Projected Profit and Cash Flow for Canadian Ice Wine Business

Question:

1.Provide details of all customers you expect to sell to over the forecast period, and how much you expect to sell to each.

2.Give market research data that support or verify these forecasts. This is particularly important for ventures in the retail field, for example, when names of customers are not necessarily known in advance.

3.Prepare a sales forecast by value and volume for each major product group (eg for a hotel: bedrooms, restaurant, off-licence) throughout the whole period of the business plan – eg up to five years (monthly for years 1 and 2 and quarterly thereafter).

4.Support your forecast with examples from other similar ventures started recently, and drawing from company accounts and other sources.

Answer:

1: Currently there are sales orders from the firm in hand but it is expected that soon there be bull order from nearby firms who organizes parties at multiples venue located in near locality.

2: The target customers are people living in nearby region, tourists, and customers who provide online orders.

Expected Sales to each category of people
Type of Customers		Number of units sold	Frequency
	Tinhorn Creek Icewine	Reif Estate Riesling Icewine
Customers in nearby region	1000	1000	Per month
Online orders	1500	1500	Per month
Tourists	750	750	Per month

The growing demand of ice wine in the Canadian market is providing motivational factor for the manufactures to make it popular across the world. Canada is having large production of ice wine and thus it can utilize its competency to boost its economic growth and development. As such, the market of Thailand seems to have good potential for ice wine manufacturers and they can seek to gain expansion in the respective market. This is because exports growth in the market of Thailand has increased by 5.2% in the year 2017 and thus there seems to be a large potential in the country for Canadian ice wine to be exported. Also, the manufactures can easily do a partnership with local gent for distributing ice wine in Thailand as it is the most effective way for entering into Thai market. Thus, the sales forecast of ice wine in the potential market of Thailand is predicted to be good (Consumer and Market Insights: Wine in Thailand, 2016).

Assumptions:

Major Products Sold by the Canadian Ice Wine are Tinhorn Creek Vineyards Kerner Icewine Oldfield Series (Sales Price: 29.99$) and Reif Estate Riesling Icewine (Sales Price: 29.95) (Maclean, N. (2018).
It is expected sales volume in each category of product will rise by 5 % each month in year 1 and 2.5% in each month in year 2 and 5% each quarter in year 3 to year 5.
There is no increase in sales price over five years
Variable cost is expected to remain 55% of the actual sales in year 1 and 50% in year 2 and thereafter.
Fixed Cost every month is expected to cost $80000 in year 1 and year 2 and $ 125000 in year 3 to 5.
Tax rate to be remain at 35% (Lumby & Jones, 2007)

Projected Profit and Loss Statement for year 1
Particulars	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Sales Volume
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	3250	3413	3583	3762	3950	4148	4355	4573	4802	5042	5294	5559
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	3250	3413	3583	3762	3950	4148	4355	4573	4802	5042	5294	5559
Unit Price
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95
Sales By Value
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	97468	102341	107458	112831	118472	124396	130616	137147	144004	151204	158764	166703
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	97338	102204	107315	112680	118314	124230	130442	136964	143812	151002	158553	166480
Total Sales	194805	204545	214773	225511	236787	248626	261057	274110	287816	302206	317317	333183
Less: Variable Cost	107143	112500	118125	124031	130233	136744	143582	150761	158299	166214	174524	183250
Gross Profit	87662	92045	96648	101480	106554	111882	117476	123350	129517	135993	142793	149932
Fixed Cost	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000
Profit Before Tax	7662	12045	16648	21480	26554	31882	37476	43350	49517	55993	62793	69932
Tax @ 35%	2682	4216	5827	7518	9294	11159	13117	15172	17331	19598	21977	24476
Net Profit	4980	7829	10821	13962	17260	20723	24359	28177	32186	36395	40815	45456

Projected Profit and Loss Statement for year 2
Particulars	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Sales Volume
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	5698	5840	5986	6136	6289	6446	6607	6773	6942	7115	7293	7476
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	5698	5840	5986	6136	6289	6446	6607	6773	6942	7115	7293	7476
Unit Price
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95
Sales By Value
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	170870	175142	179520	184008	188609	193324	198157	203111	208189	213393	218728	224196
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	170642	174908	179281	183763	188357	193066	197893	202840	207911	213109	218436	223897
Total Sales	341512	350050	358801	367771	376966	386390	396049	405951	416099	426502	437165	448094
Less: Variable Cost	170756	175025	179401	183886	188483	193195	198025	202975	208050	213251	218582	224047
Gross Profit	170756	175025	179401	183886	188483	193195	198025	202975	208050	213251	218582	224047
Fixed Cost	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000
Profit Before Tax	90756	95025	99401	103886	108483	113195	118025	122975	128050	133251	138582	144047
Tax @ 35%	31765	33259	34790	36360	37969	39618	41309	43041	44817	46638	48504	50416
Net Profit	58991	61766	64610	67526	70514	73577	76716	79934	83232	86613	90078	93630

Projected Profit and Loss Statement for year 3
Sales Volume	Quarter1	Quarter2	Quarter3	Quarter4
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	23548	24726	25962	27260
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	23548	24726	25962	27260
Unit Price
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95
Sales By Value
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	706218	741529	778606	817536
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	705277	740540	777567	816446
Total Sales	1411495	1482070	1556173	1633982
Less: Variable Cost	705747	741035	778087	816991
Gross Profit	705747	741035	778087	816991
Fixed Cost	375000	375000	375000	375000
Profit Before Tax	330747	366035	403087	441991
Tax @ 35%	115762	128112	141080	154697
Net Profit	214986	237923	262006	287294
Projected Profit and Loss Statement for year 4
Sales Volume	Quarter1	Quarter2	Quarter3	Quarter4
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	28623	30054	31557	33135
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	28623	30054	31557	33135
Unit Price
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95
Sales By Value
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	858413	901334	946400	993720
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	857268	900131	945138	992395
Total Sales	1715681	1801465	1891538	1986115
Less: Variable Cost	857840	900732	945769	993058
Gross Profit	857840	900732	945769	993058
Fixed Cost	375000	375000	375000	375000
Profit Before Tax	482840	525732	570769	618058
Tax @ 35%	168994	184006	199769	216320
Net Profit	313846	341726	371000	401737
Projected Profit and Loss Statement for year 5
Sales Volume	Quarter1	Quarter2	Quarter3	Quarter4
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	34792	36531	38358	40276
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	34792	36531	38358	40276
Unit Price
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	29.99	29.99	29.99	29.99
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	29.95	29.95	29.95	29.95
Sales By Value
Tinhorn Creek Icewine	1043406	1095577	1150355	1207873
Reif Estate Riesling Icewine	1042015	1094115	1148821	1206262
Total Sales	2085421	2189692	2299177	2414135
Less: Variable Cost	1042710	1094846	1149588	1207068
Gross Profit	1042710	1094846	1149588	1207068
Fixed Cost	375000	375000	375000	375000
Profit Before Tax	667710	719846	774588	832068
Tax @ 35%	233699	251946	271106	291224
Net Profit	434012	467900	503482	540844

The potential success of Canadian Ice Wine in Thailand market can be supported with the venture of the company Wine Garage that was created have a simple vision to help people to consume good quality of wine. The large success attributed by the company at present is due to its unique products and the natural process used for creating the wine (Wine Garage, 2018). As such, Canadian ice wine can also prove to be successful in Thailand market by providing unique taste products to the people of the country having manufacture from natural processes.

The market share of the Canadian Ice Wine will be assumed to remain at 10% to 15% as sales are in local region and at some places of tourist interest (Consumer and Market Insights: Wine in Thailand, 2016).

Cash Flow Statement for the pre Trading period
Particulars	Amount
Cost incurred in market research	$ 7,500.00
Equipment Purchased	$ 52,500.00
Website Development	$ 12,500.00
Advertising	$ 25,000.00
Furniture and Fitting	$ 67,500.00
Legal expenses	$ 6,250.00
Other expenses	$ 6,750.00
Total	$ 178,000.00

Key Assumptions:

It is assumed that all sales are made on cash basis
It is assumed that all expenses variables and fixed are on cash basis
Cash is collected in the same month and expenses are paid in same month
Starting Cash at the start of month in year 1 is $5000.
Tax has not been paid

Projected Cash Flow Statement Year 1
Particulars	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Starting cash position	$5,000	$12,662	$24,708	$41,355	$62,835	$89,389	$121,271	$158,747	$202,096	$251,613	$307,606	$370,399
Incoming
Cash sales	$194,805	$204,545	$214,773	$225,511	$236,787	$248,626	$261,057	$274,110	$287,816	$302,206	$317,317	$333,183
Total	$194,805	$204,545	$214,773	$225,511	$236,787	$248,626	$261,057	$274,110	$287,816	$302,206	$317,317	$333,183
Cash Outflow
Fixed costs	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000
Variable costs	$107,143	$112,500	$118,125	$124,031	$130,233	$136,744	$143,582	$150,761	$158,299	$166,214	$174,524	$183,250
Total Cash Outflow	$187,143	$192,500	$198,125	$204,031	$210,233	$216,744	$223,582	$230,761	$238,299	$246,214	$254,524	$263,250
Result
Change during month	$7,662	$12,045	$16,648	$21,480	$26,554	$31,882	$37,476	$43,350	$49,517	$55,993	$62,793	$69,932
Closing cash position	$12,662	$24,708	$41,355	$62,835	$89,389	$121,271	$158,747	$202,096	$251,613	$307,606	$370,399	$440,331
Projected Cash Flow Statement Year 2
Particulars	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Starting cash position	$440,331	$531,087	$626,112	$725,513	$829,399	$937,881	$1,051,076	$1,169,101	$1,292,076	$1,420,126	$1,553,377	$1,691,959
Incoming
Cash sales	$341,512	$350,050	$358,801	$367,771	$376,966	$386,390	$396,049	$405,951	$416,099	$426,502	$437,165	$448,094
Total	$341,512	$350,050	$358,801	$367,771	$376,966	$386,390	$396,049	$405,951	$416,099	$426,502	$437,165	$448,094
Cash Outflow
Fixed costs	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000	$80,000
Variable costs	$170,756	$175,025	$179,401	$183,886	$188,483	$193,195	$198,025	$202,975	$208,050	$213,251	$218,582	$224,047
Total Cash Outflow	$250,756	$255,025	$259,401	$263,886	$268,483	$273,195	$278,025	$282,975	$288,050	$293,251	$298,582	$304,047
Result
Change during month	$90,756	$95,025	$99,401	$103,886	$108,483	$113,195	$118,025	$122,975	$128,050	$133,251	$138,582	$144,047
Closing cash position	$531,087	$626,112	$725,513	$829,399	$937,881	$1,051,076	$1,169,101	$1,292,076	$1,420,126	$1,553,377	$1,691,959	$1,836,006

(Davies & Crawford, 2011)

Projected Cash Flow Statement for year 3
Sales Volume	Quarter1	Quarter2	Quarter3	Quarter4
Starting cash position	$1,836,006	$2,166,754	$2,532,788	$2,935,875
Incoming
Cash sales	$1,411,495	$1,482,070	$1,556,173	$1,633,982
Total	$1,411,495	$1,482,070	$1,556,173	$1,633,982
Cash Outflow
Fixed costs	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000
Variable costs	$705,747	$741,035	$778,087	$816,991
Total Cash Outflow	$1,080,747	$1,116,035	$1,153,087	$1,191,991
Result
Change during month	$330,747	$366,035	$403,087	$441,991
Closing cash position	$2,166,754	$2,532,788	$2,935,875	$3,377,866
Projected Cash Flow Statement for year 4
Sales Volume	Quarter1	Quarter2	Quarter3	Quarter4
Starting cash position	$3,377,866	$3,860,706	$4,386,439	$4,957,208
Incoming
Cash sales	$1,715,681	$1,801,465	$1,891,538	$1,986,115
Total	$1,715,681	$1,801,465	$1,891,538	$1,986,115
Cash Outflow
Fixed costs	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000
Variable costs	$857,840	$900,732	$945,769	$993,058
Total Cash Outflow	$1,232,840	$1,275,732	$1,320,769	$1,368,058
Result
Change during month	$482,840	$525,732	$570,769	$618,058
Closing cash position	$3,860,706	$4,386,439	$4,957,208	$5,575,266
Projected Cash Flow Statement for year 5
Sales Volume	Quarter1	Quarter2	Quarter3	Quarter4
Starting cash position	$5,575,266	$6,242,976	$6,962,822	$7,737,410
Incoming
Cash sales	$2,085,421	$2,189,692	$2,299,177	$2,414,135
Total	$2,085,421	$2,189,692	$2,299,177	$2,414,135
Cash Outflow
Fixed costs	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000
Variable costs	$1,042,710	$1,094,846	$1,149,588	$1,207,068
Total Cash Outflow	$1,417,710	$1,469,846	$1,524,588	$1,582,068
Result
Change during month	$667,710	$719,846	$774,588	$832,068
Closing cash position	$6,242,976	$6,962,822	$7,737,410	$8,569,478

(Damodaran, 2011)

Key Assumptions:

Tax rate @35%
There are no accrued expenses, no advance payment, unearned income and accrued income in each of year.
Sales is realised as it was expected
No change in expenses over the year
Fixed Cost will not fluctuate

Income Statement for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 3,100,735.83	$ 4,711,349.99	$ 6,083,719.66	$ 7,394,799.27	$ 8,988,424.73
Less: Variable Cost	$ 1,705,404.71	$ 2,355,675.00	$ 3,041,859.83	$ 3,697,399.63	$ 4,494,212.36
Gross Profit	$ 1,395,331.12	$ 2,355,675.00	$ 3,041,859.83	$ 3,697,399.63	$ 4,494,212.36
Fixed Cost	$ 960,000.00	$ 960,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00
Profit Before Tax	$ 435,331.12	$ 1,395,675.00	$ 1,541,859.83	$ 2,197,399.63	$ 2,994,212.36
Tax @ 35%	$ 152,365.89	$ 488,486.25	$ 539,650.94	$ 769,089.87	$ 1,047,974.33
Net Profit	$ 282,965.23	$ 907,188.75	$ 1,002,208.89	$ 1,428,309.76	$ 1,946,238.04

(Bromwich & Bhimani, 2005)

Four Line Summary for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 3,100,735.83	$ 4,711,349.99	$ 6,083,719.66	$ 7,394,799.27	$ 8,988,424.73
Gross Profit	$ 1,395,331.12	$ 2,355,675.00	$ 3,041,859.83	$ 3,697,399.63	$ 4,494,212.36
Operating Profit	$ 435,331.12	$ 1,395,675.00	$ 1,541,859.83	$ 2,197,399.63	$ 2,994,212.36
Profit Before Tax	$ 435,331.12	$ 1,395,675.00	$ 1,541,859.83	$ 2,197,399.63	$ 2,994,212.36

Sensitivity Analysis

When Sales decrease 10%
Income Statement for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 2,790,662.25	$ 4,240,214.99	$ 5,475,347.69	$ 6,655,319.34	$ 8,089,582.26
Less: Variable Cost	$ 1,534,864.24	$ 2,120,107.50	$ 2,737,673.85	$ 3,327,659.67	$ 4,044,791.13
Gross Profit	$ 1,255,798.01	$ 2,120,107.50	$ 2,737,673.85	$ 3,327,659.67	$ 4,044,791.13
Fixed Cost	$ 960,000.00	$ 960,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00
Profit Before Tax	$ 295,798.01	$ 1,160,107.50	$ 1,237,673.85	$ 1,827,659.67	$ 2,544,791.13
Tax @ 35%	$ 103,529.30	$ 406,037.62	$ 433,185.85	$ 639,680.88	$ 890,676.89
Net Profit	$ 192,268.71	$ 754,069.87	$ 804,488.00	$ 1,187,978.79	$ 1,654,114.23
Four Line Summary for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 2,790,662.25	$ 4,240,214.99	$ 5,475,347.69	$ 6,655,319.34	$ 8,089,582.26
Gross Profit	$ 1,255,798.01	$ 2,120,107.50	$ 2,737,673.85	$ 3,327,659.67	$ 4,044,791.13
Operating Profit	$ 295,798.01	$ 1,160,107.50	$ 1,237,673.85	$ 1,827,659.67	$ 2,544,791.13
Profit Before Tax	$ 295,798.01	$ 1,160,107.50	$ 1,237,673.85	$ 1,827,659.67	$ 2,544,791.13
When Fixed Cost increase 20 %
Income Statement for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 3,100,735.83	$ 4,711,349.99	$ 6,083,719.66	$ 7,394,799.27	$ 8,988,424.73
Less: Variable Cost	$ 1,705,404.71	$ 2,355,675.00	$ 3,041,859.83	$ 3,697,399.63	$ 4,494,212.36
Gross Profit	$ 1,395,331.12	$ 2,355,675.00	$ 3,041,859.83	$ 3,697,399.63	$ 4,494,212.36
Fixed Cost	$ 1,152,000.00	$ 1,152,000.00	$ 1,800,000.00	$ 1,800,000.00	$ 1,800,000.00
Profit Before Tax	$ 243,331.12	$ 1,203,675.00	$ 1,241,859.83	$ 1,897,399.63	$ 2,694,212.36
Tax @ 35%	$ 85,165.89	$ 421,286.25	$ 434,650.94	$ 664,089.87	$ 942,974.33
Net Profit	$ 158,165.23	$ 782,388.75	$ 807,208.89	$ 1,233,309.76	$ 1,751,238.04
Four Line Summary for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 3,100,735.83	$ 4,711,349.99	$ 6,083,719.66	$ 7,394,799.27	$ 8,988,424.73
Gross Profit	$ 1,395,331.12	$ 2,355,675.00	$ 3,041,859.83	$ 3,697,399.63	$ 4,494,212.36
Operating Profit	$ 243,331.12	$ 1,203,675.00	$ 1,241,859.83	$ 1,897,399.63	$ 2,694,212.36
Profit Before Tax	$ 243,331.12	$ 1,203,675.00	$ 1,241,859.83	$ 1,897,399.63	$ 2,694,212.36
When cost of goods 15 %
Income Statement for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 3,100,735.83	$ 4,711,349.99	$ 6,083,719.66	$ 7,394,799.27	$ 8,988,424.73
Less: Variable Cost	$ 1,961,215.41	$ 2,709,026.25	$ 3,498,138.80	$ 4,252,009.58	$ 5,168,344.22
Gross Profit	$ 1,139,520.42	$ 2,002,323.75	$ 2,585,580.86	$ 3,142,789.69	$ 3,820,080.51
Fixed Cost	$ 960,000.00	$ 960,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00	$ 1,500,000.00
Profit Before Tax	$ 179,520.42	$ 1,042,323.75	$ 1,085,580.86	$ 1,642,789.69	$ 2,320,080.51
Tax @ 35%	$ 62,832.15	$ 364,813.31	$ 379,953.30	$ 574,976.39	$ 812,028.18
Net Profit	$ 116,688.27	$ 677,510.44	$ 705,627.56	$ 1,067,813.30	$ 1,508,052.33
Four Line Summary for Five Years
Particulars	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Sales	$ 3,100,735.83	$ 4,711,349.99	$ 6,083,719.66	$ 7,394,799.27	$ 8,988,424.73
Gross Profit	$ 1,139,520.42	$ 2,002,323.75	$ 2,585,580.86	$ 3,142,789.69	$ 3,820,080.51
Operating Profit	$ 179,520.42	$ 1,042,323.75	$ 1,085,580.86	$ 1,642,789.69	$ 2,320,080.51
Profit Before Tax	$ 179,520.42	$ 1,042,323.75	$ 1,085,580.86	$ 1,642,789.69	$ 2,320,080.51

(Brigham & Michael, 2013)

References

Brigham, F., & Michael C. (2013). Financial management: Theory & practice. Cengage Learning.

Bromwich, M. & Bhimani, A., (2005). Management accounting: Pathways to progress. Cima publishing.

Consumer and Market Insights: Wine in Thailand. (2016). Retrieved on 2 April, 2018, from https://www.giiresearch.com/report/can336226-consumer-market-insights-wine-market-thailand.html

Damodaran, A, (2011). Applied corporate finance. John Wiley & sons.

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