G    18     20     30 

Part I - 
Question 1: Provide an activity diagram, assuming the "Most Likely” time value and determine Critical Path for the same diagram?
Question 2: What would be the critical path and project completion time considering the optimistic values?
Question 3: Repeat Question 2 considering the worst-case values?  
Question 4: Repeat Question 2 considering the PERT-mean values?  
Question 5: Compare the results obtained in Questions 1-4.

PART II - 
Question 6; Determine the probability that project can be completed in 60 days, 70 days, 75 days, 80 days, and 85 days? 
Note: Use normal distribution with PERT-mean and PERT-std dev values.

PART III-
Question 7: Provide a 1000 iteration Monte-Carlo simulation in Excel. We will use the Normal Distribution with PERT-mean and PERT-std dev values.  Provide the Excel file in your submission. Copy and paste a screen shot of your Excel file Monte-Carlo simulation in the Word submission document. You do not need to provide the complete simulation in the Word document – just a screen shot of the first few rows of the model.
Question 8: Provide a histogram of expected total project completion time – use 5-day increments.   Copy and paste your histogram in your Word Document.  Comment in one or two sentences regarding the results.
Question 9:  Based upon your simulation results, what is the probability that the project will EXCEED the Critical Path provided in Questions 1, 2, 3 and 4 above. 
Question 10: Based upon your simulation results, identify potential critical paths along with their frequency (%occurrence). Which path is most likely to be the critical path? 
Question 11: Based upon your simulation results, identify the most critical activities? Determine their occurrence frequency. 
Note: An activity may be may be on more than one potential critical path. 
Question 12: Provide a one paragraph discussion of the appropriateness of this approach in your current or future role.
Submission Guidelines
As always, please submit one Word document. You should provide appropriate screen shots of the Excel file – copy and paste them into your single Word document to support your answers as appropriate. Please also submit your Excel file; but again, please copy and paste all appropriate information from your Excel file into the Word document.