Analysis Of QAN And AMP Stock Performance

In a normal yield curve, a short term debt’s yield curve has lower yield than a long term debt instrument. Due to it, the yield curve of the company gets an upward slope. It is the most common yield curve shape and it is referred as “positive yield curve”. The yield curve differs like this because of the fact that investors expect higher return from the instruments which are offering higher risk to the investors.

The higher yield compensate the higher risk of the investors and due to it, it is the normal yield curve (Diebold, Rudebusch and Aruoba, 2006). The normal shape of yield refers the expected shift in yields due to the extension in the maturity date in time in the debt instruments.

According to the below drawn shape, it has been found that the short term debt’s yield curve has lower yield than long term debt instrument. Due to it, the yield curve of the debt instrument gets an upward slope. The yield curve explains that the investors expect higher return from the instruments which are offering higher risk to the investors. The higher yield normally compensates the higher risk of the investors and it leads to the normal yield curve. The yield curve explains that the performance of the Australian economy would be improved as the total return would also be increased.   

Expectations theory explains that the forward rates exclusively explain the expected future rates. The entire term structure of bond explains the expectation of market in terms of future short term rates. Such as, an increasing slope of term structure explains about increment in the short term rates.

The below given rates also differ that the expected interest rate of the term structure is higher than the actual interest rate of the business. It explains that the expectation of the market is higher in the future. This validates the expectations theory (Brandt and Kavajecz, 2004). The expectations theory could not be hold because of the fact that the money’s value couldn’t be same in near future and thus the investors demand for the return accordingly. As well as the investor invest into the market to get higher return which is not hold in the expectation theory.  

The spread between Australian Government Bonds and NSW Treasury bonds is lower. However, these changes brief that the performance of NSW treasury bonds are better than the Australian government bonds (Gürkaynak, Sack and Wright, 2007).

On the basis of the below give figure 5, it has been observed that the stock price of QAN was lower than stock price of AMP at initial stage but after March, 2017, the stock price of QAN has been higher. It briefly explains that the performance of QAN is much better as the curve is going upward whereas the graph of AMP describe about the downward situation of the company.

On the basis of the above data, it has been found that the overall performance of AMP is better in terms of stock price. The fluctuations in the stock price of AMP are also lower than the stock prices of QAN.

Calculation of beta:

On the basis of the above table in part c, it has been measured that the beta of QAN is 1.172 and the beta of AMP is 0.610. The Qantas has higher beta which represents that the volatility in the stock of Qantas is higher than volatility in the index stock price. Further, the AMP has lower beta than 1 which represents that the volatility in the stock of AMP is lower than the volatility in the index stock price (Bello, 2005). 

It represents that the stock price of both the company is underpriced as the market price of both the stocks are lower than the actual stock price of the stocks.  

The report focuses on the past and future performance of QAN stock and AMP stock.

On the basis of the evaluation on the stock price of QAN and AMP, it has been recognized that earlier the stock performance of AMP was better. But along with the time, the performance of QAN has been better (Goetzmann and Kumar, 2008). The share price evaluation explains that the performance of QAN is much better as the curve is going upward whereas the graph of AMP describe about the downward situation of the company in current scenario.

If the average price of both the company is considered than the performance of AMP is higher. The report briefs few internal changes have affected the stock price of AMP which has been revoked due to which the stock price has been improved again. On the basis of overall evaluation, the future prospects of both the companies are good but the performance of Qantas would be better (Guiso and Jappelli, 2008).

On the basis of the report, it has been found that the overall performance of both the company has been changed. The QAN stock price performance explains about higher changes than the AMP stock price and thus the future prospect of QAN stock is better. However, the future prospects of both the company shows about positive changes as the returns of both the companies are positive as well as dividends attract the investors to invest more in the company which will lead to the higher stock price and better future of the company. 

Bello, Z. Y. 2005. Socially responsible investing and portfolio diversification. Journal of Financial Research, 28(1), 41-57.

Brandt, M.W. and Kavajecz, K.A., 2004. Price discovery in the US Treasury market: The impact of orderflow and liquidity on the yield curve. The Journal of Finance, 59(6), pp.2623-2654.

Diebold, F.X., Rudebusch, G.D. and Aruoba, S.B., 2006. The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach. Journal of econometrics, 131(1), pp.309-338.

Goetzmann, W. N., and Kumar, A. 2008. Equity portfolio diversification. Review of Finance, 12(3), 433-463.

Guiso, L., and Jappelli, T. 2008. Financial literacy and portfolio diversification. CAGE publications.

Gürkaynak, R.S., Sack, B. and Wright, J.H., 2007. The US Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present. Journal of monetary Economics, 54(8), pp.2291-2304.