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Questions:
Describe the evolution of the volume of exports and imports. For this task you will need data aggregated over all products and all partners for the whole period available.
a. Generate a table with the time series of the country’s total exports and imports including the annual percentage change and the trade balance for every year. 
b. Add to the table the aggregate world exports for each year, as well as the annual percentage change.
c. Compute and include in the table your country’s export share in world exports for each  year, as well as the annual percentage change in the share.
d. Generate a line diagram for your country’s exports share over time. Briefly discuss your findings.
Answer:
Table 1 USA Exports and Trade Balance Since 1980

Year

USA Exports (in Millions USD)

USA Imports (in millions USD)

Trade Balance

(in’000 USD)

World Exports (in Millions USD)

Share of USA in World Exports

1962

21359.03437

16249.40134

-90636869.09

106886.2704

19.9829541080192

1963

22921.69114

17013.73952

-111247224.3

129059.2825

17.7605908702307

1964

26085.99424

18599.84998

-124361422.3

145337.7835

17.9485290100609

1965

27003.29981

21366.41331

-139275315.2

161168.982

16.7546506021822

1966

29899.00451

25550.30323

-152555798.6

177345.1701

16.8592155571083

1967

31147.18746

26815.62726

-161851964.7

187889.5192

16.5773948391421

1968

33953.30032

33088.52673

-187996988

216840.6553

15.6581800956586

1969

37461.5975

36042.82532

-206483795.3

238835.7598

15.685087330502

1970

42590.06081

39951.55975

-243465330.7

280945.7584

15.1595315203679

1971

43491.73088

45562.7743699999

-268340706.1

306722.804

14.1794905105769

1972

48978.57756

55563.35378

-323855989.7

367724.9342

13.3193517775512

1973

70245.98622

69475.71541

-445325713.7

510462.0669

13.7612549044554

1974

97143.97515

100997.2565

-678488012.1

770522.3542

12.6075479335319

1975

106102.1167

96903.51488

-694909668.9

795902.1526

13.3310503552217

1976

113318.5108

121794.6348

-780404314.6

888613.1924

12.7522876945648

1977

117926.3847

147862.4187

-947651664.5

1060468.416

11.1202165838931

1978

140002.8795

182195.8586

-997105897.4

1131999.144

12.3677548888692

1979

173661.7649

217393.5512

-1260862996

1429415.128

12.1491483825924

1980

212887.0369

250280.3674

-1522142261

1729919.665

12.3061805262526

1981

225776.4772

271212.6587

-1497788387

1718455.231

13.1383391971777

1982

206044.6771

253033.0378

-1359452988

1560388.032

13.2047076069357

1983

194620.3341

267970.986

-1311212604

1500723.305

12.9684355115639

1984

210216.575

338189.353

-1415736635

1620843.577

12.9695781846987

1985

205238.7098

358704.7096

-1467499317

1667628.394

12.3072208708276

1986

204654.1681

381362.4054

-1606726146

1806270.681

11.3302048353184

1987

243681.5217

422407.0779

-1893076549

2131648.438

11.4315999441929

1988

304886.4205

459016.6671

-2147581849

2447358.636

12.4577745139353

1989

346948.1935

491511.4971

-2398612976

2740451.536

12.6602564908453

1990

371466.0624

516442.0913

-2757169570

3123526

11.8925234653179

1991

397704.5484

507019.5917

-2795221787

3187816.702

12.4757658761819

1992

420811.9808

551590.953

-3037369753

3453072.101

12.1865969924735

1993

430189.0806

601137.4141

-2982895609

3407975.057

12.6230114198436

1994

476189.4257

687096.0701

-3403203624

3874283.417

12.2910322881226

1995

541366.8004

768667.222

-4091816189

4628073.356

11.6974550474796

1996

575477.0964

814888.1244

-4354703288

4925070.751

11.6846462832935

1997

637505.3435

894995.1365

-4481549159

5113944.87

12.4660190851324

1998

629281.3988

940776.0302

-4454123272

5078295.037

12.3915880064744

1999

636940.7468

1056183.55

-4646018490

5277849.604

12.0681867539195

2000

707741.3054

1215276.101

-5297133936

5999765.608

11.7961492426512

2001

659430.1784

1138821.15

-5116780383

5771100.928

11.4264190935262

2002

626034.7659

1197665.502

-5452725973

6073651.106

10.3073876811143

2003

647927.8889

1299898.855

-6415806380

7058624.636

9.1792370660104

2004

720755.7077

1521305.848

-7824648343

8540294.418

8.43947143309687

2005

794389.5526

1730416.009

-8908913855

9698193.774

8.19110827367664

2006

920621.0705

1913371.649

-10321474342

11236985.78

8.19277596885464

2007

1032806.065

2012488.387

-11975325764

13003022.2

7.94281552097181

2008

1150907.151

2158656.915

-13859033445

15004830.96

7.67024402751469

2009

922630.2481

1593167.384

-10554451715

11471972.33

8.04247274612952

2010

1104722.067

1955206.66

-12987415865

14087028.3

7.84212286322686

2011

1266153.646

2247208.567

-15580667474

16841711.49

7.51796304594476

2012

1315511.533

2256631.282

-15336752995

16647154.9

7.9023204934225

2013

1337697.222

2249945.806

-15959522901

17292110.49

7.73588176370396

2014

1377806.194

2396351.655

-15928084220

17300780.78

7.96383822759529

2015

1266164.458

2301939.508

-12747210919

14008265.74

9.03869530162236

2016

1207921.657

2231235.256

-13210158916

14412970.94

8.38079575500616

2017

1287448.09

2396830.573

-9322764459

10605102.92

12.1398924682457

Table 2 Growth of Exports of USA (in'000 USD) 

Exports, remained flat since 1960s and showed growth after 1970s. However, the trade balance has remained negative since 1962 and has by and large shown a growing trend , with the exception of the period during the Asian Financial Crisis.  Overall, USA exports achieved a new peak in 2000 but exports declined slightly following the peak but stared increasing in 2000.

The percentage of US Exports in the world exports has decreased continuously since 1962 with few minor exceptions in the late 1980s, during the sub prime crisis of 1997 and during the Global Financial Crisis and 2007. The trend here is that US exports tend to perform well during periods of global crises. There could be several reasons to this. Exports from other countries may be lower in demand, which may lead to an improvement in the share of US exports in world export. In any case, US exports seem to be recession proof. The share of US exports in the world have started increasing in the recent times.

A major trend that has been consistent over the period of observation is that the trade deficit (or the negative trade balance) has continued to rise without falling sharply. The trade deficit only fell 1982-83 2008-2009, 2011-2012

In 1962, the US Congress Passed the Expansion of Trade Act, in accordance to General Agreement on Tariff and Trade Agreement. Tariff as well as non-tariff barriers were reduced. Import duties were cut across the board. An average of 35% reduction in import duties for manufactured goods and 20% average reduction in agricultural goods was achieved. (Canto, 1983 ). The idea behind such a policy was to promote greater trade. It was expected that given the lower import barriers, other countries would reciprocate and increase access to their markets for US. However, the net balance relfects that imports seem to have grown more than exports, and that this idea may have not been successful. The falling share of exports may alsoreflect the same story. However,  there is also crtiticism that USA seems to only have reduced the tariff barriers to trade while not being so succcessful in the lowring of the non trade barriers. (Canto, 1983 ) 

During the Asian subprime Crisis of 1997 (Demyanyk & Hemert, 2009), US exports remained flat and grew further post 1999 despite the odds of lower import demand from Asia. However, US exports fell sharply during the financial crisis. However, exports recovered as sharply as well, showing a higher growth rate than the USA and then again in 2014. The year 2007, there was sub-prime housing crisis in the USA which then morphed into a global financial crisis. (Demyanyk & Hemert, 2009) The share of US exports seems to have grown during this period. During this time, countries allowed for greater budget deficits in order to stimulate demand. During the same period, the Federal Reserve Bank also, initiated quantitative easing which decreased the value of the US Dollar, thereby increasing the competitiveness of US exports and decreasing the competitiveness of exports from countries such as China whose currency is valued low.

In the Economic Survey of 2016, the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2017) commended the United States for achieving better recovery from the Global Financial Crisis than most countries in the OECD, including heavyweights like Australia and UK. Exports seemed to have helped in this recovery.

Table 3 Trade Openness

Year

Total USA Exports+ Imports (in Millions Usd)

GDP USA, Current Prices (Billions of USD)

Trade Openness

1962

3250.076468

151.27894

21.4839985110287

1963

3402.944204

159.64463

21.3157455442048

1964

3720.166396

171.44606

21.6987566920646

1965

4273.479162

185.93156

22.984151289537

1966

5110.257246

203.75894

25.0799170269525

1967

5363.322152

215.43244

24.8956109592364

1968

6617.902146

235.61925

28.0872727758874

1969

7208.761964

254.97106

28.272863176385

1970

7990.50895

268.97256

29.7075243501835

1971

9112.751974

291.94156

31.2143015744803

1972

11112.867956

320.61181

34.6614426628464

1973

13895.340382

357.13481

38.9078294684588

1974

20199.6487

387.20463

52.1678910730986

1975

19380.900476

422.23000

45.9012871562892

1976

24359.12456

469.39788

51.8944074043795

1977

29572.68144

521.48763

56.7083091185529

1978

36439.36952

589.14225

61.8515638964953

1979

43478.90814

658.03481

66.073872254289

1980

50056.27148

715.62688

69.9474450005808

1981

54242.72984

802.73681

67.572246588604

1982

50606.80576

836.24825

60.5164862945902

1983

53594.3955

909.53394

58.9251189981023

1984

67638.069

1010.17238

66.9569577172411

1985

71741.14042

1086.68594

66.0182836128769

1986

76272.67968

1147.53825

66.4663506249138

1987

84481.61428

1217.55431

69.3863209326032

1988

91803.53222

1313.15756

69.9105231859791

1989

98302.49832

1414.42381

69.5000306494062

1990

103288.61726

1494.89600

69.0941826454817

1991

101404.11744

1543.51250

65.6969849223767

1992

110318.3898

1634.82488

67.4802491000756

1993

120227.68212

1719.67763

69.9129187774366

1994

137419.41342

1827.18888

75.2081053580189

1995

153733.6439

1916.01519

80.2361301220114

1996

162977.82448

2025.05013

80.4808841361396

1997

178999.227

2152.12975

83.1730647280909

1998

188155.40584

2272.29006

82.8043078413102

1999

211236.9099

2415.15556

87.4630658082092

2000

243055.4202

2571.19381

94.5301824461356

2001

227764.4301

2655.45675

85.7722235920431

2002

239533.3006

2744.38050

87.2813739202709

2003

259979.9713

2877.66844

90.3439631585423

2004

304261.37

3068.73175

99.1488975861119

2005

346083.4023

3273.43038

105.724992638647

2006

382674.5304

3463.97288

110.472727186122

2007

402497.8781

3619.40900

111.205414502754

2008

431731.5838

3679.64694

117.32962187218

2009

318633.6777

3604.68488

88.3943225966458

2010

391041.533

3741.09569

104.525937229185

2011

449441.9145

3879.48338

115.85097062054

2012

451326.4576

4038.81375

111.747281636842

2013

449989.3625

4172.87919

107.836661997778

2014

479270.5324

4356.90219

110.002591698072

2015

460388.1031

4530.17838

101.626926136214

2016

446247.2528

4656.11881

95.8410364447718

2017

479366.3163

4847.65113

98.88630677811

Source for GDP: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2018

Trade Openness, in general, has increased with the exception of a few years in the year 2000, the year of the East Asian Financial Crisis (1997), the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009, as well as the last five years of the data observation. Generally speaking, trade openness has consistently increased both due to increase in exports as well as imports. In 2015, Trade openness are slightly but was nowhere near the peak of 2011. The peak of trade Openness was achieved just two years after the Global Financial Crisis ended.  However, the decrease in trade in the last five years of observation is in line with the world trade, wherein the general trade openness has decreased (and was predicted to increase in 2017) (Berthier, Monfort, & Stoliaroff-Pépin, 2017) . Some believe that World Trade may have peaked. (Hoekman, 2015)

Table 4 RCA Table for 1962

Rank

Code

Industry

RCA

1

688

 Uranium and thorium and their alloys

4.227978

3

679

Iron steel castings forgings unworked, n.e.s.

1.70848

4

663

Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.

1.336334

5

613

Fur skins, tanned or dressed, including dyed

1.314063

6

642

Articles of paper, pulp, paperboard

1.266692

7

629

Articles of rubber, n.e.s.

1.222925

8

665

Glassware

1.205598

9

692

Metal containers for storage and transport

1.138268

10

691

Finished structural parts and structures, n.e.s

1.12133

 Table 5 RCA Table for 1990

Rank

Code

Industry

RCA

1

689

 Miscellaneous  non ferrous base metals

2.112216

2

664

 Glass

1.042349

3

688

 Uranium and thorium and their alloys

0.976266

4

621

Materials of rubber

0.94501

5

631

Veneers, Plywood Board and Other Wood Worked,n.e.s

0.89607

6

684

Aluminium

0.859979

7

642

Articles of paper, pulp, paperboard

0.814247

8

655

Special textile fabrics and related products

0.784472

9

663

Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.

0.709667

10

611

Leather

0.696061

Table 6 RCA for 1990

Rank

Product Code

Industry

RCA

1

689

Miscellaneous non ferrous base metals

1.878844

2

611

Leather

1.720757

3

665

Glassware

1.348131

4

694

 Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles

1.269785

5

664

 Glass

1.156783

6

656

 Made up articles, wholly or chiefly of textile mattresses

1.149798

7

612

Manuf. of leather or of artificial or reconstituted leather

1.117096

8

692

Metal containers for storage and transport

1.113827

9

683

Nickel

1.109892

10

642

Articles of paper, pulp, paperboard

1.033819

The items that provide the most relative comparative advantage among the manufacturing industries have not changed much from 1962 to 1990. However, in 2017, USA seems to have exported more finished goods than raw goods. These are light manufacturing goods and not heavy or capital goods such as motor vehicles and manufacturing devices. However, this is not away from the unexpected global trend of increase in manufacturing of light goods, even among developed countries. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2013) For example, the item Glass has been removed from the list and Glassware has made it to the top ten good exported. Similarly, leather has been replaced by goods manufactured of leather, or artificial leather and reconstituted leather.

Overall, USA has always has a relative Comparative Advantage in exports of non ferrous metals and this has not changed over the last 55 years. Steel and other mineral manufactures were items that provided Relative Comparative Advantage but have declined over the period.

Export Diversification is also, an important parameter while considering the Revealed Comparative advantage of any country. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2013). The diversity in trade specialization of the USA for manufacturing goods has not dropped over the years. It ranges from metals and mineral manufactures to leather and glass articles and is not focused simply on a particular cluster of industries such as minerals and metals.

Table 7 Top Export Partners 1962

Rank

Country

Export (USD ‘000)

1

Canada

3742105

2

Japan

1408436

3

Germany

1060587

4

United Kingdom

1056626

5

Italy

764763

6

Netherlands

747393.8

7

Mexico

738719

8

India

667445.6

9

France

575011.5

10

Venezuela

465794.6

The top 10 export partners were identified as above . The World and Special cases were featured at number 1 and number 3 in this list. However, the World as a partner cannot be taken as that would be redundant and no information is available for the special cases. Hence, those are not counted. There were two Asian countries, one South American country, two North American countries and five European countries that formed the Top ten export partners of the USA.

Canada imported more that 2,5 times the goods than the next big importing country Japan. There is a polarization in the amount of goods imported.

Table 8 Top Export Partners 1990

Rank

Country

Export (USD ‘000)

1

Canada

77688872

2

Japan

46114347.95

3

Mexico

27358247.14

4

United Kingdom

21547650.43

5

Germany

17525082.43

6

Korea, Rep.

14069488.63

7

France

12627783.86

8

Netherlands

12274122.57

9

Belgium-Luxembourg

9841781.531

10

Australia

8303963.678

In 1990, Canada became the remained trading partner of USA. India and Venezuela were no longer top importing countries and Australia became an important country for US exports. The traditional trading partners, Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Mexico and Japan remained the top trading partners.  Another Asian country Republic of Korea joined the ranks as one of the top trading partners of USA.

Canada is a heavy weight trading partner as it imported more 1.5 times the goods as the next importing country i.e Japan. This shows that the gap decreased.

Rank

Country

Export (USD ‘000)

1

Canada

232957865.2

2

Mexico

186572498.8

3

China

119843746.6

4

Japan

61395674.78

5

Germany

45308958.73

6

Korea, Rep.

45122261.91

7

United Kingdom

43088951.48

8

Netherlands

36008161.03

9

Brazil

31583875.26

10

France

29138255.95

The traditional import partners more or less retained their positions. However, China and Brazil became an important trading partner. This is coincident with the rise of BRIC, the cohort of developing countries that were expected to rise fast during this decade. These Countries were Brazil, Russia, India and China.  (Mpoyi, July 2012) The biggest increase has been that of China. Exports of American goods to China did not even figure in the top 10, while in 2017, China was the third biggest importing country from USA. China imported nearly double of the next biggest importing country, Japan. Additionally, Mexico too moved up in the ranks. This reflects the rise of developing countries on the whole, including Mexico and China.

The Decline of European export partners , however, has not occurred. For example, Netherlands remained the eighth highest importing partner of USA in 2017 (same as 1990) but imported goods worth nearly three times the dollar value of the imports in 1990.

Most notably, no country from the Middle East or Africa was a part of this list. Saudi Arabia and UAE may be a part of the top 20 partners (according to personal analysis) despite having Free Trade Agreements with a number of countries in the Middle eastern and North African regions such as Oman, Israel, Jordan, Morocco etc. (Office of the United States Trade Representative, 2018)  The concentration of the largest trading partners has mostly been East and South East Asia, Southern Europe and the North American region with two South American countries and Australia being a part of the list.

Mexico and Canada an important trading partner of the USA and has always been. The North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement was signed to boost these partnerships. (Office of the United States Trade Representative, 2018) NAFTA came into force in 1994, following which US exports to Mexico, have increased. A repeal of NAFTA will hurt this source of revenues.

Table 1 USA Exports and Trade Balance Since 1980

Year

USA Exports (in Millions USD)

USA Imports (in millions USD)

Trade Balance

(in’000 USD)

World Exports (in Millions USD)

Share of USA in World Exports

1962

21359.03437

16249.40134

-90636869.09

106886.2704

19.9829541080192

1963

22921.69114

17013.73952

-111247224.3

129059.2825

17.7605908702307

1964

26085.99424

18599.84998

-124361422.3

145337.7835

17.9485290100609

1965

27003.29981

21366.41331

-139275315.2

161168.982

16.7546506021822

1966

29899.00451

25550.30323

-152555798.6

177345.1701

16.8592155571083

1967

31147.18746

26815.62726

-161851964.7

187889.5192

16.5773948391421

1968

33953.30032

33088.52673

-187996988

216840.6553

15.6581800956586

1969

37461.5975

36042.82532

-206483795.3

238835.7598

15.685087330502

1970

42590.06081

39951.55975

-243465330.7

280945.7584

15.1595315203679

1971

43491.73088

45562.7743699999

-268340706.1

306722.804

14.1794905105769

1972

48978.57756

55563.35378

-323855989.7

367724.9342

13.3193517775512

1973

70245.98622

69475.71541

-445325713.7

510462.0669

13.7612549044554

1974

97143.97515

100997.2565

-678488012.1

770522.3542

12.6075479335319

1975

106102.1167

96903.51488

-694909668.9

795902.1526

13.3310503552217

1976

113318.5108

121794.6348

-780404314.6

888613.1924

12.7522876945648

1977

117926.3847

147862.4187

-947651664.5

1060468.416

11.1202165838931

1978

140002.8795

182195.8586

-997105897.4

1131999.144

12.3677548888692

1979

173661.7649

217393.5512

-1260862996

1429415.128

12.1491483825924

1980

212887.0369

250280.3674

-1522142261

1729919.665

12.3061805262526

1981

225776.4772

271212.6587

-1497788387

1718455.231

13.1383391971777

1982

206044.6771

253033.0378

-1359452988

1560388.032

13.2047076069357

1983

194620.3341

267970.986

-1311212604

1500723.305

12.9684355115639

1984

210216.575

338189.353

-1415736635

1620843.577

12.9695781846987

1985

205238.7098

358704.7096

-1467499317

1667628.394

12.3072208708276

1986

204654.1681

381362.4054

-1606726146

1806270.681

11.3302048353184

1987

243681.5217

422407.0779

-1893076549

2131648.438

11.4315999441929

1988

304886.4205

459016.6671

-2147581849

2447358.636

12.4577745139353

1989

346948.1935

491511.4971

-2398612976

2740451.536

12.6602564908453

1990

371466.0624

516442.0913

-2757169570

3123526

11.8925234653179

1991

397704.5484

507019.5917

-2795221787

3187816.702

12.4757658761819

1992

420811.9808

551590.953

-3037369753

3453072.101

12.1865969924735

1993

430189.0806

601137.4141

-2982895609

3407975.057

12.6230114198436

1994

476189.4257

687096.0701

-3403203624

3874283.417

12.2910322881226

1995

541366.8004

768667.222

-4091816189

4628073.356

11.6974550474796

1996

575477.0964

814888.1244

-4354703288

4925070.751

11.6846462832935

1997

637505.3435

894995.1365

-4481549159

5113944.87

12.4660190851324

1998

629281.3988

940776.0302

-4454123272

5078295.037

12.3915880064744

1999

636940.7468

1056183.55

-4646018490

5277849.604

12.0681867539195

2000

707741.3054

1215276.101

-5297133936

5999765.608

11.7961492426512

2001

659430.1784

1138821.15

-5116780383

5771100.928

11.4264190935262

2002

626034.7659

1197665.502

-5452725973

6073651.106

10.3073876811143

2003

647927.8889

1299898.855

-6415806380

7058624.636

9.1792370660104

2004

720755.7077

1521305.848

-7824648343

8540294.418

8.43947143309687

2005

794389.5526

1730416.009

-8908913855

9698193.774

8.19110827367664

2006

920621.0705

1913371.649

-10321474342

11236985.78

8.19277596885464

2007

1032806.065

2012488.387

-11975325764

13003022.2

7.94281552097181

2008

1150907.151

2158656.915

-13859033445

15004830.96

7.67024402751469

2009

922630.2481

1593167.384

-10554451715

11471972.33

8.04247274612952

2010

1104722.067

1955206.66

-12987415865

14087028.3

7.84212286322686

2011

1266153.646

2247208.567

-15580667474

16841711.49

7.51796304594476

2012

1315511.533

2256631.282

-15336752995

16647154.9

7.9023204934225

2013

1337697.222

2249945.806

-15959522901

17292110.49

7.73588176370396

2014

1377806.194

2396351.655

-15928084220

17300780.78

7.96383822759529

2015

1266164.458

2301939.508

-12747210919

14008265.74

9.03869530162236

2016

1207921.657

2231235.256

-13210158916

14412970.94

8.38079575500616

2017

1287448.09

2396830.573

-9322764459

10605102.92

12.1398924682457

Table 2 Growth of Exports of USA (in'000 USD)

Exports, remained flat since 1960s and showed growth after 1970s. However, the trade balance has remained negative since 1962 and has by and large shown a growing trend , with the exception of the period during the Asian Financial Crisis.  Overall, USA exports achieved a new peak in 2000 but exports declined slightly following the peak but stared increasing in 2000.

The percentage of US Exports in the world exports has decreased continuously since 1962 with few minor exceptions in the late 1980s, during the sub prime crisis of 1997 and during the Global Financial Crisis and 2007. The trend here is that US exports tend to perform well during periods of global crises. There could be several reasons to this. Exports from other countries may be lower in demand, which may lead to an improvement in the share of US exports in world export. In any case, US exports seem to be recession proof. The share of US exports in the world have started increasing in the recent times.

A major trend that has been consistent over the period of observation is that the trade deficit (or the negative trade balance) has continued to rise without falling sharply. The trade deficit only fell 1982-83 2008-2009, 2011-2012

In 1962, the US Congress Passed the Expansion of Trade Act, in accordance to General Agreement on Tariff and Trade Agreement. Tariff as well as non-tariff barriers were reduced. Import duties were cut across the board. An average of 35% reduction in import duties for manufactured goods and 20% average reduction in agricultural goods was achieved. (Canto, 1983 ). The idea behind such a policy was to promote greater trade. It was expected that given the lower import barriers, other countries would reciprocate and increase access to their markets for US. However, the net balance relfects that imports seem to have grown more than exports, and that this idea may have not been successful. The falling share of exports may alsoreflect the same story. However,  there is also crtiticism that USA seems to only have reduced the tariff barriers to trade while not being so succcessful in the lowring of the non trade barriers. (Canto, 1983 ) 

During the Asian subprime Crisis of 1997 (Demyanyk & Hemert, 2009), US exports remained flat and grew further post 1999 despite the odds of lower import demand from Asia. However, US exports fell sharply during the financial crisis. However, exports recovered as sharply as well, showing a higher growth rate than the USA and then again in 2014. The year 2007, there was sub-prime housing crisis in the USA which then morphed into a global financial crisis. (Demyanyk & Hemert, 2009) The share of US exports seems to have grown during this period. During this time, countries allowed for greater budget deficits in order to stimulate demand. During the same period, the Federal Reserve Bank also, initiated quantitative easing which decreased the value of the US Dollar, thereby increasing the competitiveness of US exports and decreasing the competitiveness of exports from countries such as China whose currency is valued low.

 In the Economic Survey of 2016, the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2017) commended the United States for achieving better recovery from the Global Financial Crisis than most countries in the OECD, including heavyweights like Australia and UK. Exports seemed to have helped in this recovery.

Table 3 Trade Openness

Year

Total USA Exports+ Imports (in Millions Usd)

GDP USA, Current Prices (Billions of USD)

Trade Openness

1962

3250.076468

151.27894

21.4839985110287

1963

3402.944204

159.64463

21.3157455442048

1964

3720.166396

171.44606

21.6987566920646

1965

4273.479162

185.93156

22.984151289537

1966

5110.257246

203.75894

25.0799170269525

1967

5363.322152

215.43244

24.8956109592364

1968

6617.902146

235.61925

28.0872727758874

1969

7208.761964

254.97106

28.272863176385

1970

7990.50895

268.97256

29.7075243501835

1971

9112.751974

291.94156

31.2143015744803

1972

11112.867956

320.61181

34.6614426628464

1973

13895.340382

357.13481

38.9078294684588

1974

20199.6487

387.20463

52.1678910730986

1975

19380.900476

422.23000

45.9012871562892

1976

24359.12456

469.39788

51.8944074043795

1977

29572.68144

521.48763

56.7083091185529

1978

36439.36952

589.14225

61.8515638964953

1979

43478.90814

658.03481

66.073872254289

1980

50056.27148

715.62688

69.9474450005808

1981

54242.72984

802.73681

67.572246588604

1982

50606.80576

836.24825

60.5164862945902

1983

53594.3955

909.53394

58.9251189981023

1984

67638.069

1010.17238

66.9569577172411

1985

71741.14042

1086.68594

66.0182836128769

1986

76272.67968

1147.53825

66.4663506249138

1987

84481.61428

1217.55431

69.3863209326032

1988

91803.53222

1313.15756

69.9105231859791

1989

98302.49832

1414.42381

69.5000306494062

1990

103288.61726

1494.89600

69.0941826454817

1991

101404.11744

1543.51250

65.6969849223767

1992

110318.3898

1634.82488

67.4802491000756

1993

120227.68212

1719.67763

69.9129187774366

1994

137419.41342

1827.18888

75.2081053580189

1995

153733.6439

1916.01519

80.2361301220114

1996

162977.82448

2025.05013

80.4808841361396

1997

178999.227

2152.12975

83.1730647280909

1998

188155.40584

2272.29006

82.8043078413102

1999

211236.9099

2415.15556

87.4630658082092

2000

243055.4202

2571.19381

94.5301824461356

2001

227764.4301

2655.45675

85.7722235920431

2002

239533.3006

2744.38050

87.2813739202709

2003

259979.9713

2877.66844

90.3439631585423

2004

304261.37

3068.73175

99.1488975861119

2005

346083.4023

3273.43038

105.724992638647

2006

382674.5304

3463.97288

110.472727186122

2007

402497.8781

3619.40900

111.205414502754

2008

431731.5838

3679.64694

117.32962187218

2009

318633.6777

3604.68488

88.3943225966458

2010

391041.533

3741.09569

104.525937229185

2011

449441.9145

3879.48338

115.85097062054

2012

451326.4576

4038.81375

111.747281636842

2013

449989.3625

4172.87919

107.836661997778

2014

479270.5324

4356.90219

110.002591698072

2015

460388.1031

4530.17838

101.626926136214

2016

446247.2528

4656.11881

95.8410364447718

2017

479366.3163

4847.65113

98.88630677811

Source for GDP: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2018

Trade Openness, in general, has increased with the exception of a few years in the year 2000, the year of the East Asian Financial Crisis (1997), the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009, as well as the last five years of the data observation. Generally speaking, trade openness has consistently increased both due to increase in exports as well as imports. In 2015, Trade openness are slightly but was nowhere near the peak of 2011. The peak of trade Openness was achieved just two years after the Global Financial Crisis ended.  However, the decrease in trade in the last five years of observation is in line with the world trade, wherein the general trade openness has decreased (and was predicted to increase in 2017) (Berthier, Monfort, & Stoliaroff-Pépin, 2017) . Some believe that World Trade may have peaked. (Hoekman, 2015)

Table 4 RCA Table for 1962

Rank

Code

Industry

RCA

1

688

 Uranium and thorium and their alloys

4.227978

3

679

Iron steel castings forgings unworked, n.e.s.

1.70848

4

663

Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.

1.336334

5

613

Fur skins, tanned or dressed, including dyed

1.314063

6

642

Articles of paper, pulp, paperboard

1.266692

7

629

Articles of rubber, n.e.s.

1.222925

8

665

Glassware

1.205598

9

692

Metal containers for storage and transport

1.138268

10

691

Finished structural parts and structures, n.e.s

1.12133

Table 5 RCA Table for 1990

Rank

Code

Industry

RCA

1

689

 Miscellaneous  non ferrous base metals

2.112216

2

664

 Glass

1.042349

3

688

 Uranium and thorium and their alloys

0.976266

4

621

Materials of rubber

0.94501

5

631

Veneers, Plywood Board and Other Wood Worked,n.e.s

0.89607

6

684

Aluminium

0.859979

7

642

Articles of paper, pulp, paperboard

0.814247

8

655

Special textile fabrics and related products

0.784472

9

663

Mineral manufactures, n.e.s.

0.709667

10

611

Leather

0.696061

 Table 6 RCA for 1990

Rank

Product Code

Industry

RCA

1

689

Miscellaneous non ferrous base metals

1.878844

2

611

Leather

1.720757

3

665

Glassware

1.348131

4

694

 Nails, screws, nuts, bolts, rivets and similar articles

1.269785

5

664

 Glass

1.156783

6

656

 Made up articles, wholly or chiefly of textile mattresses

1.149798

7

612

Manuf. of leather or of artificial or reconstituted leather

1.117096

8

692

Metal containers for storage and transport

1.113827

9

683

Nickel

1.109892

10

642

Articles of paper, pulp, paperboard

1.033819

The items that provide the most relative comparative advantage among the manufacturing industries have not changed much from 1962 to 1990. However, in 2017, USA seems to have exported more finished goods than raw goods. These are light manufacturing goods and not heavy or capital goods such as motor vehicles and manufacturing devices. However, this is not away from the unexpected global trend of increase in manufacturing of light goods, even among developed countries. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2013) For example, the item Glass has been removed from the list and Glassware has made it to the top ten good exported. Similarly, leather has been replaced by goods manufactured of leather, or artificial leather and reconstituted leather.

Overall, USA has always has a relative Comparative Advantage in exports of non ferrous metals and this has not changed over the last 55 years. Steel and other mineral manufactures were items that provided Relative Comparative Advantage but have declined over the period.

Export Diversification is also, an important parameter while considering the Revealed Comparative advantage of any country. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2013). The diversity in trade specialization of the USA for manufacturing goods has not dropped over the years. It ranges from metals and mineral manufactures to leather and glass articles and is not focused simply on a particular cluster of industries such as minerals and metals.

Table 7 Top Export Partners 1962

Rank

Country

Export (USD ‘000)

1

Canada

3742105

2

Japan

1408436

3

Germany

1060587

4

United Kingdom

1056626

5

Italy

764763

6

Netherlands

747393.8

7

Mexico

738719

8

India

667445.6

9

France

575011.5

10

Venezuela

465794.6

The top 10 export partners were identified as above . The World and Special cases were featured at number 1 and number 3 in this list. However, the World as a partner cannot be taken as that would be redundant and no information is available for the special cases. Hence, those are not counted. There were two Asian countries, one South American country, two North American countries and five European countries that formed the Top ten export partners of the USA.

Canada imported more that 2,5 times the goods than the next big importing country Japan. There is a polarization in the amount of goods imported.

Table 8 Top Export Partners 1990

Rank

Country

Export (USD ‘000)

1

Canada

77688872

2

Japan

46114347.95

3

Mexico

27358247.14

4

United Kingdom

21547650.43

5

Germany

17525082.43

6

Korea, Rep.

14069488.63

7

France

12627783.86

8

Netherlands

12274122.57

9

Belgium-Luxembourg

9841781.531

10

Australia

8303963.678

In 1990, Canada became the remained trading partner of USA. India and Venezuela were no longer top importing countries and Australia became an important country for US exports. The traditional trading partners, Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Mexico and Japan remained the top trading partners.  Another Asian country Republic of Korea joined the ranks as one of the top trading partners of USA.

Canada is a heavy weight trading partner as it imported more 1.5 times the goods as the next importing country i.e Japan. This shows that the gap decreased.

Rank

Country

Export (USD ‘000)

1

Canada

232957865.2

2

Mexico

186572498.8

3

China

119843746.6

4

Japan

61395674.78

5

Germany

45308958.73

6

Korea, Rep.

45122261.91

7

United Kingdom

43088951.48

8

Netherlands

36008161.03

9

Brazil

31583875.26

10

France

29138255.95

The traditional import partners more or less retained their positions. However, China and Brazil became an important trading partner. This is coincident with the rise of BRIC, the cohort of developing countries that were expected to rise fast during this decade. These Countries were Brazil, Russia, India and China.  (Mpoyi, July 2012) The biggest increase has been that of China. Exports of American goods to China did not even figure in the top 10, while in 2017, China was the third biggest importing country from USA. China imported nearly double of the next biggest importing country, Japan. Additionally, Mexico too moved up in the ranks. This reflects the rise of developing countries on the whole, including Mexico and China.

The Decline of European export partners , however, has not occurred. For example, Netherlands remained the eighth highest importing partner of USA in 2017 (same as 1990) but imported goods worth nearly three times the dollar value of the imports in 1990.

Most notably, no country from the Middle East or Africa was a part of this list. Saudi Arabia and UAE may be a part of the top 20 partners (according to personal analysis) despite having Free Trade Agreements with a number of countries in the Middle eastern and North African regions such as Oman, Israel, Jordan, Morocco etc. (Office of the United States Trade Representative, 2018)  The concentration of the largest trading partners has mostly been East and South East Asia, Southern Europe and the North American region with two South American countries and Australia being a part of the list.

Mexico and Canada an important trading partner of the USA and has always been. The North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement was signed to boost these partnerships. (Office of the United States Trade Representative, 2018) NAFTA came into force in 1994, following which US exports to Mexico, have increased. A repeal of NAFTA will hurt this source of revenues.

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