Top Down And Bottom Up Analysis Of Australian Banking Industry

a) Conduct a Top Down analysis of the overall economic environment and consider how forecast changes in economic fundamentals will impact on the performances of companies in the industry your group has chosen. Consider questions including, but not limited to: What is the current interest rate? What is the current value of the $AUD? What is current GDP etc? 
b) Conduct a Bottom Up analysis of companies' current financial situation. Consider accounting ratios and measures of a firm's performance, how these need to be compared to the industry and company history, All of the required information for calculation and often the actual ratio/number can be found on various websites on the internet. 

In terms of business, it can be hereby mentioned that proper analysis of company as well as industry is of utmost importance to investors before arriving at investment decisions. Fundamentally this study undertakes fundamental analysis on two corporations explicitly, Common Wealth Bank of Australia (CBA) as well as Westpac listed in the ASX. The top down analysis presented current study can aid the financiers in presenting a macro view of the respective economy as well as industry. Again, the bottom up approach carried out in the present study can help in representing the micro-economic view of the respective corporation. Moving further, the current study also proposes recommendations based on the findings of the study.

As rightly indicated by Moradi-Motlagh and Babacan (2015), there are a large number of licensed banks that are operating in the banking segment of the nation. However, a steady growth can be witnessed in the overall performance of the asset of the banks and this in turn helps in the overall growth rate of the economy. Again, the stability of this particular segment is maintained by the augmentation of the capital of the company in the recent quarters. Again, another significant factor covered by the segment of the nation includes greater emphasis on the Liquidity Coverage Ratio or else the LCR (Moradi-Motlagh and Babacan 2015).  The Banking Act of 1959 helps in improvement of functioning of Australian banking corporations.

Evaluation of the financial stability of the nation refers to the fact that high importance can be attached to the process of analysis of performance of asset of the Australian banks. During the year 2016, an important step comprises of generation of business loans (Kpmg.com 2017). However, competitive pressure as well as significant decisions undertaken by the nation that helps in analysis of growth as well as development of diverse cities. However, the trend that can be witnessed in the banking segment in Australia consists of critical evaluation of the process of valuation of commercial property (Deloitte 2017). Again, the nature of competition in the banking segment is essentially considered to be consistent. Particularly, this can be considered as the primary reason that has led to the development of this particular sector over the years. The free democracy of the banking segment consists of the significance of presence of banks along with securitization. Besides this, the third alteration exists in the share of resources. Finally, economy’s growth is founded on the decrease in the existence of credit unions, finance corporations as well as building societies (Clmr.unsw.edu.au 2017).

Commonwealth Bank of Australia pronounces the mission statement. This declaration reads about the intention to foster the amount of wealth of all the clientele. In essence, this can help in making certain that the wishes of the customers are satisfied. Again, the vision statement of the bank states about the intention of enhancement of overall financial well being of the individual. Essentially, this also takes account of retention of trust of clientele by securing both the business as well as the community in which the business operates (Commbank.com.au 2017).

The vision of the corporation Westpac is to aid the customers of the firm across the globe to attain growth and prosperity. The management of the corporation also intends to offer specialised services to the consumers by supporting them in their process of growth. However, the mission of the bank Westpac also involves providing higher rate of return to different clientele, business professionals along with other investors. In addition to this, the corporation also intends to the best place for the worker. In essence, the members of the staff of the firm also intend to thrive on their own style of management and institute a business concern that is effective in developing long term association (Westpac.com.au  2017).

Arjomandi et al. (2014) affirms that analysis of industry primarily starts with the top down analysis. Essentially, the Australian economy is a developing nation. However, in the present state of affairs this industry has attained considerable amount of growth. The growth rate of GDP is taken roughly 4.40% and on the basis of this growth rate the top down analysis can be undertaken.

Based on the data presented in the figure, it can be hereby concluded that rate of growth of nation Australia is on a rising trend and simultaneously the rate of unemployment also has declined as compared to previous years. Furthermore, rate of inflation registered for the nation Australia has also escalated and present current account deficit has also widened. However, this can be regarded as a negative mark for the Australian economy, therefore, numerous steps are necessary from the government in a bid to minimize the overall rate of growth (Paradi and Zhu 2013)

Banking industry is one of the largest contributors towards the growth of the entire nation. Transformations have taken place as a whole in the proportion of GDP in FY 2015. Analysis of GDP of the nation divulges the fact that this particular indicator augmented by nearly 1% from the time of June, 2012 (Paradi and Zhu 2013). Besides this, the service segments such as the banking industry, considerable growth of the country’s GDP has significantly contributed by particularly the agriculture as well as mineral resources (Zander et al. 2015). Additionally, expenses also got amplified by roughly 2% in advanced economic state of affairs. Essentially, during 2016, it complete growth in GDP of the nation was observed to be 1%, primarily driven by service segment. Majority of the renowned economists are of the view that the overall intensification of the Australian Dollar in the global market would be substantial (Zander et al. 2015). Again, this will also comprise of the instability that has been delivered by the market capitalization (Zander et al. 2015).

Intrinsically, the banking sector is struggling to deliver the best to the entire economy. The overall development of GDP is just about 3% as recorded during prior years. Even so, the banking business is a major contributor towards the overall development. In this connection, it can be mentioned that majority of the banks operating in the nation is attempting to help the clients prosper. Again, this is essentially one of the primary reasons behind the significant rate of growth of the economy. Biener et al. (2016) opines that economic plus insurance facility has roughly 2% contribution in nation’s Gross Domestic Product (Sharma et al. 2013). Nevertheless, the other side of the story indicates towards the banking segment and development of GDP and this refers to the inflation. Again, inflation might be the fundamental cause that might possibly make repayment of debt difficult for the clientele. This essentially influences the rate of growth of GDP by in spite of lower rate of interest. However, the competition of diverse banks in the nation is pivotal in evaluating the key performance markers. Analysis of this specific market reflects that this sector can be considered to be one of the primary necessities of the clientele to plan about their future. Majority of the economists of the nation assert that that the banking segment take action to bridge the gap between the stakeholders and the entire economy.  

As a matter of fact, economists consider pecuniary services of Australia as one of the prime givers to the advancement attained by a nation. Necessarily, this contributed sum is said to be just about $139.9 billion in the entire GDP (Cavusgil et al. 2014).This specific sector of the nation employed roughly 450000 individuals. However, this top category bank of the nation for instance Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) in addition to Westpac can be measured as banks with utmost security specified among the 25 most secured banks in the entire universe. According to the World Economic Forum Financial Development Index of the year 2012, Australia can be rated as one of the best performing among all others in the financial unit. Essentially, financial stability or else consistency offered by the banks that is to say the Commonwealth Banks and the Westpac play a very significant role in the same.

Basically, the financial system of the nation is essentially robust and this is the main reason behind the high rate of growth of the sector that subsequently contributes towards the GDP.

Evaluation of the banks assisted in comprehending the overall contribution of this segment towards the GDP. Again, the banks have also contributed towards sustainable growth that has again led to overall growth of the nation. Strong existence of this banking segment might probably be regarded as one of the most important reasons that facilitated growth of the nation (Needles et al. 2013). The connection or in other words the relation instituted by the banks with tactical mission of assisting the shareholders has contributed towards the growth on the whole.

Analysis of the company is lastly considered in the process of top down analysis. Essentially, this can be concluded that the GDP of the Australian economy is anticipated to grow in the upcoming period. Particularly, this might have a desirable influence on the operations of Commonwealth Bank and the Westpac. In case if the rate of GDP and the rate of unemployment decreases, then both of these corporations might successfully enhance the market capitalization together with the base of the customers (Leuz and Wysocki 2016). However, both of these corporations have performed well throughout the past few years and is anticipated to grow at an even higher rate in the future. The Australian economy has a positive influence on the prices of the stock listed in the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). Again, it can be observed that the prices of the stock of the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) have developed by a huge percentage in the recent years  (Commbank.com.au 2017). During the year 2012, the price of shares of the firm CBA was registered to be around 40 and presently, it is traded at a price $74.43. Again, on the other hand, price of share of the bank Westpac was documented to be 18 during the year 2012 while it is currently traded at a price of nearly 29.59. Based on this, it can be hereby conclude that the Australian economy has a direct as well as positive association on the overall financial performance of all the two different banks such as CBA and Westpac (Hail 2013)

Bottom up analysis can be employed with the assistance of the Company, industry as well as the economy tactic. This refers to the fact that firstly, a particular financier has the need to evaluate a corporation and thereafter the industry and subsequently the economy in which the firm is functioning (Bauer 2016). Thus, it is of much importance to understand the overall financial state of affairs of the two corporations selected for the current study.

In addition to this, the financial condition can be analytically evaluated using key financial ratio. Essentially, financial ratio can be said to be of different types that includes the profitability ratio, efficiency ratio, liquidity ratio as well as growth ratio among many others. However, the entire financial ratio might assist a financier to compare between firms from the perspective of financial performance of the corporation (Makkonen et al. 2014).

Profitability ratio of the corporation essentially replicates the profit framework of the corporation for the financiers (Grant 2016). The primary profitability ratio includes the operating profit ratio, dividend payout ratio together with the net profit ratio.

Overall fraction of operating earnings over proceeds deciphered from sales is operating profit (Bartov and Mohanram 2014). Based on findings presented above, Westpac has considerably greater operating profit margin in comparison to the operating profit of Commonwealth Bank (Leuz and Wysocki 2016). Again, the operating margin of the firm Westpac is recorded to be nearly 52.57%. On the other hand, the operating margin of Commonwealth Bank is registered to be 45.75% during the FY 2015 (Bauer 2016). Even so, operating profit margin dropped for both banks. However, on the other hand, the profitability of the bank Westpac is calculated to be more than that of the other bank CBA.  

In the same way, net profit margin indicates percentage of acquired net profit of firms over proceeds from sales (Makkonen et al. 2014). In effect, net profit margin of banks under deliberation is as graphically represented below:

Westpac has relatively enhanced financial situation when considered in terms of profitability in comparison to CBA. Observation says that proceeds of Westpac Bank are mounting and business has succeeded in diminishing direct and indirect pay outs. Thus, it can be hereby inferred that Westpac has enhanced capacity for use of sales proceeds in comparison to that of Commonwealth Bank (Commbank.com.au 2017). However, the overall profit of Commonwealth Bank has dropped from 37.92% to roughly 37.02% in the financial year 2015. Proceeds of CBA were enumerated to be $27497. Nonetheless, Westpac had relatively lower profits of just about $21642. Therefore, it can be assessed that the management of CBA has failed to restrict the operating outlay, even if net profit is more than what is recorded for Westpac (Bartov and Mohanram 2014).

Ratio of dividend payout represents that the entire amount of dividend compensated to the shareholders according to the net earnings of corporation. However, this ratio can again be evaluated with the assistance of the two graphs presented below:

Analytical evaluation of the findings reveals that CBA has a improved dividend payout ratio in comparison to that of Westpac Bank. Essentially, this further concludes that CBA provide dividends recurrently respective of the margin of profit. Nevertheless, the results are optimistic that in turn encourages financiers more. Again, it can also be hereby concluded that the overall revenue as well as net earnings of the corporation CBA is higher than that of Westpac enumerated for the past five years (Commbank.com.au 2017).

In this case, efficiency ratio represents that the internal behaviour of particularly assets as well as liabilities of a specific corporation (Bartov and Mohanram 2014). Essentially, this provides the ides to the financiers of the firm as regards the inventory turnover, overall usage of equity and entire amount of receivable as well as payables.

Ratio on asset turnover discloses the portion of possessions that the business is utilizing from the sales proceeds. Yet again, results of the observation helps in arriving at the conclusion that Commonwealth Bank has employed greater proportion of assets. Nevertheless, for the firm CBA, asset turnover ratio is observed to be 0.31 in the FY 2015. On the contrary, ratio on asset turnover of mainly Westpac is just about 0.0267. Again, this basically represents that the firm CBA has a desirable position in case of efficiency than the competitors of the firm Westpac. Intrinsically, this ratio assists financiers to analyse the efficiency of the corporation in terms of handling fixed as well as current assets (Bartov and Mohanram 2014). Based on the given evaluation, it can be witnessed that the firm CBA is favourable for the financiers since it effectively manages all its fixed along with the current assets of the corporation.

Again, the liquidity ratios replicate the overall liquidity position of the corporation (Grant 2016). In case if this particular ratio is on a rising trend, then it can be deduced that the corporation has adequate inflows of cash and the particular corporation has effectively used the working capital in an effectual manner. Furthermore, it can also be mentioned hitherto that excessive liquidity is also not a positive signal as well for any business concern since the corporation tend to get exposed to specific risk associated to financial leverage (Makkonen et al. 2014).

Based on two different graphs presented above, it can be hereby inferred that the current ratio of the two mentioned firms have varied over the last few years. As per the results of the previous financial year, current ratio of Westpac is enumerated to be 1.26, while the current y ratio of the firm CBA is recorded to be around 0.89. Essentially, this supposes that the corporation Westpac can fruitfully recompense all the short term debt than that of the CBA (Westpac.com.au 2017). In terms of CBA, it can be deduced that the current ratio decreased from 2.26 to 0.89. During the year 2014, a higher fraction of the corporation’s current assets had become archaic and during the year 2015, the company has essentially marketed all the current assets, leading to decrease in the current ratio. As such, analysis of the results helps in understanding the fact this is a positive signal from the perspective of financiers (Leuz and Wysocki 2016).

By way of carrying out relative analysis of the financial condition of the two said companies with the aid of key financial ratio, this can be essentially be deduced that the firm Westpac has a to some extent preferable condition as compared to CBA in terms of both liquidity as well as profitability. Nonetheless, level of effectiveness of CBA is necessarily higher than that of the Westpac, yet the corporation Westpac has relatively desirable edge in comparison to CBA.

In conclusion it can be hereby mentioned that the banking segment of Australia is expected to continue to thrive successfully in the upcoming years. Based on the top down analysis, it can be hereby concluded that the banking segment of Australia has to great extent contributed hugely to then national income as well as the gross domestic product of the nation Australia. Based on the bottom down evaluation of the key financial ratios, it can be hereby assessed that the company Westpac has performed relatively better than that of the CBA as regards liquidity as well as profitability. Furthermore, the bank decides on for an efficient dividend policy for the shareholders and this specific strategy have a relative influence on the overall prices of shares of CBA.

Besides this, bottom down analysis represents the fact that the corporation CBA has strived to restrain specific operating expense and flow of liquidity status within the corporation during the past financial years. Contrarily, the organization Westpac has effectively maintained a consistent pattern of liquidity along with margin of profitability in the past few years, although, the overall revenue from sales is on the downward trend.

Essentially, top down analysis conducted in this study represents that the entire Australian economy is consistently developing and is steadily moving up in the current years. Nevertheless, in the preceding years, specific deficit in the current account, recorded rate of interest along with the rate of employment was on the rising trend during the preceding years. Thus, from the viewpoint of a financier, it can be suggested that an financier need to invest on essentially both the firms for a long term period. Again, from the perspective of short term, it can be mentioned that Westpac can provide higher return to a financier, whilst, from the perspective of long term, CBA can provide higher return to particular financier.

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