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Domino effect risk analysis: Domino effects is referred to a chain of accidents in which a primary accident starting in a unit spreads to adjacent units, causing secondary accidents the total consequence of which could be much more severe than the primary event.

Research Questions

Risk are one of the major threats that acts as a constraint for the project completion and hence, it is the most crucial need of the project to mitigate the threats. To attain the discussed measure, the project team adopts risk management which is a part of project management that aims to identify, assess and mitigate the threats of a particular project by adopting different project management tools and techniques [3]. Hence, the aim of the discussed paper is to discuss on the risk management of the Domino effect which is one of the major concerning factors for the project owners. The discussed threat is prominent because it is not a static threat and if not assessed & mitigated within time its kinetic nature can trigger several other events that in the process will trigger other chain events which may become constraint(s) for the project. Hence, Domino effect risk analysis refers to a chain of accidents which are initiated by a primary accident which spreads to adjacent units in the process giving birth to secondary accidents.

The overall consequence of the secondary accidents is more catastrophic than the primary and hence, the discussed threat to a project is dominant [4]. So, it becomes of key importance that the discussed threat be mitigated and the report in discussion aims to attain the same objective. The sections following have assessed ad presented an insight of the past works as part of the literature review. Followed by the research methodology along with implementation and the findings. The discussion over the findings have been done before summarizing the paper to conclude and provide an insight into the future work.

The primary question of the paper is to detail what is domino effect and how it occurs in a construction project? The secondary research question along with the primary questions has been listed below.

  1. What is domino effect and how it occurs in a construction project?
  2. Is the effect also applicable in other context other than the accidents?
  • What are the potential remedial measures to mitigate the effect?
  1. Can the concept of domino effect be used for the mitigating other threats in an engineering construction?

The primary research objective of the paper is to identify and assess the domino effect in context with the engineering construction projects. The secondary objectives along with the primary objective of the paper have been listed as follows:

  1. To gain an insight into the domino effect in context with the engineering construction projects.
  2. To identify the potential measures that are capable of mitigating the threat posed by Domino effect.
  • To identify whether or not the effect in discussion is applicable in other scenario.
  1. To implement the identified measures in case studies and assess the result.
  2. To identify whether or not the domino theory can be used in engineering construction works to mitigate other projects and in the process offer enhanced performance for the project.

Literature review over a topic or subject is doe to identify the current status of knowledge that is available on the. The identification of the current status of knowledge assist in identification of figures, facts, patterns and frameworks that assist in undertaking a research work [14]. Hence, the discussed section is aimed at establishing a theoretical background for domino effect in context with the engineering construction projects. The following sub-sections have offered an insight into different aspects that has been useful for the discussed work.

According to Hope (2015), domino effect as the name reflects that if one process of a project is suffering from an issue than its adjacent process will suffer eventually. Furthermore, emphasizes have been given on the fact that the effect of the primary failure may be comparatively less impactful that the secondary failures that are developed as a sub-process of the primary failure. The discussed threat is major because of the chain process as it does not limit to itself and further extends to adjacent operations [6]. It could be understood by the fact that if a project is delayed due to certain factor making delay as the primary failure than the adjacent process will also be impacted. The delay will lead to change in the project preceding approach and may increase the budget of the project. The delay will also cite pressure on the project team which will affect their performance adversely. The pressure on the project stakeholders will impact the ultimate outcome of the project which is one of the most undesirable situation. Similarly, multiple other challenges can be developed due to delaying of the project.

Objectives

Heinrich in the Domino theory have categorized the threat level in 5 categories and that starts with the social environment and ancestry [4]. The social environment and ancestry reflects on the traits such as recklessness, greed, temper and others that are developed due to the social factors and eventually lead to development of the next constraint for the construction work that is human flaw. The flaw of an individual can lead to project failure or hampering of the stakeholders. The discussed constraint or threat is very prominent because it is capable of affecting other stakeholders. Furthermore, it leads to the next constraints that is the unsafe acts or conditions that can be considered as a major and most prominent cause of accident. The fourth threat discussed by Heinrich is the accident itself which have been stated as unwanted and undesirable. The final category is the injury that reflects the consequence of the primary accident.

It should also be noted that the theory has been criticized because of not putting enough emphasizes on the role of management in case of an accident. Hence, several other studies need to be taken in account for attaining the objective of the paper.

According to Seton-Rogers (2012), the accidents in a construction industry cannot be limited to individual cause but can further extend to different factors. The discussed factors if assessed properly are capable of mitigating the threat of Domino effect. The factors in discussion are the project nature, construction method, site restriction, project term, procurement system, complexity of the design, construction level and sub-contracting flaws.

However, contradictory with the above factors, Gassebner, Gatson and Lamla (2011), in their paper have discussed different factors. The factors in discussion includes inadequate management, general causes (individual and job causes), intermediate factors (unsafe practices), sudden incidents, loss (people, properties and processes).

Hence, based on the factors identified above it would be adequate to state that the cause of an accident in a construction work cannot be limited to the role of individual or management but both of them needs to be accounted for [12]. The factors leading to an accident in a construction work will start with project nature and construction method that will be succeeded by the inadequate management. The inadequate management will lead to the social environment and ancestry which further will lead to intermediate factors and sudden incidents. The previously discussed factors will lead to challenges and accidents.

The identification from the reviewed papers will assist in understanding the cause of accidents at an engineering construction work. However, it should be noted that the accidents are not the only risk that needs to be managed in a construction work. Hence, the review in the following section have discussed about similar risks.

Engineering construction works are one of the most complex projects and inappropriate assessment of the risks makes it vulnerable to different accidents. Dust explosion occurs when any dispersed combustible things are present at high concentration in oxidizing gaseous medium or atmosphere. In other words, the discussed explosion occurs when combustible dust is gathered at a high pressure within an oxidizing medium.

Literature Review

The combustible dust can extend from wood to metals such as bronze, aluminum, magnesium, zinc and others [10]. Pesticides, chemical dust of coal, Sulphur and others are also included in the category. Hence, it would be adequate to state that sufficient amount of combustible dust is present at a construction site. The discussed risk is also associated with the domino effect. It will initiate with human error leading to inadequate storage and maintenance or management of dust which may get exposed to oxidizing medium and eventually leading to explosion. Pipeline, tunnel works and other similar construction projects which are undertaken at a highly combustible environment are mostly exposed to this impact of the domino effect [11].

The general project management of the construction works are also exposed too domino effect. It could be understood by the fact that if a project is delayed due to certain factor making delay as the primary failure than the adjacent process will also be impacted. The delay will lead to change in the project preceding approach and may increase the budget of the project. The delay will also cite pressure on the project team which will affect their performance adversely. The pressure on the project stakeholders will impact the ultimate outcome of the project which is one of the most undesirable situation.

Conclusion

Hence, the review of the literature could be summarized to state that the domino effect is an extensive threat for an engineering construction works that can extend from the human injury to project failure. An insight into the domino effect have also been gained through the discussion. Dust explosion and other threats are also relevant to the domino effect. Different factors that enable a domino effect has also been identified and based on the findings the summary of the factors has been deduced which have been summarized to discuss the most crucial factors. So, overall the review of the literary work could be summarized to state that domino effect is a crucial threat that needs to be considered as the part of the risk management plan.

Outline

The philosophy selected for the discussed research work is the positivism philosophy while the approach selected is deductive in nature. The sources for the data collection will be the secondary sources. The secondary sources consist of the reliable internet sources such as newspaper websites, organisation websites (well-established organizations), government publications and other reliable internet sources along with scholarly articles. The analysis of the collected data has been done through thematic analysis and critical thinking. To maintain the ethical value of the paper appropriate ethical considerations have been taken into consideration by citing appropriate sources and avoiding data manipulation along with maintaining an unbiased approach.

Positivism and interpretivism are the most basic forms of research approach. Interpretivism emphasizes on in-depth analysis and believes that no observation can be done without effecting the subject. However, as the sources of data for the discussed task is secondary and the discussion was not affect the subject even after different problem solving methodologies has been implemented making positivism suitable for the paper. Positivism philosophy believes that a subject can be assessed without affecting the subject [7]. Furthermore, the close ended approach adopted by the positivism research philosophy makes it suitable for the discussed work because a limited number of problem solving methodologies has been implemented and assessed as part of the discussion.  

Domino Effect

The research design selected for the discussed paper is descriptive. The reason for selection of the discussed design could be justified by the fact that the aim of the paper is to describe domino effect in engineering construction work and does not aim to offer remedial solutions [9]. The paper will implement and discuss different problem solving methodology for domino effect.

The data for the discussed research work have been collected through secondary sources. The internet was the most prominent source of secondary data from where different journals articles, newspaper& magazine websites and other reliable sources. The data collected from the discussed sources have been cited properly to maintain the ethical aspect of the research work. Secondary data have been considered as part of the data collection because the topic of discussion have been assessed several times in the literary work, in the process making collection of data and assessment on finding readily simple and reliable. Furthermore, the aim of the paper is to gain an insight into the domino effect its implementation and its problem solving which is greatly supported by the real-life instances that have happened in past [14]. Additionally, the secondary data offers opportunity for assessing a large database that is applicable in a generalized sense and could not be limited to a geographical domain. So, the above statements could be taken into consideration to justify the selection of the secondary data.

The data collected for the discussed paper is secondary in nature and hence secondary data analysis has been considered as part of the data analysis. The secondary data analysis has been done through theoretical analysis and critical thinking [15]. The theoretical data analysis is done to identify themes, facts, patterns and frameworks from the secondary sources while the critical thinking has been used for the comparing and contrasting the findings to answer the research questions and pursue the research objectives.

Secondary data based research are not exposed to many ethical violations or threats. However, data manipulation and biasness are the ethical concerns that needs to mitigated so that the research findings are viable and reliable [15]. Hence, the paper in discussion have taken adequate measures to avoid data manipulation and have even ensured that the research is done with an unbiased attitude. Furthermore, to avoid the data theft, the paper has referenced and cited the sources from where the data has been taken and in the process maintained the ethical aspects of the research work.

The data for the discussed paper have been collected from the internet and as all the sources available online are not free so the collection of data have been limited to an extent. Moreover, as the data is secondary in nature and hence, the disruptive researches that have been assessed on the domino effect may not have been part of the research work.

The discussed section is dedicated to implementing the problem solving methodologies into case studies and identify the result from the implementation. To attain the objective two case studies will be selected one is in general terms while the other is construction accident. To assess the domino effect in general term the case study of Ansett Australia’s failure impact on the Traveland franchisee has been taken into account.

Causes for Accident in Engineering Construction Work

The Ansett Airlines of Australia was operational for a very long period of 66 years before being placed in liquidation in the year 2002. The airlines firm was one of the most prominent leaders in the market who were offering both domestic and international flight. The firm even was the official carrier of the Olympians of the 2000 Sydney Olympics [2]. However, operational shortcoming and competitive market ultimately lead to demise of the firm. However, the airline was not the only one to fail but started a chain of accident that lead to failure of Traveland one of the 45 subsidiaries of the firm.

Traveland was a travel agency that had a successful run for 33 years and owned around 250 franchised units. The firm was one of the most respected ones and the failure of the firm was not the fault of the organizational employee or the franchisees but rather some other factor [2]. The following section have detailed the domino effect and how it leads to the demise of the Traveland because of the Ansett’s failure.

Ansett was the most successful unit of the franchise and when its operational flaws and the competitive market lead the second largest airline to fall into financial crisis it had its impact on other units. Traveland was also one of the units that suffered due to the Ansett financial crisis. The crisis of Ansett started a domino effect that lead to the failure of Traveland. The primary incident was the financial crisis of the Ansett which gave birth to a financial shortcoming at the Traveland because the owners were attempting to cope up with the financial challenge of Ansett. The shortcoming of the financial assets at the Traveland lead to delayed payment of the Traveland employee. It led to the firm owing over $ 7.9 million to the employee [2]. This developed a dispute among the management and the employee ultimately leading to a strike. It led to the selling of the Traveland to the Internova Travel and after torturous shuffling it finally ended up with Financial Options Group Inc before collapsing.

So, it is evident from the discussion that the financial collapse of the Ansett gave birth to multiple events that was completed by collapsing of Traveland. Hence, it is evident that the domino effect lead to demise of the Traveland.

The collapsing of the Traveland could have been mitigated by disrupting the domino effect. The domino effect could have been mitigated by omitting one of the incidents that form the chain of events leading to a major consequence [1]. The incidents that could have been avoided was investing Traveland’s financial asset in the troubled Ansett. It was the central incident that lead to the collapsing of a successfully operational Traveland. The removing of the central incident in the domino effect is the most prominent method of avoiding any major challenge from development.

The primary motive of Heinrich for the development of the domino theory was to explain and assess the threat of accident at a construction site. Hence, the basic theory was explained in 5 steps or dominos that together formulated the domino effect 12]. The categories start with social environment and ancestry. The social environment and ancestry reflects on the traits such as recklessness, greed, temper and others that are developed due to the social factors and eventually lead to development of the next constraint for the construction work that is human flaw.

Risk in Engineering Construction

The flaw of an individual can lead to project failure or hampering of the stakeholders. The discussed constraint or threat is very prominent because it is capable of affecting other stakeholders. Furthermore, it leads to the next constraints that is the unsafe acts or conditions which can be considered as a major and most prominent cause of accident [13]. The fourth threat discussed by Heinrich is the accident itself which have been stated as unwanted and undesirable. The final category is the injury which reflects the consequence of the primary accident.

The primary event that leads to the injury of an individual at a construction site is the social environment and ancestry. The primary events give birth to human flaw which is supported by the unsafe acts and unsafe conditions [12]. This lead to accident and finally to injury. The domino effect in the discussed scenario is prominent because it can be harmful for a human.

The discussed domino effect has been assessed many times and could be mitigated readily by adopting a simple practice. The practice involves maintaining a safe and secure condition at the work [10]. It will mitigate the central domino and in the process mitigate the domino effect.

The discussions above have offered prominent advantage in understanding the domino effect and could be summarized to emphasize on the research objectives and they have been discussed as follows.

  1. To gain an insight into the domino effect in context with the engineering construction projects.

Domino effect is referring to a chain of events that occurs due to a primary incident and the secondary events cite more inadequate impact on the project than the primary event.

  1. To identify the potential measures that are capable of mitigating the threat posed by Domino effect.

The potential measure to mitigate a domino effect is to omit the central domino. Omission of the central domino will break the domino sequence and will prevent the events that might cite some major adverse impact. Risk management strategies can also be used for mitigating the primary event that leads to development of secondary events.

  • To identify whether or not the effect in discussion is applicable in other scenario.

The domino effect as evident from the Ansett Traveland case is applicable on other aspects of the firm. It is applicable in project management, general operations and other aspects also. Hence, it is crucial to mitigate the threat by adopting adequate risk management system.

  1. To implement the identified measures in case studies and assess the result.

The case studies selected for the work were Ansett Traveland and general construction work. Both the case studies have been discussed and risk management approach have been assessed in the above section. The findings revealed that the risks were mitigated and the final outcome could have been adverse.

  1. To identify whether or not the domino theory can be used in engineering construction works to mitigate other projects and in the process offer enhanced performance for the project.

The domino effect according to Hope (2015), could be used in project management techniques [5]. It can be used for assessing a step by step proceeding of the project development where the first domino will refer to the planning and the final domino will be the project offering.

Conclusion

The report in discussion have offered an insight into the domino effect and how important it is to mitigate the threat with proper risk management. The case studies of Ansett Traveland and a general construction work have been assessed to conclude on the findings. The findings have revealed that the omitting the central domino is the simplest and arguably the most prominent method to mitigate the threat of domino effect. The research work has also discussed different aspects of the domino effect and the findings have revealed certain aspects that are crucial for future works.

The findings that reveal that domino effect can be used in project management is very brief and could be assessed in future to conclude on a framework. Furthermore, more scenarios where domino effect are applicable are deemed to be identified so that it can be mitigated with accuracy.

References

  • Sakiz, "Airlines and risk management with financial ratios: Turk?sh Airlines case study", Pressacademia, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 96-103, 2017.
  • Buchan and L. Frazer, "The Domino Effect: How Ansett Airlines' Failure Impacted on Traveland Franchisees", SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006.
  • Khakzad, F. Khan, P. Amyotte and V. Cozzani, "Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks", Risk Analysis, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 292-306, 2012.
  • Khakzad, F. Khan, P. Amyotte and V. Cozzani, "Risk Management of Domino Effects Considering Dynamic Consequence Analysis", Risk Analysis, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 1128-1138, 2013.
  • Gassebner, N. Gaston and M. Lamla, "THE INVERSE DOMINO EFFECT: ARE ECONOMIC REFORMS CONTAGIOUS?*", International Economic Review, vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 183-200, 2011.
  • Xu, "Convolutive Blind Separation Using Domino Effect Relevance Ranking", Advanced Materials Research, vol. 774-776, pp. 1699-1702, 2013.
  • Lehman, "Interpretivism, postmodernism and nature: Ecological conversations", Philosophy & Social Criticism, vol. 37, no. 7, pp. 795-821, 2011.
  • Nomen, J. Sempere and V. Mariotti, "QRA Including Domino Effect as a Tool for Engineering Design", Procedia Engineering, vol. 84, pp. 23-32, 2014.
  • Omair, "Selecting the appropriate study design for your research: Descriptive study designs", Journal of Health Specialties, vol. 3, no. 3, p. 153, 2015.
  • Ellinas, "The Domino Effect: An Empirical Exposition of Systemic Risk Across Project Networks", Production and Operations Management, 2018.
  • Mohanty, "Central Plasticity in Brachial Plexus Injury: A Neural Domino Effect", World Neurosurgery, vol. 86, pp. 22-24, 2016.
  • Hope, "Domino effect", Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 300-300, 2015.
  • Seton-Rogers, "Domino effect", Nature Reviews Cancer, vol. 12, no. 8, pp. 506-506, 2012.
  • Wiese, "A literature review of Happiness and Economics and guide to needed research", Competitio, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 117-131, 2014.
  • Wani, "From 4Ps to SAVE: A Theoritical Analysis of Various Marketing Mix Models", SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013.
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