Econometric Analysis Using R: A Research Report

Write a short research report of around 2000 to 2500 words (excluding tables, figures, references and appendices) in which you will introduce a research question, conduct an econometric analysis using R, present and discuss results, and provide recommendations for policymaking or investing (or any other recommendations relevant to the project). It is important you that you use one or some of the econometric techniques discussed during the module. 

You will be provided with a link to a number of data sources (though you may source your own data from elsewhere), and can pursue any research question you wish, as long as, you: (i) use one or more of the econometric approaches discussed in the module (ARIMA, VECM) (ii) you link your research question to relevant literature.  

Your report should contain the following sections: 
(i) Abstract, 
(ii) Introduction, 
(iii) Theory and Literature review, 
(iv) Data,
 (v) Econometric Model, 
(vi) Analysis and Discussion, 
(vii) Conclusion. 

The weighting for each section is given in the ‘Assessment Criteria’ section Remember that this project has two components: 
• Structuring a project: You should use the assessment criteria to guide your work and appropriately structure your project.  
• Performing data analysis: It is essential that you include techniques, approaches, and best-practice from the course this term.  

Presentation Requirements:  
• Your report should be clearly formatted with identifiable sections  
• You should include your (clean) R code as an appendix to your work (copied and pasted into word, not as an image)  
• Your report should focus on the analysis of the data, rather than a detailed narration of the process by which you analysed your data in R 
 
Assessment Criteria  
(i) Abstract and Introduction (10%) The abstract is a short summary of your report. It should also contain a summary of the main findings. It is usually about a third to half a page long (look at academic journal articles for a guide). In the introduction section you will introduce your topic, mentioning why it is interesting to be looking into this topic, and what is the aim of your research.

(ii) Theory and Literature Review (20%) Here you will present any relevant theories that relate the variables you intend to work with. You will also conduct a thorough review of the literature to get a good understanding about the empirical findings with regards to the variables and econometric model you will use. In other words, you will present findings from previous studies that are similar to the work.

A good review will present the findings in a critical manner (not just list them). For example, if possible, the work will present findings from a group of studies that make similar findings. It will then present findings from other studies whose findings are somewhat different. It will then have a discussion as why the findings may be different.

The literature review is also key to establishing expectations and/or hypotheses about what you might expect when you carry out your analysis.The information here can be used to justify the research question. You may want to highlight how your study differs from the studies you have included here.You should include summary statistics, distributions, etc., all properly formatted in tables.

 (iv) Econometric model (20%) Here you will present your model(s), discussing why you have chosen the model(s) and defining all the variables in your model (s). You will also discuss the estimation technique you have chosen to estimate your model. You may also wish to spell out any hypotheses you will be testing.  
Hypotheses should be informed by the literature you read; so if (for example you are looking at commodity prices) Smith (2003), Jones (2014), and Hardy (2017) all find a positive relationship between gold and oil prices, then it leads logically to your hypothesis being that there is a positive relationship, and you will test this. 

(v) Results and Discussion (35%) In this section you will present the results of your analysis. You should include results tables which feature a statement of your results and all relevant key statistics.  After presenting your results you should discuss notable findings, especially relating your discussion to the literature. For example, are your results consistent with the theories and the empirical work discussed in the literature review section? If not, why is this the case? What about your hypotheses?

(vi) Conclusion (5%) A brief summary of your work, highlighting your main findings and providing recommendations for policy making or investment decisions based on your findings. The marks in this section will mainly be allocated to your recommendations.