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Question:

1.Using equity valuation methods taught in Week 6 and described in Chapter 10 calculate the value of each selected ordinary share investment in terms of your required rate of return.

To answer the question, you will need to calculate the value of the companies selected, and to do that you need to demonstrate that you have learnt something about equity valuation. In your analysis, consider valuing the shares using the ordinary share discounted dividend model and then the comparable approach to valuing ordinary shares. Consider the principles that will determine the value of a company in your report. 

2.Rank the ten investments in order of desirability. Explain why you have ranked them in this way.

3.Which investment of the ten would you select? Why?

Requires you to consider the approach Warren Buffet uses to do a share valuation

According to Warren Buffet, "Intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised.

Answer:
Introduction 

With the increasing ramified economic changes, investors are the person who invests their capital in company with a view to create value on the investment.

There are several factors which need to be considered by investors before investing capital in particular stocks such as return, risk and opportunities available in market. All companies have been selected from different business sectors such as information technology, energy sector and financial market sectors. After that, in the end, Warren buffet valuation methods have been compared with other valuation methods (Andalib, Tavakolan, & Gatmiri, (2018). 

All the companies have been selected from the information technologies business sector, energy sector and financial market sector. In the end, comparisons between the Warrant buffet valuation theory and dividend discount model and PE ratio has been done (Zuzik, et al. 2018).

Use of equity valuation method 

In this part, 10 companies from the different industry sectors have been selected (Guerrini, Vigolo, Romano, and Testa, 2018). 

Capital assets pricing model and Discount valuation method have been used to identify the value of the stocks in market (Yahoo finance, 2018).

Formula to compute return on equity CAPM
RF+ (RM-RF) B

  • The RF stands for the risk free rate of return,
  • RM stands for Risk of the market
  • B= Beta of the Company
Computation of the Return on equity of the companies 

Computation of the Cost of equity of company by using the CAPM method

PARTICULARS

PRICE OF SHARES

GROWTH

COST OF EQUITY Computed by using the CAPM model

RISK FREE RATE OF RETURN

BETA

MARKET RATE

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADSLOT LTD

0.025

-0.40%

7%

2.77%

1.25

6.5%

ASSEMBLEBAY LIMITED

0.0.19

0.20%

11%

2.77%

2.25

6.5%

Altium

22.28

1.10%

7%

2.77%

1.1

6.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIS OIL & GAS LIMITED

0.39

10.00%

9%

2.77%

1.3

7.7%

ALGAE.TEC LIMITED

0.028

1.50%

6%

2.77%

0.68

7.7%

ADX ENERGY LTD

0.011

1.50%

11%

2.77%

1.71

7.7%

ADAVALE RESOURCES LIMITED

2.43

0.53%

10%

2.77%

1.4

7.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FINANACIALS

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

27.98

25.00%

8%

2.77%

1.01

8.2%

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

22.4

-26.00%

9%

2.77%

1.18

8.2%

AUSTRALIAN COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT LOANS

25.2

-30.00%

8%

2.77%

0.89

8.2%

(Yahoo finance, 2018).

Computation of the market price of Shares by using Dividend Discount Model 

This method is used to compute the share price of Companies by using the growth, last year price and retained earnings (Beatson, & Chen, 2018).

Price of the company

D1/ Ke-G

D1

Dividend payment

Ke=

Cost of the equity

G=

Growth rate

Particular

Net income( $ in million

Dividend pay-out ratio

Dividend payment

Retention ratio

Growth rate

KE

D1 (In million)

KE-G

Share price of Company

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADSLOT LTD

2105.8

2%

45.48528

98%

2.1%

7%

46.45

5.3%

873.2

ASSEMBLEBAY LIMITED

1537

0%

2.6129

100%

0.2%

11%

2.62

11.0%

23.8

Altium

63.31

2%

1.2662

98%

2.0%

7%

1.29

4.9%

26.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIS OIL & GAS LIMITED

64.29

2%

1.41438

98%

2.2%

9%

1.44

7.0%

20.8

ALGAE.TEC LIMITED

24.35

2%

0.36525

99%

1.5%

6%

0.37

4.6%

8.0

ADX ENERGY LTD

520

3%

15.6

97%

2.9%

11%

16.05

8.2%

195.7

ADAVALE RESOURCES LIMITED

-235

0%

 

100%

0.0%

10%

0.00

9.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FINANACIALS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

9928

6%

595.68

94%

5.6%

8%

629.28

2.6%

24070.5

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

4975

4%

199

96%

3.8%

9%

206.64

5.3%

3871.6

AUSTRALIAN COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT LOANS

1075

5%

56.2225

95%

5.0%

8%

59.01

2.6%

2229.9

 (ASX. 2018).

Computation of the Price earnings Ratio

Computation of the PE Ratio

PARTICULARS

MPS

EPS

PE ratio (MPS/EPS)

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

 

 

 

ADSLOT LTD

0.025

0.57

0.04

ASSEMBLEBAY LIMITED

0.0.19

0.25

0.65

Altium

22.28

0.35

63.66

 

 

 

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

AUSTRALIS OIL & GAS LIMITED

0.39

 

 

ALGAE.TEC LIMITED

0.028

1.4

0.02

ADX ENERGY LTD

0.011

1.3

0.01

ADAVALE RESOURCES LIMITED

2.43

0

0.00

 

 

 

 

FINANACIALS

 

 

 

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

27.98

2.2

12.72

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

22.4

1.5

14.93

AUSTRALIAN COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT LOANS

25.2

0.57

44.21

(Yahoo finance, 2018).

Rank the ten investments in order of desirability

Rank the ten investments in order of desirability

PARTICULARS

PE ratio

Market Price of the shares

KE

Beta

CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIANCE

RANK (IN TERMS OF BETA/ COST OF EQUITY)

RANK (IN TERMS OF BETA/ COST OF EQUITY)

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADSLOT LTD

0.04

873.19

7%

1.25

16.8

8

3

ASSEMBLEBAY LIMITED

0.65

23.81

11%

2.25

20.2

10

1

Altium

63.66

26.28

7%

1.1

16.0

5

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ENERGY

 

20.75

9%

1.3

14.3

6

5

AUSTRALIS OIL & GAS LIMITED

0.02

8.04

6%

0.68

11.2

3

8

ALGAE.TEC LIMITED

0.01

195.67

11%

1.71

15.4

7

4

ADX ENERGY LTD

 

 

10%

1.4

14.6

9

2

ADAVALE RESOURCES LIMITED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FINANACIALS

12.72

24070.55

8%

1.01

12.2

2

9

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

14.93

3871.58

9%

1.18

12.9

4

7

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

44.21

2229.93

8%

0.89

11.7

1

10

Which investment of the ten would you select

The best investment option which would be made to have higher return and less risk in the investment option is Adavale Resources Limited. This investment option will give higher return and will be accompanied with the less risk (Please see the attached excel file) (Chan, et al. 2018).

PARTICULARS

MARKET RATE -RISK FREE RATE

Dividend payment

DI/KE-G

CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIANCE

RANK

RANK

 

 

 

 

 

IN TERMS OF BETA/ COST OF EQUITY

IN TERMS OF HIGHER KE

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADSLOT LTD

3.7%

2.16%

29.462%

16.8180

5

6

ASSEMBLEBAY LIMITED

3.7%

0.17%

1.323%

20.1568

10

2

Altium

3.7%

0%

-1.100%

16.0047

8

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ENERGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIS OIL & GAS LIMITED

4.9%

0.00%

-10.000%

14.2638

7

4

ALGAE.TEC LIMITED

4.9%

4.05%

65.020%

11.1688

3

8

ADX ENERGY LTD

4.9%

1%

3.718%

15.3849

9

1

ADAVALE RESOURCES LIMITED

4.9%

4.98%

51.334%

14.5803

1

9

 

 

 

 

*

 

 

FINANACIALS

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

0.0543

6.06%

48.416%

12.2360

4

7

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

0.0543

2.49%

53.132%

12.8577

6

5

AUSTRALIAN COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT LOANS

0.0543

5.23%

98.791%

11.7064

2

10

Why the investment option selected 

The main reason for selecting this investment option is based on its less market price and higher PE ratio comparatively to others. The cost of capital of company is 7% which is too lower and will eventually increase the overall return on capital employed at large.

Research and summaries some interesting facts about Warren Buffet

The Warren Buffet is the biggest investors who endeavoured towards creating value on his investment and investment made on the behalf of others. He analyses several factors of the market and invest capital in the positive side of the organization. He evaluates the share price, beta of company, market premium and financial leverage of company before investing capital in the company. He has been appointed as CEO of Bershire Hathway (Lee, & Heo, 2016). 

Before investing capital in particular company, He uses profitability, earning per share and estimation of the risk associated with the invested amount. He reveals that a change in price and future outlook of the company does not depend upon only single factors. He analysis risk, Profitability, beta, financial leverage and other associated factors before investing capital.  It is evaluated that the intrinsic value estimates the precise figure which could be used to analysis the future value of the stocks in the near future (McMillan, (2018). 

There are several notes given as below about the Warren Buffet (Ferreira, & Marques, 2015). 

Warren Buffet Investment in Information technologies.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

In information technology busienss industry, Adslot Ltd, Assemblebay Limited and Altium Companies have been taken.

It is analyzed by the Warren Buffet that the share price of ADSLOT LTD is $ .025 which also shows the variation of 12% positive since last two years.  The financial leverage and risk of the business on international level is too low. The growth and Beta value of company is moderate. It shows that company will give good value creation on the invested capital (Penman, 2018).

Assemblebay Limited is having $ .019 share price which also shows the variation of 7.5% positive since last two years. However, the employee turnover is low but the return on capital employed is reflecting positive indicator for the investment purpose.  The growth and Beta value of company is higher which might give higher risk to the investors (Marella, & Raga, 2014). 

In context with the Altium Company, Warren Buffet has shown that company has big loss but due to its intrinsic value it will have good return after 10 years (Hurley, & Johnson, (2014)

In Energy sector, Australian Oil and Gas Limited, Algae tech limited, Adex Energy and Adavale Resources Limited Company have been taken into consideration.                               It is observed that Australian Oil & Gas Limited has lower share price as compared to other companies in the same industry which will make easy for the investors to buy more stakes in company with less capital. The beta value is also low and company is showing good profitability. AS per the Warren Buffet, investors should invest capital in Australia Oil & Gas Company (Djukic, et al. 2016). 

In case of ALGAE.TEC LIMITED, the net profit margin ratio of Company has increased by 22% since last five year. The financial leverage and capital structure is very high. As per the Warren Buffet, Company will grow and offer good amount of return in future if it maintains its financial leverage (Yahoo finance, 2018).

 In case of ADX ENERGY LTD, Buffet has reveals that company will be showing stable return and will have lower return throughout the time (Hickman, & Petry, (2011).

In case of ADAVALE RESOURCES LIMITED, there will be less return available to investors as company has low amount of profitability and highly risky business (Penman, 2012). 

Companies indulged in Financials Activities

FINANACIALS

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

AUSTRALIAN COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT LOANS

As per the Warren Buffet, the share price of AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED is $ 25.002 which also shows the variation of 15% positive since last two years. The beta of company has increased with the changes in market factors. It has been observed that higher profitability and increased turnover have shown that company will create good value in the future (Umoren, & Enang, 2015).

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD is also having $ 22 which also shows the variation of 11% positive since last two years. The profitability of company is also higher. Investors should invest their capital in this bank for long run (Levine, & Servos, 2017).

In context with the AUSTRALIAN COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT LOANS, Warren Buffet has shown that company has low profitability which shows that investors should their money invested in this company for long run if it wants to create value on the investment (Yahoo finance, 2018).

Compare Warren Buffet’s approach to share valuation and the share valuation methodology

After considering various factors, it is observed that the Warren Buffet, the share price of the company is highly based on the intricacies of the demand and supply factors which are prevailing in the market. There are several factors such as profitability, return on capital employed, financial leverage and market share of company which also affect the investment decision of the investors (Tseng, and Chiang, 2016).

There are several factors which needs to be undertaken as per the views of the Warren Buffet (Holland, 2017).

In terms of the Return on equity

Investors should analysis the return on equity and EPS of the company.

Financial leverage of company

The financial leverage should also be considered such as financial risk and sustainability of the risk. Company should have low financial leverage before investing capital (Yahoo finance, 2018).

Total turnover

The total turnover of Company has increased by 20% since last five years which shows positive indicator for the sustainable growth of the business.

Interest coverage

The interest coverage capacity of company is 24% which shows that company has good earnings before interest and tax to cover its interest payment.

Profitability of the business

The profitability of company is based on the net profit and return on capital employed (Montana, et al. 2017). 

Nature of the organization and legal compliance

Nature of the business, legal compliance program of the company will also be undertaken by company before investing company (Levine, & Zervos, 2017).

Share valuation Methodology

Warren Buffet uses the two-column Valuation Methodology to identify the market value and intrinsic value of company (Dorminey, Sivakumar, & Vijayakumar, 2018). 

These all models are used to evaluate the share price of company (Tsai, 2018).

  • Relative valuation
    P/E ratio is used to give the ranking to stocks or determining the undervalued and overvalued share (Andersson, et al. 2018).

· Dividend Discount Model

 

· Discounted Cash Flow Model

 

· This model is used to compute the share price of company on the basis of cost of equity, growth and last year dividend (Rossi, & Forte, 2016).

· 

· This model is used to compute the value of the shares of the company which does not offer dividend to its shareholders (Yahoo finance, 2018).

· 

Therefore, it could be inferred that Warren Buffet method is more appropriate method for the investors if they want to mitigate the possible risk and destruction of their invested capital. The Warren Buffet Method is most suitable method as compared to other method for the investors to create value on the investment (Andalib, Tavakolan, & Gatmiri, 2018).

Conclusion 

After analysing all the details and valuation models, it could be inferred that Warren Buffet considers several factors before investing capital in particular stocks. On the other hand, other valuation models consider only two to three factors to identify whether company will grow in long run. Now in the end, it could be inferred that consideration of several factors such as profitability, return on capital employed, financial leverage and market share of company is required by the investors before investing in the particular stocks.

References

Andalib, M. S., Tavakolan, M., & Gatmiri, B. (2018). Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments. International Journal of Project Management, 36(4), 600-611.

Andalib, M. S., Tavakolan, M., & Gatmiri, B. (2018). Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments. International Journal of Project Management, 36(4), 600-611.

Andersson, H., Hultkrantz, L., Lindberg, G., & Nilsson, J. E. (2018). Economic Analysis and Investment Priorities in Sweden’s Transport Sector. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 1-27.

ASX. (2018, may 09). ASX. Retrieved from.,  https://www.asx.com.au/prices/company-information.htm

Beatson, S. A., & Chen, J. (2018). Foreign investment, corporate governance and performance in the Chinese listed a share companies. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 16(1), 59-93.

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Chan, K. F., Powell, J. G., Shi, J., & Smith, T. (2018). Dividend persistence and dividend behaviour. Accounting & Finance, 58(1), 127-147.

Djukic, M., Jovanoski, I., Ivanovic, O. M., Lazic, M., & Bodroza, D. (2016). Cost-benefit analysis of an infrastructure project and a cost-reflective tariff: A case study for investment in wastewater treatment plant in Serbia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 59, 1419-1425.

Dorminey, J., Sivakumar, K., & Vijayakumar, J. (2018). Differential Volume and Price Reactions to Loss Announcements and the Association With Loss Reversals. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 33(2), 151-173.

Ferreira, S., & Marques, R. C. (2015). Contingent valuation method applied to waste management. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 99, 111-117.

Guerrini, A., Vigolo, V., Romano, G. and Testa, F., 2018. Levers supporting tariff growth for water services: evidence from a contingent valuation analysis. Journal of environmental management, 207, pp.23-31.

Hickman, K., & Petry, G. H. (2011). A comparison of stock price predictions using court accepted formulas, dividend discount, and P/E models. Financial Management, 76-87.

Holland, L. C. (2017). A Flexible Valuation Model Incorporating Declining Growth Rates. Accounting and Finance Research, 7(1), 116.

Hurley, W. J., & Johnson, L. D. (2014). A realistic dividend valuation model. Financial Analysts Journal, 50(4), 50-54.

Lee, C. Y., & Heo, H. (2016). Estimating willingness to pay for renewable energy in South Korea using the contingent valuation method. Energy Policy, 94, 150-156.

Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (2017). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth.

Marella, G., & Raga, R. (2014). Use of the Contingent Valuation Method in the assessment of a landfill mining project. Waste management, 34(7), 1199-1205.

McMillan, D. G. (2018). Returns and Dividend Growth Switching Predictability. In Predicting Stock Returns (pp. 57-75). Palgrave Pivot, Cham.

Montani, D., Perrini, F., Gervasio, D., & Pulcini, A. (2017). The Importance of “Contextualisation” in Small and Medium-Sized Firms Valuation: Evidences from an Italian Case Study. International Journal of Business and Management, 13(1), 70.

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Penman, S. H. (2012), A synthesis of equity valuation techniques and the terminal value calculation for the dividend discount model. Review of Accounting Studies, 2(4), 303-323.

Penman, S. H. (2018). A synthesis of equity valuation techniques and the terminal value calculation for the dividend discount model. Review of Accounting Studies, 2(4), 303-323.

Rossi, E., & Forte, G. (2016). Assessing Relative Valuation in Equity Markets: Bridging Research and Practice. Springer.

Tsai, J. F. (2018). Business Valuation And Investment Strategy for 3M Company.

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Zuzik, J., Mixtaj, L., Weiss, E., Weiss, R., & Laskovský, V. (2018). Quality of business valuation methods in Slovakian mining industry.

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