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MAE256 Analytical Methods In Economics And Finance

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Part 1: Regression Models using Cross Section Data

Q1.There is a growing interest among economists and policy makers with regard to the effect socioeconomic and political environment has on country specific income and development. consists data on log of real gdp per capita in dollars (lgdpc), median age in population measured in years (medage), urbanisation rate with an index of one or less (ur) and political right index that ranges from zero to one (plr) of 125 countries of the world in 2000.    

(a)Provide a descriptive statistics of the variables real gdp per capita and medage. Comment on their mean, median, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis.

(b)Plot lgdpc against medage and ur in two separate scatter diagrams. What do you observe?

(c)Estimate the following regression model,

(d)Interpret the estimates ofand  in terms of percentage changes.

(e)Based on your estimated model, what are the predicted lgdpc and actual GDP per capita for Australia and Japan in 2000?

(f)Does the variable plr significantly explain the dependent variable lgdpc? Explain.

(g)Comment on the overall significance of the model.

Part 2:  Time Series Analysis

Q2.Use the data containing data on Thailand’s gross domestic product (gdp), consumer price index (cpi), exchange rate (exrate) and interest rate (ir).

(a)Estimate the following model and comment on the significance of the independent variables,  

(b)Re estimate the model in (a) by adding a single lag of all the independent variables and report the results in the usual form.

(c)Compare the estimated long run impact of the effect of interest rate and exchange rates on cpi.  

(d)Are the three lagged variables included in the model in (b) above jointly significant at the 5% level?

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