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Analysis of the Present UK Economic Situation as per the end of February 2018

Discuss about the Present UK Economic Situation.

The present report is carried out for analyzing the value of investment portfolio by investing a sum of money based on the research of the stocks on FTSE 250 in the UK. The money is invested in Fund Management Plc based in the UK from the perspective of a fund manager over a period of four week. The initial investment £2 million in the portfolio is distributed equally between there selected industry groups, these are, power sectors, retail and personal consumption sectors and technology and communication including sectors. The investment analysis is carried out through evaluating the current UK economic condition and providing sectorial information related to each of the three industry groups. In addition to this, the report provides an evaluation of the investment decision on the basis of ratio analysis for determining the financial capability of the selected companies. At last, the investment analysis is carried put from 5th March to 29th March for evaluation of the returns generated from the trade.

The economic growth in the UK is expected to remain modest at about 1.5% in the year 2018 due to increase in the consumer expenditure and the exports. The economic growth in the UK in the year 2017 has been very slow due to increase in the inflation that negatively impacted the household spending. The UK, regarded as one of the strongest economies of the world, is currently lagging behind its economic rivals due to the European Union (EU) referendum. The economic growth in the country for the year 2017 was about 1.5% which could have been up to 2% in the absence of Brexit. The service sector is expected to depict modest growth and the manufacturing sector is also estimated to realize its momentum of growth. However the performance of the construction sector is expected to worsen due to decrease in the consumer spending power restricting the investment in the commercial property (Focus-economics.com, 2018).          

It has also been estimated that real incomes at the end of the year 2018 would be decreased by 5 per cent in comparison to that has been forecasted. The major reason for the slow economic growth of the UK is the instability in the economic market and weakening of pound due to the impact of Brexit. The reduction in the business investment is responsible for the slow growth and development in the industrials sector of the UK. The weakening of the pound has lead to increase in the imports and also decline in the wages of the labor force due to rising inflation. It has been reported by the immigration statistics that there is a sharp decline in the number of people migrated to the EU since the year 2008. This is due to reduction in the real income level of the people with the rising inflation level. The major concern as highlighted in regards to the economic growth of the UK at the end of the year 2018 is increasing economic instability as the deadline of Brexit approaches in the year 2019 (Campos & Coricelli).

Sectorial Report on Each of the Three Industry Groups: Power to include sectors

The government at present is emphasizing to implement a post-Brexit migration system at the end of the year 2018 for improving the economic condition within the UK. However, many businesses have begun transferring their business functions overseas due to the increasing concerns over the economic environment within the country due to Brexit. The country though has maintained a steady economic growth by the end of the year 2017 and it is expected to show positive growth by the end of the year 2018 also. This indicates that the economy of the UK will attain stability over a period of time in contract to that predicted by the economists due to the impact of Bexit. The economists have predicted that UK economic growth will worsen in the coming period of time due to the occurrence of Brexit. However, the country was able to stabilize its economic growth though it is increasing at a slower pace. There is presence of economic uncertainty as the time of Brexit approaches at present in the UK but yet it has maintained a positive economic growth after meeting effectively all the economic challenges. The main challenges that is present before the government as it prepares for Brexit is to promote the growth and development of the business sectors. The higher cost of inputs and labor force is having large negative impact on their business growth at present. The country at present is placing emphasis on development of growth strategies to improve the productivity of the industrial sector and thus securing its global competitive position (Borowy & Schmelzer, 2017).

The current decline in the economic growth of the UK has also caused reduction in the oil process causing the slow growth and development of the energy sector in the UK. The energy sector plays an important role in contributing to the GDP growth of the country. As such, the increase in the oil prices with the maintaining of a positive economic growth in the UK will promote the economic growth within the country. The increase in the economic expenditure of the UK is also promoting the growth and development of Gas, Water & Multi-utilities sector. However, the oil and gas sector is not providing larger returns to boost the economic growth of the UK at present due to a decline in the oil prices. The Office of Gas and Electricity markets provides license to the companies for operating within the energy and gas sector. In addition to this decline in the oil prices, the energy and gas companies of the UK are also facing challenges of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions for protecting the environment from the negative impact of the operational activities of the energy sector (Goldsmith, 2017).

Retail and personal consumption including sectors

The increase in the consumer spending and the changing economic condition is likely to promote sales growth within the major retails sector such as clothing, footwear, electrical, health and beauty. The market value of the retails sector has reached to about 417 billion Euros at the end of the year 2017 and the value is expected to rise in the future for the year 2018. The Office For National Statistics have predicted that the increase in the volume of food sales is expected tor promotes the growth and development within the retail industry of the UK in the future context. It can be depicted from the below figure:

As depicted in the above figure, the retail sector is presently is in a phase of growth expansion and thus the investors can realize higher returns from investing in this sector. The sector is presently providing higher returns in comparison to other sector of the UK. The financial position of the companies operating within sector is good as compared to those of operating in other industrial sectors within the UK. However, the increasing competition level with the sector can reduce the overall profits earned by the companies. In addition to this, the retailers in the UK for continuing their long-tern growth and development need to reduce their operational cost and improve the efficiency. This is required to meet the challenges of reduction in the consumer spending due to slower pace of economic growth within the country. The consumers are becoming increasingly cautious about the spending due to the presence of political uncertainty within the country due to Brexit. These factors can negatively impact the retail sales in the year 2018 as consumers are waiting for inflation to subside that will cause an increase in their consumer spending level (UK retail sales growth continues in July, 2017).

The information and communications sector in the UK is regarded to be one of the fastest growing sectors within the country. The sector is estimated to be larger in comparison to the rest of Europe with gaining strengths from its electronic systems, communication, data management and analytics, data centers, cloud services, artificial intelligence, semiconductor design and sensors. The innovation in the smartphone market as it is estimated that about 92% of the adults in the UK will have smartphone over the next five years will further support the growth and development in the IT sector of the country in the year 2018 (Cullinan, 2016). The sector at present have presence of about 8000 companies that have good financial position due to higher sales realize from the growth in the Smartphone and internet market within the UK. The mobile market is regarded to be largest in overall Europe having about 80 million subscribers (Deloitte predicts UK telecommunications sector trends for 2018, 2018).

Technology and Communication Including Sectors

Also, there is relative increase in the number of consumers using mobile payment method that is further leading to the growth and development within the IT sector of the UK. The recent investment promoted by the government for improving the broadband network within the Europe will also promote the growth and development of the IT sector. As such, the sector can be regarded to be highly feasible for investment purpose as it is estimated to provide higher returns in the future context (Communications industry in the UK: investment opportunities, 2018).

Rationale of the investment made in portfolio in regards to the economic situation and industry sector analysis

The analysis of the economic growth in the UK and the information gained after sector based analysis will facilitate in decision-making regarding the investment in a particular sector to the fund manager. The investment rationale will help in selecting a particular stock that will provide highest returns from an investment. The analysis of the economic growth of the UK has depicted that it is still recovering from the phase of inflation and economic downfall. The economic growth of the country has experiences a large decline due to rising political and economic uncertainties due to its decision of leaving the European Union known by the term Brexit. The country through have recovered from the phase of inflation and squeezing consumer spending but still its pace of economic growth is slower. .However, it can be said from the current positive economic growth maintained within the country that it will recover from the phase of economic downturn soon and is expected to provide higher returns on the investment. The sector base analysis has helped in gaining an in-depth evaluation of the growth in the power, retail and IT sector of the UK. It has been analyzed from the various sources of information that power and utility sector of the UK is currently not in phase of good economic growth due to decline in the oil process (Campos & Coricelli, 2017).

However, the increase in the oil process with the economic reviver within the UK is expected to promote the economic output of the sector. Therefore, investors need to be careful while investing in the stocks of energy companies of the UK and should invest for long-term rather than for a short period of time. The retail companies have maintained a positive growth despite of the slow economic recovery and therefore investors are recommended to invest in retail sector. However, they need to gain an analysis of the impact of inflation on the consumer spending at present before taking the investment decision. The investors can presently invest in the retails sector for realizing larger returns as the future economic uncertainties due to occurrence of Brexit can negative impact the consumer spending power. At last, the analysis of the information and communication technology sector has revealed that its is one of the faster growing sector and the further large-scale increase in mobile and internet services by the population of the country will promote its future growth. Therefore, investors can gain larger returns in the future by investing in the sector (Ma, Pan & Zhang, 2017).

TLW TULLOW OIL PLC

Particulars

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Revenue

2646.9

2212.9

1606.6

1360

1884.6

EBIT

351.3

-1482.2

-1037.2

-751.3

24

Net profit

216.1

-1639.9

-1036.9

-597.3

-188.5

Current assets

2069.3

2086.6

1841

2461.6

2324.3

Current liabilities

1432.3

1339.2

1581.8

1648.5

1354.5

Inventory

193.9

139.5

107.2

155.3

168

Total assets

11508.6

11421.7

11347.8

10801.7

11028.5

Total liabilities

6185.7

7425.7

8192.9

8571.6

8322.5

Net interest

151.5

204.4

251

306.5

317.6

TLW TULLOW OIL PLC

Ratios

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Net Profit Margin

8.16%

-74.11%

-64.54%

-43.92%

-10.00%

Current ratio

         1.44

          1.56

          1.16

          1.49

          1.72

Quick ratio

         1.31

          1.45

          1.10

          1.40

          1.59

Return on assets

-14.30%

-9.11%

-5.39%

-1.73%

Debt ratio

         1.86

          1.54

          1.39

          1.26

          1.33

Interest coverage ratio

         2.32

        (7.25)

        (4.13)

        (2.45)

          0.08

EPS

         0.19

        (1.71)

        (1.14)

        (0.66)

        (0.15)

(London Stock Exchange, 2018)

The ratio analysis carried out for the TLW TULLOW OIL PIC will facilitate in evaluating the performance of the company that operates in the energy sector of the UK. It can be seen from the net profit ratio of the company for the period 2013-2017 that its profitability position is declining and it is running at loss. The current ratio is increasing which depicts that its current assets are increasing to current liabilities that can be positive sign for its future growth. Also, its return on assets ratio has also shown a sharp decline and negative growth indicating the company inefficiency to utilize its assets for generating income. The debt ratio has also decline indicating that it is utilizing less use of financial leverage in financing its operations. The interest coverage ratio has also reduced depicting the company less use of debt in comparison to equity for funding its operational activities. This can be a sign of positive growth for the company with the future increase in the oil prices. The Earning per Share (EPS) of the company has decreased form the period 2013-2017 indicating that its ability to generate value for the shareholders has reduced due to decline in its profitability position (Drake, 2006).

DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC

Particulars

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Revenue

240.52

268.9

294.38

316.79

360.58

EBIT

42.24

19.75

52.98

71.46

83.13

Net profit

29.88

11.48

41.69

57.56

65.24

Current assets

69.33

71.55

74.65

89.72

75.42

Current liabilities

52.42

61.39

78.59

71.34

84.39

Inventory

7.33

4.25

4.83

6.21

9.24

Total assets

181.78

166.43

165.2

185.45

256.37

Total liabilities

112.47

101.85

91.8

87.77

149.21

Net interest

0.26

0.6

0.56

0.12

0.71

DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC

Ratios

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Net Profit Margin

12.42%

4.27%

14.16%

18.17%

18.09%

Current ratio

         1.32

          1.17

          0.95

          1.26

          0.89

Quick ratio

         1.18

          1.10

          0.89

          1.17

          0.78

Return on assets

6.59%

25.14%

32.83%

29.53%

Debt ratio

         1.62

          1.63

          1.80

          2.11

          1.72

Interest coverage ratio

    162.46

        32.92

        94.61

     595.50

     117.08

EPS

 6.35p

 3.57p

 8.63p

 11.90p

 13.10p

(London Stock Exchange, 2018)


Domino’s Pizza Group PLC belongs to the retail and personal consumption sector of the UK. The company profitability position has increased from the year 2012-2016 which indicates that it is realizing higher profits. The current ratio has decreased indicating that its current liabilities have increased in comparison to the current assets position. The quick ratio has also reduced indicating that the company ability to meet its financial obligation from the use of short-term liquid assets has declined. This is not a good sign for the positive growth of the company. The debt ratio is increasing which states that it is adopting larger use of debt in comparison to equity for financing it assets. The interest coverage ratio has also reduced indicating that it is not able to effectively manage its debt (Drake, 2006). The EPS ratio is increasing which depicts that the company is able to provide large value to its shareholders in comparison to the money invested by them.

WILLIAM HILL PLC

Particulars

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Revenue

1486.5

1609.3

1590.9

1603.8

1711.1

EBIT

299.6

280.8

221.6

224.1

-44.7

Net profit

223.1

205.3

187.2

163

-84.2

Current assets

272.7

282.2

342.9

291.7

393.4

Current liabilities

328.6

369.8

663.2

410.1

477.9

Inventory

0.2

0.1

0.1

0

0

Total assets

2413.9

2380.6

2346.7

2442.7

2362

Total liabilities

1390.6

1220.3

1130.9

1217.2

1299.3

Net interest

39.9

42.7

38.3

45.9

35.1

WILLIAM HILL PLC

Ratios

2014

2015

2016

2017

Net Profit Margin

15.01%

12.76%

11.77%

10.16%

-4.92%

Current ratio

         0.83

          0.76

          0.52

          0.71

          0.82

Quick ratio

         0.83

          0.76

          0.52

          0.71

          0.82

Return on assets

8.56%

7.92%

6.81%

-3.50%

Debt ratio

         1.74

          1.95

          2.08

          2.01

          1.82

Interest coverage ratio

         7.51

          6.58

          5.79

          4.88

        (1.27)

EPS

 25.20p

 23.60p

 21.60p

 18.90p

 27.60p

(London Stock Exchange, 2018)

William Hill Plc belonging to technology and communication sector of the UK has reported a decline in its profitability position form the year 2014-2017. The company has also maintained a steady growth rate in the current ratio and quick ratio. This indicates the company has just maintained a equal balance of its assets and liabilities. The return on assets has decreased indicating that it is not able to utilize its assets effectively for generating sales. The debt ratio has increased indicating more use of debt by the company. However, it has maintained steady growth in the EPS indicating that the company is able to generate value for the shareholders.

EUROMONEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR PLC

Particulars

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Revenue

404.7

406.56

403.41

403.11

386.92

EBIT

105.33

103.34

123.12

47.45

43.43

Net profit

72.74

75.6

106.07

32.84

39.19

Current assets

97.68

98.46

110.14

170.35

127.8

Current liabilities

246.75

221.35

211.12

249.39

267.47

Inventory

0

0

0

0

0

Total assets

626.55

662.61

689.28

772.24

776.57

Total liabilities

301.04

313.71

251.09

303.25

488.93

Net interest

4.31

1.56

1.35

1.11

4

EUROMONEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR PLC

Ratios

2014

2015

2016

2017

Net Profit Margin

17.97%

18.60%

26.29%

8.15%

10.13%

Current ratio

         0.40

          0.44

          0.52

          0.68

          0.48

Quick ratio

         0.40

          0.44

          0.52

          0.68

          0.48

Return on assets

11.73%

15.69%

4.49%

5.06%

Debt ratio

         2.08

          2.11

          2.75

          2.55

          1.59

Interest coverage ratio

      24.44

        66.24

        91.20

        42.75

        10.86

EPS

 57.88p

 59.49p

 83.42p

 24.31p

 32.74p

(London Stock Exchange, 2018)

Euromoney belongs to the information and communication sector of the UK and its profitability position has improved from the period 2013-2017. The current and quick ratio of the company has increased indicating that it has maintained a sufficient amount of current assets for meeting its financial obligations. The return on assets ratio has decreased indicating that its inefficiency for utilizing assets to generate sales. The debt ratio has also decreased indicating less use of leverage while its interest coverage has also declined indicating that it is not able to meet its interest expenses adequately. The EPS ratio has also declined which means that it is not able to create profit for the shareholders.

MONEYSUPERMARKET.COM GROUP PLC

Particulars

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Revenue

225.55

248.13

281.73

316.41

329.7

EBIT

44.52

63.86

80.45

91.15

94.9

Net profit

34.48

52.76

63.43

73.53

78.1

Current assets

63.03

73.77

49.1

83.92

78

Current liabilities

36.12

63.82

48.32

54.8

52.9

Inventory

0

0

0

0

0

Total assets

249.84

249.66

221.74

249.52

232.4

Total liabilities

116.08

101.54

55.95

63.14

62.4

Net interest

1.01

1.53

0.24

0.66

0.8

MONEYSUPERMARKET.COM GROUP PLC

Ratios

2014

2015

2016

2017

Net Profit Margin

15.29%

21.26%

22.51%

23.24%

23.69%

Current ratio

         1.75

          1.16

          1.02

          1.53

          1.47

Quick ratio

         1.75

          1.16

          1.02

          1.53

          1.47

Return on assets

21.13%

26.91%

31.21%

32.41%

Debt ratio

         2.15

          2.46

          3.96

          3.95

          3.72

Interest coverage ratio

      44.08

        41.74

     335.21

     138.11

     118.63

EPS

 6.40p

 9.70p

 11.60p

 13.50p

 14.40p

(London Stock Exchange, 2018)

This company also belongs to information and communication sector and as indicated from the table of ratio analysis its net profit margin has increased from the year 2014-2017. The current ratio and quick ratio have declined indicting that its current assets position is not adequate to meet the current liabilities. The return on assets is increasing indicating that it is effectively using the assets for generating sales. The debt and interest converge ratio is also increasing which is not good for the future growth of the company. However, its EPS have increased over the period indicating that is able to realize large value for the shareholders ((Bragg, 2012).

Sectors

Companies

Buy Price

Shares

Total Buy Value

Sell Price

Shares

Total Sell Value

Profit/Loss

Profit/ loss %

05-Mar-18

In units

in pound

29-Mar-18

In Units

in pound

Oil & gas Producers

TLW TULLOW OIL PLC 

       182.75

     540

       98,685

        196.00

     540

     105,840

      7,155

7.25%

Travel & Leisure

DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC

       306.50

 1,700

     521,050

        327.82

 1,700

     557,294

    36,244

6.96%

Travel & Leisure

WILLIAM HILL PLC

       316.00

     675

     213,300

        330.30

     675

     222,953

      9,653

4.53%

Media

EUROMONEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR PLC

    1,204.00

     550

     662,200

    1,224.00

     550

     673,200

    11,000

1.66%

Media

MONEYSUPERMARKET.COM GROUP PLC

       260.40

 1,650

     429,660

        286.80

 1,650

     473,220

    43,560

10.14%

Cash

       75,105

Total

 1,924,895

 2,032,507

 107,612

5.59%

(London Stock Exchange, 2018)

The above table depicts the overall performance of each of shares in their respective segments and profits generated by each of shares as on 29th march 2018. The investment has been made on 5th of March in each of shares depending upon the company performance and it is has been evaluated through above table that overall performance of the portfolio has remain at average. The company Tallow Oil PLC that belongs to power group and oil and gas produce sector has provided the holding period return of 7.25%. The Dominos Pizza Group and William Hill belong to retail and personal consumption group and particularly they fall in travel and leisure sector of this group. The holding period return provided by Dominos pizza and William Hill is 6.96% and 4.53% respectively that clearly shows retail group has provided average profits in the portfolio as compared to other shares in the portfolio. The overall holding period return that the portfolio has generated in very short period of time was 5.59%. So it can be said that adequate construction of portfolio helps the investors in minimizing the risk and generating good return in very short period of investment also (Bragg, 2012).

The main purpose of the investment through use of portfolio is to maximize the overall returns and to minimize the risk associated with each share. The companies in each sectors has been selected on the basis of their performance analysis and maximum amount of investment has been made in those shares that shows excellent performance during the last few years. At the last date when all the shares in portfolio are sold it has been realised that some of companies has shown outstanding performance in short duration of time while some companies whose provide good return in longer period of time has failed to generate required return in given investment period. So overall it can be said that investment through use of portfolio has successfully helped in achieving the investment strategy (Brooks, 2015).

Conclusion

The complete analysis of above report indicate that whatever the market condition is within each group of industries, the use of portfolio as the strategy tool for making the investment always reduces the overall risk and gives the optimum profit on the investment. Same can be understood through above investment strategy where portfolio has been made after analyzing the market performance of each companies and it has provided very good return in shorter period of time.

References

Borowy, I. & Schmelzer, M. (2017). History of the Future of Economic Growth: Historical Roots of Current Debates on Sustainable Degrowth. Taylor & Francis.

Bragg, S. (2012). Business Ratios and Formulas: A Comprehensive Guide.John Wiley & Sons.

Brooks, R. (2015). Financial management: core concepts. Pearson.

Campos, N. & Coricelli, F. (2017). The Economics of UK-EU Relations: From the Treaty of Rome to the Vote for Brexit. Springer.

Communications industry in the UK: investment opportunities. (2018). Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/communications-industry-in-the-uk-investment-opportunities/communications-industry-in-the-uk-investment-opportunities

Cullinan, N. (2016). Technology sector overview. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://careerfinder.ucas.com/article/technology-sector-overview/

Deloitte predicts UK telecommunications sector trends for 2018. (2018). Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/press-releases/articles/uk-telecommunications-sector-trends-for-2018.html

Drake, P. (2006). Analysis of Financial Statements. Wiley.

Focus-economics.com. (2018). FocusEconomics | Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-in-the-world

Goldsmith, C. (2017). The UK's oil and gas sector is starting to show signs of growth. Cityam.com. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.cityam.com/267047/uks-oil-and-gas-sector-cautiously-optimistic-future-growth

London Stock Exchange. (2018). DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices/stocks/summary/fundamentals.html?fourWayKey=GB00BYN59130GBGBXSTMM

London Stock Exchange. (2018). EUROMONEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR PLC. Retrieved 814April 2018, from https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices/stocks/summary/fundamentals.html?fourWayKey=GB0006886666GBGBXSTMM

London Stock Exchange. (2018). MONEYSUPERMARKET.COM GROUP PLC. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary-chart.html?fourWayKey=GB00B1ZBKY84GBGBXSTMM

London Stock Exchange. (2018). TULLOW OIL PLC ORD. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary-chart.html?fourWayKey=GB0001500809GBGBXSTMM

London Stock Exchange. (2018). WILLIAM HILL PLC. Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices/stocks/summary/fundamentals.html?fourWayKey=GB0031698896GBGBXSTMM

Ma, J., Pan, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2017). Selection of Short-term Investment Strategy-Judgment Based on Average Adhesion State. International Journal of Business and Management 12(6), 165.

UK retail sales growth continues in July. (2017). Retrieved 14 April 2018, from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40959233

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My Assignment Help (2019) Present UK Economic Situation: Analysis And Sectorial Report [Online]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/analysis-of-present-uk-economic-situation
[Accessed 22 May 2024].

My Assignment Help. 'Present UK Economic Situation: Analysis And Sectorial Report' (My Assignment Help, 2019) <https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/analysis-of-present-uk-economic-situation> accessed 22 May 2024.

My Assignment Help. Present UK Economic Situation: Analysis And Sectorial Report [Internet]. My Assignment Help. 2019 [cited 22 May 2024]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/analysis-of-present-uk-economic-situation.

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