Logic & Reason: Assignments on Reasoning & Falsification.

Logic and Reason: Assignments on Inductive Reasoning, Fallacy, and Falsification

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Assignment 1: The Promise and Perils of Inductive Reasoning (Discussion)

Shortly after 9/11 there was an interview with an FBI agent who said that had he been armed and on one of the planes he would not immediately have taken action. This sounds somewhat odd, but there was reasoned thought behind his statement. In the past hijackers had always wanted something—someone released from prison, or some amount of money, or sometimes just a statement to be released to the press; based on thirty years of experience with hijackers a doctrine had been very carefully developed and tested. First, get the plane on the ground by any means necessary. Second, once the plane was on the ground, continue negotiations and prepare an armed response (specially trained units were in place around the world); as a last resort, storm the plane and attempt to kill the hijackers and free the hostages. Honed over many years and taught to all aircrew, air traffic controllers, and others, these tactics had proven effective. However, on 9/11 all of this past knowledge—all of this inductive reasoning—was useless.

Craft a post (150-200 words) in which you critically examine a contemporary example of the use of inductive reasoning. In your critical examination, carefully review the example you have provided and summarize your conclusions: did the inductive method work well, or did it fail to resolve the problem at hand (and if so, say why).

A fallacy is a defective argument, where the reasons for a conclusion may sound compelling, but the justification is not present in the premises. We see this often in the media, in the news, commentary, and commercials. What was the last fallacy you encountered? What was the context? Be sure to identify the fallacy (review the required video) and specifically explain how the fallacy is evident in your example.

Craft a post (200-250 words) in which you critically examine your chosen fallacy. Name the fallacy you have identified and show us how it is evident in your example. Feel free to provide a link if you can.

In a famous and much discussed essay Anthony Flew applied the method of hypothesis falsification to the discussion of the existence of God. Could we, he asked, treat the hypothesis “God exists” as a meaningful one? His answer is “no” because those who believe in the existence of God would accept no evidence that would falsify such a belief; hence the hypothesis “God exists” is not a valid hypothesis.

Note: This VoiceThread activity asks you to create your own individual VoiceThread like a mini presentation.

First, craft a PowerPoint presentation (about 4-5 slides) that outlines and critically examines the argument made by Flew. Specifically, how does he demonstrate that no theist would ever accept any evidence that would falsify the hypothesis “God exists”? What is his key example and how does it work to support his conclusion? What critical response could be made to Flew’s argument?

Thinking is driven by questions. Throughout your discussion activities you will be expected to use Socratic questioning. Socratic questioning is a method that not only keeps the discussion moving but may provide healthy debate or even a little 'devil's advocate' questioning. As you participate in the discussion, strive to dig deep beneath the surface of the issue, topic, or problem at hand. Examine assumptions and perspectives posted by others. Certainly, if you don´t understand what has been said in the discussion, ask a question for clarity. This form of questioning is meant to push your thinking so please don´t ask questions only for questions sake.