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The aim of this assessment is to provide students an opportunity to use various tourism analysis techniques to critically examine a series of future scennarios for a tourism sector or type of tourism.
1. Choose a specific type of tourism (eg. cultural tourism, Backpackers, Adventure tourism) that is of interest to you:
2. Use various techniques (Steep or Pest Analysis , Explorative or Predictive) to analysis this sector.
3. Devlop 3 medium range future scenarios:
4. Critically assess each of these scenarios in terms of the responses necessary from various stakeholders to ensure the sustainability of this type of tourism.





Tour and travel is one of the most booming industries currently. With increase in foreign exchange along with the other major sources of income is creating positive response among the countries. However, growth of tourism is also been one of the major problems for cultural and biological threats for the existing diversity. Eco-tourism is one of the growing niche markets within the tour and travel sectors (Staiff , Kennedy & Bushell, 1999).  Eco-tourism promoted the sustainability and spending billions of dollars advantages for the countries.


Market research shows that, eco-tourist are very much interested particularly interested  in the proper planning and management for the existing flora and fauna along with conserving the culture and traditions  who are on verge of extinctions.  The study will focus on the current trend in the eco-tourism and various scenarios along with existing challenges faced by the eco tourism companies (Sheppard, 1999).  Apart from that, the study will also focus on the various stakeholders of eco tourism and sustainability measures taken by the government and companies to maintain in the end.

Current trend in Eco-Tourism


                                                                                        Figure 1: SWOT on Eco-Tourism industry

                                                                                            (Source: Ross & Wall, 1999, pp-128)


PEST analysis on Eco Tourism




Apart from the above, ROC (Respect our culture programme) has been developed in order to protect the culture and traditions of the nations. Along with that Climate action certifications programme is been dedicated to ranking the efforts to reduce the energy usage.  Currently, most of the tourist are looking to visits via eco tourism in order to associates themselves with the healthy living environment (Van Schooten , 2005),. This is one of the social trends, which is continuously developing across the Globe specifically in UK, USA, Australia and other EU nations.  The future social trend of the eco tourism suggest that, with more than 80% of the world population will be looking to go with eco tourism because  it will be affordable for everyone (Ross & Wall, 1999). 


Technological advancement like Go Green with recyclable products are been one of the most influential products are been made by the companies. Most of the retail companies like Woolworth and Tesco are selling organic food products, recyclable clothes and the bag packs for the tourist and locales. Apart from that, most of the eco tour and travel companies are using internet and E-feedback system to avoid the paper work (Sheppard, 1999). With rising in demand of the recyclable and eco friendly developed in less than years the companies will be manufacturing   only these types of technology which is environment friendly. 


The economic condition of world is very much fluctuating because of the economic downturn in 2008 has been one of the major reasons.    Eco tourism industry is supports nearly protect the parks  and other environmental assets  to underpin  the diversity and quality of visitor  experiences (Baer  & Singer, 2009) . The geo tourism form has been within the eco tourism Australia, which supports the awareness, builds closer relationship with tour operators reading the geo parks, national landscapes and protected areas. Since 2008, eco tourism Australia has been designed programme called Aboriginal tourism Australia (ATA).  As the Australian high commission has also announced to develop more of eco tourism by giving the existing eco tourism companies tax, waive off 3.97% on their taxable income in coming years (Doucet, 2007).


Environmental regulations are been reformed by the most of the nation are being one of the major changes which would be made in coming years. As the environmental law plays very much significant law to in order to protect the bio diversity and create responsibility among the tour operator and the travellers.  The ECO certifications programme is world first and has been developed to address the need of identify the genuine operators in Australia (Dow & Downing, 2006).  ECO certifications have certain standard and are back by the bets practices ecological sustainability of the natural environment and the quality of eco tourism experiences. The Eco guide certification programme was launch in 2000 in Australia that endorses authentic environmental responsible eco tourism experience.  


Political condition of the country is very much stable.  The EU is looking to improve the training and other facilities. The law of eco-tourism is much needed to meet by the every tour and travel company (Dressler, 2006). However, government has sanctioned a loan of new motor way and airport around EU and Australia to create sustainability for eco-tourism.  As with rise of consciousness of ecology, it is found that government is going is to spend more in eco tourism within 5-10 years.


Current view: Trend of Eco-tourism industry


Total leisure visitors from Australia

Total spending (in million $)





























120, 000



                                                                               Graph 1: Trend of Eco-tourism industry in Australia

                                                                                            (Source: Flannery,  2005, pp-128) 

Three medium ranges of future scenarios


Future scenarios

For 5 years (2014-2019)

Increase the media exposure  and ethical code of conduct to natural resources  around the world

For 10 years (2014-2024)

Desire to move to novel destinations sometime as out do others for instance first person  to visit the Arctic

For 25 years (2014 onwards)

Easier to access to remote eco tourism destinations  via development  of air routes and roads and other infrastructures

Description of scenarios

Scenario 1: Ethical and politics of defining eco-tourism

Over the past century, there has been eco tourism has grown where several authorities is widely considered the fastest growing sub component of tourism.  In spite of the eco tourism growth , the research suggest that  lack of  training and funds are being one of the major reason for the problems of failure of various eco tourism planning since 2000. The main objective of the study is identifying the potentiality of eco tourism (Gore, 2006). The tourist arrivals to Australia and EU during the year 2009 amounted to about 2 billion, which shows that increase by 2.1% in compare to previous years. One of the major issues is lack of code of conduct followed by the Eco tourism tour operator in order to enhance the comfort zone.


Political parties are playing their card by taking the Eco-tourism as their major objective is for winning speech in the global platform.   The politician’s uses name of ecology in order to creates strong impression in the mind of the people worldwide (www.ijhssnet.com,  2015).

With the help of common demographics and number of visitors shows the trend in the ethics in the eco tourism. Eco tourism companies are been summoned norms of code of conduct during the touring the guide is very much helpful for the tourist and guide operators (Bender & Knutson, 2010). The definitions given by the eco-tourism is very much helpful  in assessing the that the  given definitions is very much narrow and lack of agreed with existing society.   One of the major stakeholder within the ethics and policy debate are travellers, tour operators companies and guide, politicians, and   the law (www.uhu.es, 2015). These are all are the major stakeholders   within ethical and political debate over the reforms of the policy of eco tourism. 


                                                           Figure 1: Stakeholder mapping on Ethical code of conduct on the Eco tourism

                                                                                           (Source: Honey, 2008, pp-285) 

The role of eco tourism is very much specifies the rules and norms like projecting the wildlife, preserving the habitat, cultivating the habit of listening rather than only seeing, and shopping also meant to bargain but also feel that wages paid  to the people are lower etc(Orams, 1995).   During the time  of de politicizations speaks about the approaches which has ensured   within the eco tourism  that is currently is not enough for their sustainability.  With the rise in the economic pressures by the politicians  of the nations and countries are  funding  the sustainability programme.   As ethical tourism in eco tourism is been one of the just added code conduct which are been asked to formulate to the tour operators which has been missing from the eco tourism concept.  

One of the major dividing forces for the persuasion of eco tourism is politics and ethics. The general people of the Australia , UK and EU are being trying to promote the green tourism which is to follow the eco tourism  seriously which has been ruling the  out the right of  full employment .

The political condition is very much in favour of the eco tourism (Sheppard, 1999). However, increasing inflations and other major dividing forced like poor ethical code of conduct, which has yet to reform, by the EU are some that is decreasing the potential changes within the eco-tourism.


Scenario 2: Twenty years on: The stage of contemporary eco-tourism research

The coming age development of eco tourism describes the major purpose of review  to determine  to what extents  such  thought process is justified.  The nature of eco tourism indicates the value based benefits such as conservations, ethics, sustainability and education  are some of the major  benefit  which offers prominent way of preaching the eco tourisms (Orams, 1995).  The eco tourism  satisfied the  3 core criteria’s  attraction must be based on the nature , visitors  must be able to focus on the learning  or educating  on these attractions  and experience the product management  should also follow the  principles and practices  associated with ecological socio-culture and economic sustainability (www98.griffith.edu.au, 2015).

Each of these criteria   give ample evidence for interesting the ongoing the mode of  eco-tourism.   The industry shows that, eco tourism is been mainly costs if the private sector business that provide services to the eco tourist.  However, with the failure of the rate of SME specialised eco tourism business and the factors of high attrition rate is one of the major issues that has been one of the major problems within the industry (Staiff, Kennedy & Bushell, 1999).  An emerging issues within which has been pertinent within the geographic segmentation is the recognitions of non-tradition; eco tourist markets specifically in Asia and Australia.  

                                    Figure 3: Perceptual grid for the importance of factors affecting the eco tourisms

                                                               (Source: Dow & Downing, 2006, pp-298) 

The failure of the small eco tourism in the future because of the lack of quality places and promise which has not be able to fulfilled by these companies.  Some of the eco tourist companies in Australia has been able to mould themselves with the changing times and those who cannot are not able to sustain in the long run (www.uhu.es, 2015). After 20 years those companies are who are associated with the ecological balance will  be able to sustain  in the long run.

Segmentation bases


Target customers segment of Fast food industry  



Asia, North America, Europe and Australia



Rural and Urban (102 million)



15-45 age category



Male, females and others



High ,Low and middle income groups



Employees and professionals


Social status

Working class, lower middle class, middle class and higher class


Family size

Single, nuclear, joint family



Traditional and moderns



Regular  and other Festive seasons



Price advantages and diversify the products



festive season and Promotions

Scenario 3: Eco-Tourism: Changes, Impacts and Opportunities

The Eco tourism  is been change is desired by the most of players involved in eco tourism many of them who are looking to  identify the improvement within the existing situations. One of the major challenges  that  has been faced   to measure the impacts of tourism is difficulty in the establishing the base level against the changing demand  (Ramsar Centre, 1995).  Another major activities are diversity  of activities  and tourism has not been up to the mark.

Apart from that paper also suggest that,  tour operators and the visitors are being banned to use  photo inside the cultural heritage in order to  make the attraction of tourist places. Cost benefit analysis is been one of the major job which is needed to be impact on the eco tourism industry.  The observations also suggest that, global evaluations of benefits and costs (Bender & Knutson, 2010).  In order to  specify the trade offs  and comprise of decision made in the formal manner in order to full fill the demand of the changing  needed of the customers. One of the major opportunists which has been suggested is that, extensive issue of advertisement like FMCG products would create supportive awareness and impact within the mind of the travellers. As the tour operators have been looking create guidance norms to the every traveller during the visit will also able to solve the problems of the new rules followed by every traveller during their visiting.  

                                                           Figure 3: Perceptual grid for the importance of factors affecting the eco tourisms

                                                                                       (Source: Dow & Downing, 2006, pp-298)

Critical analysis the scenarios

Scenario 1: Ethical and politics of defining eco-tourism

The above scenarios is very munch explain that , future of the eco tourism is total dependent upon the  political situation of the country and the ethical code of conduct which is very right (Dressler, 2006) . Ethical code of conduct is very much helps the guidance to the norms, which is needed to follow strictly by the travellers during the time of the travelling.  However, totally dependent upon the politician and ethical code of conduct will not full fill the future of eco tourism. 


Scenario 2: Twenty years on: The stage of contemporary eco-tourism research

The scenario two explains that, twenty years eco tourism industry will be changed and the market segment will higher for them. However, the company who are working with low quality of eco tourism services will not be able to sustain in the end in the business because of the changing demand of customer and frequent changing environmental norms as per the EU (Flannery,  2005).

Scenario3: Eco-Tourism: Changes, Impacts and Opportunities

From the above discussion, it has been found that, with changing times, eco tourism is also been changing. The change is also being the opportunities and threats for the existing the nature. With the rise in the ECO tourism certification is making the tough to survive the existing SME. Apart from that, one of the major opportunities will be founding in future would be remote areas for new places (Gore, 2006).

Conclusion and recommendations

From the above, it has been observe that, Eco-tourism is small but its rapidly growing industry.  Eco tourism is primarily a decreasing its nature of tourism in the market place. Some of the companies and countries has several norms and polices and other do not have which is making the confusions.  One of the best methods of eco tourism is to maintain the sustainability and making norms for the betterment of the environment. Other major recommendations would be managing the operation via great method for instance not suing the paper and less of electricity.

Eco tourism is highly dependent upon the unique idea and creative approaches, which rarely carried it another format of tourism industry. By using sustainability tourism and ethical code of conduct, eco tourism will be able to achieve their goals.  


Reference list


Baer, H. & Singer, M. (2009) Global Warming and the Political Ecology of Health, Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, California.

Doucet, C. (2007) Urban Meltdown: Cities, Climate Change and Politics as Usual, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island BC.

Dow, K. & Downing, T. (2006) The Atlas of Climate Change: Mapping the World’s Greatest Challenge, University of California Press, Berkeley.

Dressler, A. (2006) The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to the Debate, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Flannery, T. (2005) The Weather Makers: How Man is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth, Atlantic Monthly Press NY.

Gore, A. (2006) An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It, Rodale Press, Emmaus PA.


Bender, M.A. & Knutson, T.R. (2010), Modelled Impact of Anthropogenic Warning on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science Publications (327), pp 454- 458.

Honey, M. (2008), Ecotourism and Sustainable Development. Who Owns Paradise? (Second) Island Press, Washington DC.

Maria Graziabellio & IWMI, (2004), “Why Development Drainage can Compromise Water Quality”, Water Matters, International Water Management Institute, Issue3, pp5.

Mathews, N. (2000), “Travel and Tourism Intelligence”, Sri Lanka Country Reports, No. 1, 2000: pp 79-105.

Orams, M.B. (1995), “towards a more Sustainable form of Tourism”, TourismManagement, Vol. 16 pp 3-8.

Ramsar Centre, Japan (1995), Public Awareness of Biodiversity in Wetlands in Asia. Bangkok, Thailand: Dharmasarn Co., Ltd.

Van Schooten (2005), “Wise Use of Wetlands: Exploration on the Development of Sustainable Tourism”, The Netherland: The Wetland group

Ross, S. & Wall, G. (1999) Ecotourism: towards congruence between theory and practice. Tourism Management 20, pp123 – 132.

Sheppard, D. (1999) Nature based tourism and protected areas. Paper presented to the Mediterranean Protected Areas: status, adequacy, management and training needs workshop, Cilento, Italy 4-7 Nov 1999.

Staiff, R., Kennedy, P. & Bushell, R. (1999) From Museums to Parks: an Interpretative Leap, Paper presented to the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management, August, Brisane


www.ijhssnet.com/,. (2015). The Ethics and Politics of Defining Ecotourism. Retrieved 20 January 2015, from https://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol._1_No._8;_July_2011/2.pdf

www.uhu.es,. (2015). Ecotourism: Change, Impacts, and Opportunities. Retrieved 20 January 2015, from https://www.uhu.es/pablo.hidalgo/docencia/effects/AADD/99wall.pdf

www98.griffith.edu.au,. (2015). TWENTY YEARS ON: THE STATE OF CONTEMPORARY ECOTOURISM RESEARCH. Retrieved 20 January 2015, from https://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/26545/51660_1.pdf?sequence=1


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